Not much going on right now, so this is a fun topic/post.
The margin for spending to cover up mistakes is going to shrink once Mahomes and Jones are extended. There is no doubt about that.
I disagree that the team is not set up great for 2021, though. They'll be starting the year with answers at:
QB1
WR1
TE1 (really a #2 receiver)
RB1
LT and RT
2 lead pass rushers (Jones and Clark)
NT
Both starting S
Those are cornerstone positions. Any time you can look at a year and say you're good at the cornerstone spots for your schemes, is a year you ARE set up great, IMO.
And Gay, Hardman, Ward, Niang, and Saunders offer "star" upside at several additional positions.
In my view, if you have QB, your top two pass targets, a third offensive weapon, and bookend tackles set going into a year, you're in good shape on offense. You need to fill in some piece, but you're looking for complementary guys, not stars.
On defense, if you have your top two pass rushers and two key members of your back seven addressed, you're again looking for complementary players and scheme fits.
So I think they're starting from a strong position with need to fill in complementary and depth pieces.
I agree with Crow that LB is likely the top place you draft heading into 2021. I'm very excited about Gay and what his athleticism can bring to KC at that spot, but they WILL need to find another quality starter at that position. I'd place WR/TE as my second priority after that. You're going to need an offensive weapon ready to take over for Kelce as he starts to slow down, but in my view that doesn't HAVE to be a TE.
Continuing to draft well is going to be a pretty big deal. There are a lot of players to keep an eye on this year that can positively or negatively affect the outlook, though.
From this list of guys:
- Hardman (need him to step up and be more than a gadget guy)
- CEH (Need him to be as dangerous as it looks like he can be)
- Niang (is he recovered? Can he fill in at least as a good swing T or maybe hold up at RG?)
- Gay (does his athleticism translate? And to what level? Is he a force multiplier?)
- Thornhill (recovered?)
- Saunders (does he take a step and become even better at using his athleticism to disrupt and make plays?)
- Ward (does he continue to progress as a quality starting CB, worthy of a longer deal and someone you build the secondary around?)
- Felton/Sneed/Keyes (Is one of them capable of being a starting-quality oustide CB?)
if most of them hit, you're in really good shape in 2021, IMO. Because again, you're trying to fill in some complementary pieces. You can draft for skill/impact and not need in the early rounds of the draft.
If most of them miss, the situation becomes a lot more dire.
As long as KC continues to provide Mahomes 3 good passing game weapons (in whatever configuration of positions you want) and a good pair of T, the offense can be filled in cheaply and still be good.
As long as the defense has a couple of disruptive pass rushers, and 2-3 good pieces in the back 7, you can fill in around that with guys who can "do their job" and still be a quality unit.
Personally, I'm really excited about Clyde Edwards-Helaire because I think it positions you to be OK with a step back at WR, because he's so dynamic in the passing game. I'm really excited about Gay because his athleticism sets him up to be a potential force multiplier type at the second level, a 3-down LB who is dynamic against the run, dangerous as a blitzer, fast enough to get to the flats as a pass defender or the edge on stretch runs, and quick/athletic enough to drop into zones against the pass.
I'm really excited about Niang because, to me, it looks like they stole a first-round talent at one of those cornerstone positions.
And Hardman? With a year in the offense and a good offseason, that's a guy who could really explode as a dynamic weapon against single coverage, which he's going to consistently be seeing.