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Old 04-03-2016, 09:48 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***



And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

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Old 06-26-2016, 08:27 PM   #2371
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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This year for sure. Dozier and Bonafacio might be future options there as well.
I like Orlando and liked him much better than Alex Rios in 2015.

That said, I'd rather see Orlando traded than Eiber, Bonafacio or Dozier.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:28 PM   #2372
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I know it's not apples to apples, but he's got 14 already: 7 at AAA in about a month. Guy has damn good power for his age. He's one of the few guys that passes the eye test and the stats test. He's a very valuable commodity now - maybe our most valuable on the team when you factor service time
I absolutely agree. If the plate discipline he showed in the minors starts appearing in major league at bats, then we have an asset that our lineup is badly lacking at the moment. Remember the impact Zo's discipline had on our offense? I wouldn't be surprised if Cutty could do the same once he fully adjusts to major league pitching.

As for his defense, he's young and athletic. Before this year they had talked about trying him in the OF as well. It's been a while since I've been this high on a prospect, (there's a reason the Royals made him untouchable at last year's deadline) so if we do decide to trade him, it better be a fleecing.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:32 PM   #2373
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Granted I'm a big Cuthbert fan... but I'd be hard pressed to trade him, just because of control. He has always looked the part to me. If you can combine him and Mondesi with Gordon and Perez... you've got 4 pieces of the 2018 Royals right there. If you can manage to re-sign a guy or two, we're going to be competitive. The pieces are there to build around.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:37 PM   #2374
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I absolutely agree. If the plate discipline he showed in the minors starts appearing in major league at bats, then we have an asset that our lineup is badly lacking at the moment. Remember the impact Zo's discipline had on our offense? I wouldn't be surprised if Cutty could do the same once he fully adjusts to major league pitching.

As for his defense, he's young and athletic. Before this year they had talked about trying him in the OF as well. It's been a while since I've been this high on a prospect, (there's a reason the Royals made him untouchable at last year's deadline) so if we do decide to trade him, it better be a fleecing.
His arm at 3B is plus, he covers decent ground (when he's not running into Salvy), he's got pop, and he's at .280 at age 23. He's a real badass. And the advanced stats say the same:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chesl...red-moustakas/
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:51 PM   #2375
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I just don't think the Royal can (or even should) go to $25 million per for Hosmer. He's a perfect fit for a team like the Dodgers, as he's a leader and a winner and they have basically unlimited pockets.

It sucks but it's reality.
Can they? I think absolutely, they can. They have very little payroll committed beyond 2017. As I pointed out, if they have cheap internal options at SS and 3B and 2B, they can carry a big salary for Hosmer in 2018 and 2019 and balance it out with pre-arb salaries at the other positions.

They have around $60 million in committed payroll for 2018, and that includes Kennedy picking up his player option (which he likely will). It also includes a starting LF, C, one RP (Soria) and another SP. Kelvin Herrera will still be under team control and probably will add another 8-10 million.

In the scenario I sketched, they'll likely be paying Mondesi around 600k, and around 750k-1m for Merrifield and Cuthbert. Even if they're paying Hosmer 25 million a year, that still leaves quite a bit of room under the current spending threshold (and that's if it doesn't continue to increase), as you're likely still sniffing around $100 million at that point.

If they solve RF internally, that's also likely a cheap position. Leaves KC really in position to only need to "pay" or "buy" CF on the position side of things.

They'd need 3 SP to fill out that rotation. That's the hairiest part, and this whole thing becomes more likely if one of them is filled with someone from the Strahm/Mills/Junis/Fernandez grouping (though I think Fernandez ends up in the pen).

I'm not saying it's likely. But it's possible.

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I don't either, but we need to get a starter this winter. And I mean like badly, even if it's a slight overpay. This rotation resembles one from a 68-94 team, not a playoff contender.
Just don't think they get a return for Moustakas that is nearly as impactful as he is on next year's team. Starting rotation will again get some bandaids and maybe another trade to try to address weaknesses, but I'd believe much more in it being built around minor league assets (Bonifacio, Dozier, etc) than an established one.

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So about Orlando. Is everyone comfortable with continuing to roll with him in RF this year and beyond?
I'm fine with him this year... was slow to come around, but he has earned it. As for next year, depends on how he does, but good defense plus a quality bat at a cheap price sounds good for 2017.

Re: Cuthbert playing 2B, they were getting pretty desperate for an answer there and were going to give it a go before the Moustakas injury, which changed the game.

I think he could MAYBE get by for a year or two, while he's young. He's got quick feet and a great arm and could play deep to compensate for what I'm assuming will be below-average range (not unlike Jon Schoop of Baltimore).

But with the way Merrifield has played (both with the bat and the glove), that door may have closed.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:12 PM   #2376
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I like Orlando and liked him much better than Alex Rios in 2015.

That said, I'd rather see Orlando traded than Eiber, Bonafacio or Dozier.
It will be interesting to see how Paulo holds up over a full year. He might be a great 4th OF option once Dyson is out.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:13 PM   #2377
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Fine with me if Hosmer goes to the Dodgers.

That way he can go to LA where no one outside of LA will remember that he went there.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:32 PM   #2378
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Fine with me if Hosmer goes to the Dodgers.

That way he can go to LA where no one outside of LA will remember that he went there.
The Daner never forgets.

Even though he hasn't seen a Dodgers game on TV for years due to the stupid Time Warner Cable debacle.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:35 PM   #2379
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I'm not saying it's likely. But it's possible.
What do you think the percentage that the Royals pay Hosmer enough to keep him in KC? 10%? 5%?

I don't want to see him leave because I really enjoy his leadership, infectious attitude and of course, his play on the field. I may be premature but I'm preparing myself for him to be gone by the end of 2017, if not after the All Star Break.

IF Dayton can trade him for some topline pitching that's controlled for years, I don't see how he could pass that up. We might be looking at another run that may last even longer than 2014-2015 due to the youth in currently on the 25 and in the system.

I may be in the minority but good grief, I'm dying for a real homegrown rotation that can lead this team for the better part of a decade.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:38 PM   #2380
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Can they? I think absolutely, they can. They have very little payroll committed beyond 2017. As I pointed out, if they have cheap internal options at SS and 3B and 2B, they can carry a big salary for Hosmer in 2018 and 2019 and balance it out with pre-arb salaries at the other positions.

They have around $60 million in committed payroll for 2018, and that includes Kennedy picking up his player option (which he likely will). It also includes a starting LF, C, one RP (Soria) and another SP. Kelvin Herrera will still be under team control and probably will add another 8-10 million.

In the scenario I sketched, they'll likely be paying Mondesi around 600k, and around 750k-1m for Merrifield and Cuthbert. Even if they're paying Hosmer 25 million a year, that still leaves quite a bit of room under the current spending threshold (and that's if it doesn't continue to increase), as you're likely still sniffing around $100 million at that point.

If they solve RF internally, that's also likely a cheap position. Leaves KC really in position to only need to "pay" or "buy" CF on the position side of things.

They'd need 3 SP to fill out that rotation. That's the hairiest part, and this whole thing becomes more likely if one of them is filled with someone from the Strahm/Mills/Junis/Fernandez grouping (though I think Fernandez ends up in the pen).

I'm not saying it's likely. But it's possible.



Just don't think they get a return for Moustakas that is nearly as impactful as he is on next year's team. Starting rotation will again get some bandaids and maybe another trade to try to address weaknesses, but I'd believe much more in it being built around minor league assets (Bonifacio, Dozier, etc) than an established one.



I'm fine with him this year... was slow to come around, but he has earned it. As for next year, depends on how he does, but good defense plus a quality bat at a cheap price sounds good for 2017.

Re: Cuthbert playing 2B, they were getting pretty desperate for an answer there and were going to give it a go before the Moustakas injury, which changed the game.

I think he could MAYBE get by for a year or two, while he's young. He's got quick feet and a great arm and could play deep to compensate for what I'm assuming will be below-average range (not unlike Jon Schoop of Baltimore).

But with the way Merrifield has played (both with the bat and the glove), that door may have closed.
The inability to develop cheap SP is the killer. At some point it would be nice to hit on a 22-23 year old pitcher that is going to be a consistent middle to top of the rotation guy for a half a decade.

I think we were fortunate for awhile with guys like Santana, Volquez, and Young but it seems lately we arent as lucky with guys like Medlen and Minor. Also Volquez and Youngs bubble appears to have burst.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:43 PM   #2381
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The inability to develop cheap SP is the killer. At some point it would be nice to hit on a 22-23 year old pitcher that is going to be a consistent middle to top of the rotation guy for a half a decade.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:55 PM   #2382
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That photo about sums it up. On the bright side of all the pitchers we have traded Odorizzi is the only one close to what I stated at the moment. So not much sellers remorse.
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Old 06-26-2016, 10:16 PM   #2383
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What do you think the percentage that the Royals pay Hosmer enough to keep him in KC? 10%? 5%?

I don't want to see him leave because I really enjoy his leadership, infectious attitude and of course, his play on the field. I may be premature but I'm preparing myself for him to be gone by the end of 2017, if not after the All Star Break.

IF Dayton can trade him for some topline pitching that's controlled for years, I don't see how he could pass that up. We might be looking at another run that may last even longer than 2014-2015 due to the youth in currently on the 25 and in the system.

I may be in the minority but good grief, I'm dying for a real homegrown rotation that can lead this team for the better part of a decade.

I'd say 10-15 percent chance. If KC can make him a competitive offer, the opportunity to stay and have the prestige around town of being a career star here, it may be enough to sway him.

If some team comes in and offers $30 million/year, I think it's over. But if it's in the mid-twenties, KC may be able to make it work (especially if the primary competition includes paying LA taxes, which narrows the price tag gap a bit).

They are not going to trade him before all-star break 2017, at the earliest. And only then if they are far away from he playoff race.

One in hand is better than two in the bush, and they're not going to blow a huge hole in the talent level of the team and its emotional leadership for prospects. Same holds for Moustakas, too.

The odds of piecing together a decent rotation from Ventura/Duffy/Kennedy/Mill/Vargas/Young/Almonte/Zimmer/Minor/Strahm plus one mid-tier FA are probably better ones than trading Hosmer for pitching prospects and hoping for the best.


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Old 06-26-2016, 10:26 PM   #2384
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The inability to develop cheap SP is the killer. At some point it would be nice to hit on a 22-23 year old pitcher that is going to be a consistent middle to top of the rotation guy for a half a decade.

I think we were fortunate for awhile with guys like Santana, Volquez, and Young but it seems lately we arent as lucky with guys like Medlen and Minor. Also Volquez and Youngs bubble appears to have burst.

2014 Duffy and Ventura had it looking like it was pointed the right direction. Sure has changed since, eh?

I'm not giving up on Volquez. Looks mechanical, and that's fixable.

The calculated gambles on Medlen and Minor haven't worked out. I still think each was a good bet. That's just the way it goes sometimes.

We will see how Medlen is when he returns. If he's truly healthy, I think he can help. My holding my breath, though. His control issues earlier in the year were those of someone with something serious about to blow.




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Old 06-26-2016, 10:30 PM   #2385
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I'd say 10-15 percent chance. If KC can make him a competitive offer, the opportunity to stay and have the prestige around town of being a career star here, it may be enough to sway him.

If some team comes in and offers $30 million/year, I think it's over. But if it's in the mid-twenties, KC may be able to make it work (especially if the primary competition includes paying LA taxes, which narrows the price tag gap a bit).

They are not going to trade him before all-star break 2017, at the earliest. And only then if they are far away from he playoff race.

One in hand is better than two in the bush, and they're not going to blow a huge hole in the talent level of the team and its emotional leadership for prospects. Same holds for Moustakas, too.

The odds of piecing together a decent rotation from Ventura/Duffy/Kennedy/Mill/Vargas/Young/Almonte/Zimmer/Minor/Strahm plus one mid-tier FA are probably better ones than trading Hosmer for pitching prospects and hoping for the best.


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Cardinals have Wainwright at 19, Holliday at 17, Yadi at 14. That is a pretty good indicator what the Royals can go to. They also were in the hunt for Heyward and Price at higher numbers.
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Fort Worth Texas Process Servers
Covering Arlington, Fort Worth, Grand Prairie and surrounding communities.
Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Texas.
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