Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
It didn't.
The Orioles were incredibly good/lucky in one-run games. You outperformed your pythag ratings by 11 games, the most in baseball by far. It was nearly 2x as big a difference as the next-closest team (San Francisco).
16-2 in extra innings. (next closest was 11-5. 20 percent gap in WP%)
29-9 in one run games. (+10 compared to league average)
Those are ratios that are highly unlikely to be repeated. Yes, Baltimore had an excellent bullpen in 2012... but even a LITTLE slippage from that group could blow up a lot of what made Baltimore's
It's perfectly possible Baltimore will win just as much in 2013, but the O's would need to be a much better team to do that. It's also possible the O's are actually BETTER in 2013 than 2012 but have a worse record.
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Spot on. Math is very clear that the O's are in trouble if they don't improve their actual team.