I'd say it swings from a healthy Mahomes-led team winning 7 or 8 times out of 10, to a Henne-led team winning
maybe 3 times out of 10?
At the same time, there's been so much hype around them and the Browns, Ravens, etc.... and it's all been bullshit up to this point.
It's hard to give them more than a ~25-30% chance of winning in that case, but my mind is set on it being the freakin' AFCCG, and thinking Henne could lead them to the Super Bowl just doesn't compute.