Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
Given that photovoltaic production has followed Moore's Law, they should be able to provide the majority of the world's energy needs within fifteen years. Supplement that with nuclear energy, wind energy, and hydrocarbons, and it seems like a wise investment to me.
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Unfortunately that's not true, as much as I wish it was. PV cells have theoretical efficiency limits. It would take massive magical leaps in tech that no one has any clue about at this point for us to reach even 80%. That is just in THEORY... in real world production terms you will be lucky to see production of cells that can hit 60% in our lifetime. Of course that is a huge jump from what we have right now on the market.
So let's play with the numbers a bit... I'll give you a TRULY 50% efficient panel (which is completely made up and not likely to hit the market in any significant quantity for 20 years). Ok now let's look at how much energy is in sunlight. The best estimate for a sunny day is around 1KW/m2 per hour. So, now let's take into account the number of hours of sunlight per day average for an average American city.. about 5 hours(this varies WILDLY but mostly falls in the 4 to 6 range).
So that leaves us with a whopping 5KW/m2 per day. oops. but we need to cut that in half(50% efficiency) now we get 2.5KW/m2 per day.
Ok now let's go back to the Tesla. The average American drives 15000 miles a year. That comes out to 11 to 12 KW hours per day. So JUST to power your car you need about 5 m2 of solar panel (again, mythical super solar panels). 50 sq ft of panels just to run YOUR car.
I'm all about alternative energy and diversification... but solar is a really shitty source.