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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
I agree with the premise of the return - that to get someone who can be a difference maker for Merrifield - you now need to be looking at the guys who COULD move drastically up the list in the next year. That's where the market has gone.
But there's still an incredible amount of variance in those types of players. And I think that's still the type of talent you're looking at in return for him with three.five years or two years of control left, or even one.five years of control left.
Re: the variance, take Carlson and Khalil Lee and compare the two. They're the same age, have similar toolsets, and had very similar 2018 campaigns (Carlson was .246/.348/.390 at A+ and A in 18, Lee was .263/.348/.390 at A+ and AA). Lee progressed at a solid rate in 2019 but didn't take off like Carlson. Which outcome is more likely when you're working with players like that?
I'm willing to be patient on that. I think you can get someone with that profile as the centerpiece down the road for Merrifield. I wouldn't pull the trigger on something like that now, personally.
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Yeah, the volatility of those guys is a problem. But at the same time, there's plenty of volatility in the top 50 guys in their own right. So you're working with a lot of bust potential either way.
Which is why I think you're better served with 2 of the 'pre-breakout' types than you are 1 of the guys in that 30-50 range.
Now if you can get a top 20 guy, do that - sure. But I don't think you can. I think the best case scenario is a headliner of an Evan White type and if that's the piece you're looking for, you're gonna get 1 of him and then some organizational filler in all likelihood. Maybe someone like the Cards got in Genesis Cabrera who's unlikely to have ever hit a prospect list but has the raw stuff you'd like to see.
So if the question is 1 2019 Evan White w/ a 60% bust rate or 2 2018 Evan White's with an 80% bust rate, I think you take the latter with the hope that one of those two guys does take that big step forward and gives you a higher ceiling to go with a similar overall likelihood of success.