Quote:
Originally Posted by tk13
There's an assumption here that we're way, way, way off on the number of people who've had it. And maybe we are that far off, which is a major guessing game.
The problem is even if we are off by that much, we still might need 60-70% of the country to still get it to achieve herd immunity.
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Yeah, that's what I'm concerned about as well. The highest estimates I've seen for NYC are in the 20-25% range. In theory, then, we'd need triple the number of deaths there to reach herd immunity. That's...not a fun thing to think about. Additionally, we'd have far further to go everywhere else.
If we were to 100% give up on social distancing and just say **** it in favor of going for herd immunity, we'd be talking about deaths in the millions even in the "best case" scenario.