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Originally Posted by O.city
We’re finding there’s so many cases of mild to no symptoms, these numbers are kinda getting hollow to me. I’m no epidemiologist or data guy but it seems this is all coming from unknown data sets.
Basically there may be a huge number of people out there who’ve been exposed, weren’t tested and are now immune. Of course you’d need serology tests to check for antibodies.
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I’m not trying to downplay anything and certainly not going to claim victory on anything at this point or ever really because there so many variables. I am just remaining optimistic and hopeful. But I’ve been beating this drum for a while and hope I’m right. I just don’t buy that if this thing is as contagious as we thought that it got here in late January and decided to take a month long break before spreading and having any affect. I suspect thousands of people got it without really knowing it and of course it keeps growing and now there are probably easily 100k with it. And if that’s the case it hasn’t yet overrun the health care system in that whole time. So though it’s bad and especially so for certain groups, it more closely resembles the flue in severity than some of the other outbreaks and what it has been suggested a being.
Now if that’s not true that aren’t that many cases then it’s not nearly as contagious as once thought. Because we know it’s been here since late January. That’s just what we know. It could have been here sooner given people come here from China all the same.
These two propositions do not coexist. It’s one or the other. I do believe it’s more of the contagious option with many more cases than known though just based on how common transmission seems to be amongst close groups such as the NBA players or localized outbreaks like the nursing home or northern Italy getting hit hard very quickly, way worst than areas like Rome which had it at the same time to start.
All that said of course we should do everything we can to understand it, treat it, and hopefully get a vaccine as soon as possible. Also ensuring healthcare facilities are able and prepared as best as possible so foregoing elective surgeries, limiting visitors, etc are all great ideas. The getting rid of large gatherings and putting limits on those also seem perfectly reasonable. But the idea of forced closures, shutting whole cities down, fines, etc. seems to have gotten a bit too much too quickly. I could probably even be convinced localized areas doing this is okay very temporarily with proper communication such as don’t go buy everything at the grocery stores all at once. It’s creating a lot more problems and uncertainty though.
I think this will end up being a pretty common thing to catch in the future but I don’t expect it to have some devastating return in the winter all at once because I do think it’s already very common so as winter returns people will get it but they won’t do so all at once or in the same region all at once as it will no longer be new. This will prevent healthcare from being overrun similar to the flu. It’s common and you don’t want to get it but you are never necessarily worried about being able to get treated. And judging by the medical community reaction to this I fully expect a vaccine and effective treatments much sooner than later. So perhaps this is entirely too optimistic but it’s the feeling I get and I along with everyone else probably hope I’m right.
The only thing I don’t really know and wonder about is if a vaccine and treatments are developed, how likely is it, or is it even possible, to completely eliminate it?