Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man
Interesting thought, but I don't think that I'd do it on first glance. Onside kicks don't work very often these days, so the odds are very strong that you're giving the other team the ball at your own 40 to 50. That may not tilt the odds of giving up a touchdown substantially, but it does tilt those odds. More importantly, it makes the odds of giving up a field goal very high, which means that you'd be required to come back with a score.
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Remember that if you recover the onside kick you only need a field goal to win the game. So it's not just straight % recover vs. % give up TD. I feel like people aren't factoring that in.
You probably need to weight recover heavier due to only needed to go 20 yards or w/e for a fairly easy FG attempt to win the game outright.