***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

I wonder if the media/health officials will continue to paint a doom and gloom picture for a while even when we begin to see the curve flatten? I’m guessing the minute the health officials state that there is improvement and the curve is flattening out, youre going to have part of the population resume their daily routine as much as possible and then we will see an explosion of new cases again due to this...

Ill keep the poltical stuff in DC but I think we all know the answer to your question. Scary articles get clicks.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

They updated this - Holy smokes things have changed.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Looking better and hopefully it is fairly accurate. MO's peak moved from middle of May to April 19th.

[RollChiefsRoll]

So let’s say we finally get the curve flattened out. Then what? If we’re released back into the wild without easy access to rapid-results testing, won’t there be another spike?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by RollChiefsRoll

So let’s say we finally get the curve flattened out. Then what? If we’re released back into the wild without easy access to rapid-results testing, won’t there be another spike?

Possibly. Looking at the latest model from IHME we should slowly be opening things up by June 1

[Donger]

So, the reduced number of new cases yesterday held. So did deaths.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by RollChiefsRoll

So let’s say we finally get the curve flattened out. Then what? If we’re released back into the wild without easy access to rapid-results testing, won’t there be another spike?

Yea that is actually a good possibility, some places that did well early like Taiwan started to open things up and then they get hit with a second wave.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by RollChiefsRoll

So let’s say we finally get the curve flattened out. Then what? If we’re released back into the wild without easy access to rapid-results testing, won’t there be another spike?

We need to open shit up asap but somehow keep older people and those with underlying conditions sheltered a bit longer IMO. Maybe keep social distancing in place but let non essential small businesses open as well?

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by Donger

So, the reduced number of new cases yesterday held. So did deaths.

Not sure I trust Sunday numbers. Deaths for las Sunday were significantly lower than the day before as well.

[Mecca]

Just give everyone a copy of FF7, no one will go anywhere.

[O.city]

Well we’re coming in we’ll under the models predictions so that’s good

The parameters they’re using have to be off or something

[Donger]

Originally Posted by penguinz

Not sure I trust Sunday numbers. Deaths for las Sunday were significantly lower than the day before as well.

Yes, but cases weren't. I presume that not many people gathering the data are taking days off, Sunday or not.

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Originally Posted by O.city

Well we’re coming in we’ll under the models predictions so that’s good

The parameters they’re using have to be off or something

This week feels a lot like 3rd and 7 that we have to convert in order to stay in the game to have a chance to win.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

Well we’re coming in we’ll under the models predictions so that’s good

The parameters they’re using have to be off or something

The stay at home orders\social distancing are working well. It also helps outside of NY and maybe Chicago we don't rely on mass transportation much and we are spread out more. Unlike China\Europe.

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, but cases weren't. I presume that not many people gathering the data are taking days off, Sunday or not.

Agreed

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

We need to open shit up asap but somehow keep older people and those with underlying conditions sheltered a bit longer IMO. Maybe keep social distancing in place but let non essential small businesses open as well?

Unfortunately the list of underlying condition would included a large portion of the population.(heart disease, lung disease, asthma, COPD, cancer, immunocompromised , GI and liver disease, hypertension , diabetes, obesity)