I don't think I'm doing this right, or WAR for pitchers is useless. It looks like Hochevar had a 1.5 WAR last year.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...943&position=P
And Shields has a 4.3 WAR. Hochevar was 8-16 in 32 starts last year; I think it is reasonable to think that Shields will be better than 11-13 with the Royals if he makes 32 starts and that the Royals will have a better chance to win in the 8 no decision starts that he makes.