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Old 01-12-2022, 01:03 PM   #670
WilliamTheIrish WilliamTheIrish is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow View Post
I thought this was a thread just to have a fun exercise to try and call what you thought the narrative would have been if the NFL were fixing games. Boy was I under the wrong impression.

Now it's witchcraft.

Next will be an explanation straight from an episode of Ancient Aliens explaining how there are signs from 3200 BC that extraterrestrials would fix games nearly 5000 years later.

This is ridiculous.

If the NFL is fixing games, you would think it would assuredly be to maximize profit.

Most of the profits for the NFL are in pre-negotiated TV contracts, so that seems moot. Conspiracy theorists seem to think that if you give viewers a narrative they expect, they are more likely to continue viewing. I don't know if that works in sports. I certainly don't appreciate watching the same teams in the playoffs year after year except for my team. I think most watchers would feel the same way. The driver here would then be for the NFL to continually put only the biggest markets in the playoffs every year. That doesn't happen with regularity and certainly not with the consistency that would lead me to claim rigging.

Next up would be merchandising and licensing. Obviously, bigger market teams winning helps drive that up some but I don't know if the revenue bump is big enough for the NFL to risk fixing games for it, especially considering its only 10% of overall revenues.

Ticket sales and concessions are an even smaller slice of the revenue pie, so I don't know that there would be any reason there. Conspiracy theorists still point to this as a big reason to fix games. They claim they want to sell as many tickets as possible to maximize these revenues. What NFL stadium doesn't sell out for a playoff game? Seriously delusional.

The other part of the argument here is related to creating false rivalries to maximize ticket sales and overall national viewing interest. What? For real? So, for instance, the Chiefs and Bills don't have a natural rivalry so let's create one in order to maximize interest in the game. That seems relatively far-fetched. The NFL is going to fix select games in order to drive two particular teams into having a rivalry? I just can't wrap my head around this one. That means both teams would at least already have to be good enough for it to matter, which means playoff quality to begin with. Surely this narrative cannot be applicable to the Lions and Jaguars squaring off. And so, it makes no sense.

The final argument I found is that the NFL purposefully fixes only high-stakes matchups (the AFC/NFC Championships and the Super Bowl, primarily) to ensure that there is a specific, desired outcome for the Super Bowl that is beneficial to profits. Well, most Super Bowls are blowouts, so that largely breaks the fixing of the championship games to lead to a most competitive and profitable Super Bowl. Was KC v TB a better matchup than GB v BUF would have been? Doubtful. TB pulled off 4 upsets last year to win it all. They won 5v4, 5v2, 5v1, and 5v1 match-ups. Was that good for football? Did everyone want to see Tom Brady win it again?

So, I can't really pinpoint why the NFL would try to fix games for profit, and it doesn't seem a likely narrative. So, why would they fix games? Some think a specific ownership group gets all the calls their way. If that's the case, and the players recognize it, why don't more free agents go to these teams only and not split themselves across the league? Players want to win, deep down. It's not only about money. My answer is that I don't think the NFL fixes games.

I do, however, think that there are corrupt officials that do fix games for personal gains. I do suspect those gains are primarily related to the sports betting world and there is plenty of historical evidence to support this across all sports. I would not be surprised if some owners kicked in some cash, but I don't think it's rooted at the league level.

I think that officials being bribed and rewarded for fixing select games is much easier to justify, as it supports how sporadic the "fixed games" appear to be in terms of timing and matchup.

Not nearly enough …’s. You need way, way more …’s
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