[alnorth]

Anyone want to put up their super-early predictions? We all can reserve the right to change our minds up to the end of spring training.

Last year I said they were roughly an 85-86 win team and would barely miss the 2nd wild card. I do not believe the Royals over or underachieved (though they were unusually healthy), a few players did well and a few did poorly but overall it was pretty much as expected. (Though if you want to be glass half-full, throw away May and look how good the record is then)

I believe that on paper, if there are no other significant moves, then the Royals have improved by about 3 games even with the Loss of Santana. Replacing our 2B black hole with a credible hitter makes an enormous difference, and we also won't have to watch a few months of Frenchy. Vargas probably helps mitigate some of the loss in the rotation. Those moves are probably worth about 4 wins, and I knock one win back off by assuming we won't be as lucky with the DL this season; someone important will miss some time.

So, 88-89 wins. I also think the Tigers got worse on paper, but it won't be quite enough. (though this season we won't need to be quite as lucky to catch them as we needed in 2013) The division race will not be lost until September, the Royals will grab the last wild card and play for the right to face whoever the best team in the AL ends up being in the ALDS, probably Texas.