Quote:
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch
What I'm suggesting is pay the full fortune to get him now, use him this season and next hoping to win a title, then trade his last year to the team that's ready to open the coffers.
He is only in arbitration now so the payroll cost would be low.
So you pay X to land him, then trade him either in the offseason or trade deadline when he is on his last year for Y return.
X would be greater than Y, but possibly not by that much. Cause 1 year of Soto is gonna get you a hefty return on the back end.
I dont think it will actually happen that way, and if it does, the Cards are just one of several teams that could do it. But I read about this scenario in a MLBTR chat and so I couldnt help but post about it here to look savvy.
|
Uh.
His arb2 salary smashed the record. He's making $17.1 million this year. And he's a Super 2 guy so his Arb 3 and 4 years are gonna be MASSIVE. Betts presently has the record at $27 million. I'm guessing Soto gets $30 in his final year of eligibility and probably about $25 in the year prior.
So the payroll hit is gonna be in the $50-55 million range over the next two seasons. Surplus value on that if he hits like he can hit is probably $35-40 million over those two years but you get no additional 'franchise equity' boost because you can't count on building around him.
So you pay exclusively for the surplus value. That's 6-7 wins (my calculus is more conservative than sportswriters but also more in line for how teams actually pay for these guys).
The average WARP for a prospect ranked around Gorman was ranked is going to be in the 18-20 range. Now that's over his complete 6 years so that figure won't be pure surplus. Over the first 3 years you figure on a guy getting about 1/3 of that figure - so in terms of pure surplus (when he's cheap pre-arb) you're looking at about 6-7 WAR.
For JUST those two+ seasons at his likely salary level, you're looking at a surplus value proposition of roughly Nolan Gorman.
There is just a zero percent chance the Nationals trade him for that. And the 'full freight' cost you're talking about is going to be greater than the Cardinals can (or probably should) be willing to stomach for those 2 years. Walker/Winn/Gorman will DWARF that surplus value over their 6 years of control.
If you can extend him - do what it takes. If you can't, sit it out or maybe offer them Gorman and a second arm (a McGreevy sort).
I don't know that either of those scenarios are terribly realistic.