Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe
Right.
What I'm talking about is the baseline on the other data set on the graph - the binary value for success vs. failure.
If you start at the top and start down, the conversation could get very complicated because success is so subjective.
However, the totality of being a bust is much less subjective. People more often agree on who is a bust vs. who is an all-star.
So that gives you a somewhat objective starting point, at the bottom and working up.
|
I think what it shows for success is that the most sure thing top prospects are still only a 50/50 chance. Basically, 50/50 is as good as it gets with projecting QB's to the NFL. Anything less than that top group and the odds decrease immensely.
A good argument for taking a shot. Especially when they rarely come along.