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Old 11-24-2017, 08:03 PM   #106
aturnis aturnis is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cooper barrett View Post
The Tesla $150K BEV Semi that nobody will ever see.


Give us $200K up front for a cab only semi and sit back and wait..We will enjoy using your money while you look at pictures. We will b e raising sales prices, lowering payload amounts, and reevaluating cost savings projections.
While you wait you will find the Feds, states, and localities are going to raise taxes and increase restrictions on EV semis. Oh and when the batteries have to be redistributed for weight on the front axle.... you can cry about the promised range not becoming reality.

Just sounds like snake oil without all the data being developed after the fact...
Lol. Ok.

What about Tesla or any of Musks ventures gives you any reason to believe this will never exist? It's built, going through testing, it exists. It's a done deal. SUPER easy vehicle to build that could even be built by hand with decent margins. Same goes for the Roadster.

BTW, how do you know what the weight distribution is?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cooper barrett View Post
As a well known Trucking author and analyst said: "If I were still in the business and needed replacement or additional trucks for short routes I would go back to the used truck market for at least the next three years. I would wait for the BEV trucks coming out over the next couple of years to prove themselves before taking the plunge, giving time for Tesla and others to build out their recharging networks.
I mean, that makes sense if you don't understand the costs of opex in logistics and their impact on final product costs. Transport is a profit 5% margin industry. She's looking for an upgrade. Surely not the guy in the semi seat, but certainly the man in the real driver's seat.

Your author doesn't seem to understand that charging will likely initially be installed at the main distribution hub where the trucks are parked at night, and at their destinations to allow charging whole unloading.

Not only that, but they'll likely continue building their own, and partnering with gas stations and truck stops to install them at existing fueling points.

As for proving themselves, LOLWUT? Electric motors are a far and away proven tech. As for the batteries, I think those too can be considered proven. A possible moot point though as the batteries might be leased to give operators peace of mind.

I spoke with a diesel mechanic friend of mine, he says he expects adoption pretty quickly as diesel is currently about as efficient as we can make it.

My dad, who used to own his own long haul trucking company, agrees. He's a hater, but seems to be bitterly impressed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cooper barrett View Post
The addition of a founder's series truck just appears to be a desperate cash grab from Musk and company."
Desperate? They do a Founders Series for every vehicle. Semis are the hardest use case of daily transport to figure out how to electrify. You figure this out, it becomes blatantly obvious that everything else is possible. No more excuses for existing industry. Hence the reason EVERYBODY has admitted defeat and is going all electric.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cooper barrett View Post
I would suggest you buy as many "Founder's semis as your cash flow can afford, Wait for the real specs and costs to be announced and total ignore what Cummin's and others are working on.
I mean, I will ignore Cummins and all of their friends. So far, all they've accomplished is a Class 7 with 100 miles of range, and Daimler managed a Class 8 with 220. Not terribly compelling.

What happens when Tesla unveils the prototype for the concept rendering of their medium duty truck and eats everyone's lunch there too? All that will be left is taking down consumer trucks, which again, shouldn't be too hard.

You need to realize this is about understanding how to generate and store electricity EFFICIENTLY, and apply that tech to an inherently efficient vehicle design. Something existing industry has shown no real understanding of. The US is ESPECIALLY far behind in this regard.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cooper barrett View Post
55 Tesla Semis are all that have been tendered by $5K deposits and ZERO takers for the Founders edition At $200K for the dopisit with no set price.. I wonder why?
Hold on here. Without Tesla releasing any pre-order info, where did you get these silly numbers that obviously are not grounded in reality?

We know that day one, 3 buyers reported ordering 55 semis between them. Many more also pre ordered semis that night, beings the big movers in the industry were all there to see it first hand.

Meanwhile, Tesla has reported their expected costs. With the cost being so shockingly low, I can only expect orders will go up.

With the payback for the added capex in the US under 2 years for a heavily used rig and less than a year in Canada and Europe, this is a no brainer.

Over the million miles Tesla is guaranteeing the drivetrain for, the savings from operating this truck will pay for 3 more brand new semis.



Tesla stock isn't about a car company. The stock is about the batteries and the itunes model of selling the hardware AND the music. Or the phone AND the software. Driving your own demand. In other words, selling the car, and the fuel. The big 3, and their eastern counterparts don't seem to get that either.

Hell, they resisted so hard knowing it was superior tech. For what? They didn't want to upset the apple cart for their friends in oil and the parts industries? With electrification, both of those industries are next to dead.

You should really get on board. 30% of US carbon emissions are from transport. A number easily brought down through electrification.

Cool fact, in order to drive a Model S 300 miles, it takes about the same amount of electricity as powering your house for 3-4 days. Get one or two of these in every driveway and we WILL need new baseload power. Which, beings NEW baseload capacity is MUCH cheaper to deploy with renewables than fossil fuels(cheaper than nuclear too), Tesla again stands to gain as they make solar panels AND the cheapest best performing batteries available.

DOE expected electric cars to be cheaper that their comparable ICE counterparts within 6 years, published last year(?). Tesla seems to be really early to that party.

The magic number for battery cost is $100/kWh. Based on the semi and Roadster, if Tesla isn't there already, they are CRAZY close. WAY ahead of expectations. Meanwhile, the rest of industry is still aiming for early to mid 2020's.

How on earth can you trust Wall Street mouth pieces who claimed to see no synergies between batteries, electric cars, and solar while Tesla was in the process of acquiring SolarCity? They're all a bunch of rubes. Tesla seems to progress to new victories seemingly ever other day, yet 9/10 articles about them are decidedly negative. It's pretty obvious there's a strong smear campaign being run.

"Their balance sheet, blah blah blah". This is the silicon valley business model. The Street HATES it, but only b/c it breaks their system. Add in a CEO with a value of 20 billion and a "not afraid to lose it all" mentality, I don't think we'll see Tesla sunk. Unless of course the illuminati are real, lol.

How can so many be against an American company with the most American made auto products in the world? I'll never understand it. Do you really want China to own the future?

Last edited by aturnis; 11-24-2017 at 08:10 PM..
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