Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief
I don’t know whom you speak to. I worked at Goldman Sachs for a decade and was a managing director on the US Treasury Desk. Since then I’ve worked at a hedge fund as a portfolio manager. I can assure you that people I speak to on a daily basis think Trump is a prime reason the curve has inverted. And why? Simply, his trade policies have put a crimp in the global supply chain, increased uncertainty, and slowed global growth. If you want to go deeper, he crafted a stimulus package that was completely unnecessary (and in the end also far less effective) when the economy was at or near ‘full employment,’ which prompted the Fed to raise rates faster than they otherwise would’ve done. This did nothing to increase ‘trend growth’ or the supply side of the economy as had been promised.
I’m no fan of Trump and I realize I’m arguing with somewho would has a sig celebrating him, but this is my view as a market participant, not as someone who is politically biased.
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I've heard all that before from a few and I call bullshit. That just sounds like partisan bullshit. Your opinion on his "stimulus policy" is just that. Your political bias was injected several posts back and again at the end of your post here. The Fed raised too far, too fast and it had little to do with any tax cuts or trade policies. AS usual, the Fed ****ed up and they have a history of doing so. Not to mention the trillions of $'s in negative yields globally that existed before Trump. Europe has been a shit hole for a long time. I think in a previous post you eluded to negative rates being a reason for inversion and you should stick more to that than a President wielding power to invert the yield curve.
We'll just have to agree to disagree here as you are apparently unable to have a debate on the matter without accusing those who may disagree with you of doing it out of political bias. Then again you blasted me the night all the Reek news broke claiming I was ignoring all this "evidence" and just rushing to defend Reek because I said from the off that something about the story was not right. And we saw how that worked out.
Clearly you're a professional in the game but there are lots of professionals in the game. Many with differing opinions than yours.