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This market is on fire right now but I am thinking it's about time for a correction and I am starting to see early, early signs. But with it being Dec. and holiday season it's tough to tell. I fully expect a crap January if not a crap 1st quarter. The 10 year Treasury is yielding 2.48% and rising. I see 2.75% in the very near future and if we get 2 more rate hikes I see it hitting 3%. It may do that on 1 hike.
I think you are going to see some "savers" slowly start to exit the stock market as yields become more attractive in the bond and money markets.
Real Estate is slated to have a good year but rising rates are going to have some effect but it's unclear as to the extent of how much.
Small cap stocks might be the sweet spot this coming year. They tend to do good in a rising interest rate environment since they do not have the interest rate sensitivity that larger companies have.
D.C. can hit a grand slam if the Trump Admin. starts to pursue an infrastructure bill. GDP is probably going to be consistently over 3% and might push 3.5%. Rising wages are on the horizon as well. So ignore the typical bantering about deficits. If Trump goes for an infrastructure bill, the Democrats will risk annihilation in 2018 if they aren't on board with it.
My worry is the BitCoin craze. This reminds me of the .com bubble. It was the bubble that finally took us to a correction and recession for that matter. I don't know about recession but a correction is long overdue. BitCoin bursting can possibly be the straw that breaks the back of the camel and send us down 10% or so.
However, what we've seen this year is the impact of the robo-trade. Instead of typical corrections we have had periods of flat to slightly down markets where we saw a lot of sector rotation. With the advent of computers it happens so fast and precise that you don't really get a sell off but a flattening. We saw this the last month or so with techs taking a hit while industrials rose.
This is an investors' market right now and not a traders' market. How long that lasts, who knows? Volatility will return at some point and traders will pounce. Until then the trend is still strong to the upside.
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