Quote:
Originally Posted by Matter2003
I don't think that at all. I think we have a legit shot at winning this game.
I said in the other thread probably 60-40 favoring the Chiefs, but if we win it won't be some flukiness, we will have earned it.
538's model favors the Chiefs 52-48% and says the actual line should be Chiefs -0.5 points.
ESPN's FPI says with Mahomes the Chiefs win 61% of the time, which is pretty close to what I said. It's one game, anything can happen. Over a 7 game series I wouldn't like our chances. In a single game, I feel a little better.
Chiefs are the reigning champs but they are not infallible.
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Football can be such a weird sport. There are games I feel like the Chiefs are in total control the entire game that end up as one of those "didn't win by enough" games.... the difference between a one possession lead or 4 possession lead can literally be the execution or lack there of on a few third downs, a few untimely penalties, etc.
I'm in the range that the Chiefs would win ~6 or 7 times out of 10. Just like with guessing the Browns were in the ~7-8 range (and now I'd say 8-9 range), leaning towards the potential randomness and of course right now Mahomes' health potentially having an impact.
OTOH, every other AFC team has been disappointing this playoff season, so I can't decide if I'm just buying into the hype.