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WAR Predictions for 2013 KC rotation:
1) James Shields - 4.0 WAR (I think fwar is better for pitchers, and he's over 4 in each of the past two years)
2) Jeremy Guthrie - 2.5 WAR (this is in line with his production in Baltimore. Given a full season in KC, I think he slightly over-performs that.
3) Ervin Santana - 2.0 WAR (This is the toughest one to hedge. At his best, he's a 4 WAR guy. But he also can be a negative, like he was a season ago)
4) Wade Davis - 2.0 WAR (Another tough one... his most productive seasons were as a reliever or in partial duty. Projecting a little here and expecting to pitch like a solid 3/4 guy.
5) Bruce Chen - 1.5 WAR (Has been consistently in this ballpark for KC)
Compare that to last season's rotation, which was headed by Chen's 1.2 WAR, the negative value of Hochevar, and a bunch of replacement level guys.
It's a bonus. Not enough to get the Royals there by itself, but an upgrade nontheless.
If Hosmer and Moustakas aren't productive this year, none of this likely matters.
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