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Originally Posted by DaFace
In the next year? Sure. I'd definitely wager that it's about as likely that we get hit by an asteroid in the next year as it is that half the world's population would be infected by Coronavirus. I mean, it's been active in China for two months now, and it's now up to a whopping 0.006% of their population.
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Most of the virus experts think that China has only reported a fraction actual cases. Which is good and bad news. Bad because it means it is more easily spread. Good that the actual death rate is much lower.
China has also taken draconian quarantine measures that are not going to be replicated everywhere. Now that there are hundreds of cases in Iran, and they are not taking serious measures, we will likely learn a lot fairly shortly.
I’m not in the sky is falling camp. But this is much more serious than the chance of a large asteroid strike. I would say it is more like the risk of Miami getting a direct hit from a hurricane this year or LA having the Big earthquake.