Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Pretty much an exactly 'fair' deal by my general view on the value of a win and how I'd project his age 31-34 seasons.
I mean everyone that still parrots that reeruned $8 million+ win share bullshit (they're actually trying to push that to $9 million now) will go sucking Moe's dick but by a reasonable breakdown of what teams actually consider good contracts (vs. simply averaging out all the shit they have to eat because of guaranteed deals), you can see this is a reasonably fair deal for both sides.
I'd say the range of possible outcomes over that contract is something between $105-110 million of 'value' on the high end (presuming slight drop off and steady inflation in player salaries) to around $35-$40 million presuming a year lost to injury, more aggressive drop off and a flat revenue curve in baseball.
Shoot for the middle of those and you're looking at $70-75 million as a reasonable middle ground with both sides accepting similar risk.
There are a bunch of different ways to look at this deal and every way I look at it says that something from $65 to about $76 million seems close enough in the margins to not care either way.
It's a fair deal - I can live with that.
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Always enjoy reading your analysis after a move