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Old 12-10-2012, 01:20 PM   #10457
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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Join Date: May 2001
Location: midtown KC
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so correct me if I'm wrong-

Here's our most used starters from last season, and their WAR #:

Mendoza +1.4
Chen 0.0
Hochevar -1.6
Sanchez -1.3
Guthrie +1.8
Will Smith +0.1
Everett Teaford +0.1
Vin Mazzaro -0.3

for a total of: 0.8 WAR. Understand that Hochevar's -1.6 weights a helluva lot more than Mendoza's +1.4 due to innings pitched, but what the hell. Let's say sample size holds up.

Here's your likely starters for 2013 and their likely WAR#:
James Shields +4.3
Jeremy Guthrie +2.2 (based on 2011 full season #'s. Also about a median for his last several seasons)
Ervin Santana +2.9 (based on his 2011 full season. also was 2.2 in 2010)
Wade Davis +1.1
Bruce Chen 0.0

for a :+10.5 DIFFERENCE in WAR not accounting for innings pitched or games started weighting. Just baseline total #'s. This also doesn't account for the return of Mendoza (+1.4) or Duffy (too small a sample size really) to push out a Chen or Davis to the bullpen.

Your weighted numbers would mean a lot more difference as you can see a big difference in +4.3 innings pitched versus, say, Hochevar's -1.6 over roughly the same number of innings.

So, yeah. the offseason pitching procurements should realistically project for a contending ballclub if all of the pitchers do about what they've done in the last couple of years. This also assumes Hosmer hits .220 or whatever for most of the year and Frenchy is a black hole in the lineup, etc.
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