[duncan_idaho]

The 3-pitch mantra really speaks to upside and is dependent on how good each pitch is.

A guy with a plus or better fastball and a plus or better breaking ball can get away with a “show-me” pitch for his third pitch easier than a guy with an average fastball and breaking ball.

Command plays up every pitch. Tunneling (having each pitch come out of the same delivery point) plays up every pitch. Having a plus plus pitch also let’s you get away with lesser secondaries or command.

Top of rotation guys are going to have some
Combination of 2 plus tools and 2 average tools.

Mid rotation guys will have at least 1 plus tool and a few average ones.

Ventura had a double-plus fastball and a plus curve. He was flashing a plus changeup and improved command at the end of the 16 season, which makes his death all the more tragic.

Vargas has a plus changeup but a below average FB. That makes his command critical, as well as spotting his CB, critical. When he doesn’t have those, he gets crushed.

Duffy, when he was pitching like a ToR guy in 14, 16, and 17, had a plus fastball (some nights even double-plus), and a breaking ball and changeup that were both average. He usually was able to ramp one up to plus status each time out (and when he had both, he did things like strike out 17 guys in a game). The past few years, his FB has lost just a smidge, and he hasn’t consistently found his change or slider. That’s why he has been so up and down. He hasn’t ever developed the plus command he’d need to overcome the slight loss of “stuff.”