[DJ's left nut]

So I was kinda thinking out loud a bit this morning and was directed to Ozzie Smith as an obvious HoF 'peak defense, tolerable offense' HoF player. And my immediate reaction was to say "yeah, that seems about right"

But then I thought on it a little more and frankly, Ozzie's offense, though paltry and ineffective by today's standards, was actually pretty decent for the bulk of his career given his era. He made a ton of contact, stole bases and scored runs. He was an above average offensive player who was good at a style of game unique to the era. Moreover, Ozzie set the standard for defense at ANY position and I don't think he's been met since. I believe Ozzie Smith was the single greatest defensive player in baseball history.

Molina's offense for the majority of his career has been somewhat in line with the style at the time but I don't believe it's been as valuable to this era as Ozzies was to his era. Moreover, while Yadi may be among the best defensive catchers ever, I don't believe he is head and shoulders above a handful of contenders (as Ozzie is) nor do I believe he ranks with Ozzie as a purely transformational defensive player.

So by that review, I'd say he's the same kind of player and a similar analysis as Ozzie Smith...but not quite as good. Okay, so lets use the transitive property here. If 80% of Ozzie Smith = Yadier Molina, what's 80% of Ozzie Smith in a historic context?

Well damn...that's really really easy. That's Omar Vizquel.

Omar has 11 gold gloves, was the peak defender of his era, could be a complementary offensive player on a championship caliber ballclub, was a great leader and consummate professional. He's remarkably comparable to Molina if you're willing to consider across positions. And Omar is PROBABLY gonna make the Hall. It's gonna take some time, but he'll probably get there.

But it's not exactly a cinch. Even after this adjustment, Yadi remains firmly in the 'will probably get there after some effort' camp, IMO. And I'm not sure I agree with that conclusion (I think he should go in after maybe 2-3 years; not the 6-8 it could well take), but when you see what the voters are doing, I think that's probably what will happen.