***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

What level of compliance would we need, and for how long, to beat this bitch?


In your estimation, of course.

90% for as long as it takes to get the R0 below 1. This was never about dates and times, even though that's what almost everyone yapped on about.

It's about numbers.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

I'm just talking wearing masks. That has 0 effect on the economy.

Gotta disagree, Bob. Restaurants and bars are a good deal of the economy and it's hard to eat and drink while wearing a mask.

Secondly masks are not the holy grail. Social distancing does more than any mask. If you aren't going to socially distance while wearing a mask then wtf? I mean they will help a bit but ....

[eDave]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Well I guess if you're rounding up and what not you get to 50...

He said 50.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

I'm starting to wonder if a nationwide lockdown all at the same time (roughly) wasn't a mistake.

Really?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...384v1.full.pdf

Here's the CDC seroprevalence.

MO was a state they checked. We were extremely higher than reported. Basically we caught 1 in 23 cases. THats not ideal

Saw that on Reddit earlier. Gotta think this thing is so widespread and has made its way through a lot more people than we can really fathom.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Donger

90% for as long as it takes to get the R0 below 1. This was never about dates and times, even though that's what almost everyone yapped on about.

It's about numbers.

Ugh...that's the conundrum. I feel like getting 90% of the population to wear them "indefinitely" is just not going to happen.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

Really?

Sure, why not. Everyone else can spew bullshit all day long why not join the party and really turn this party into a dumpster fire.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...384v1.full.pdf

Here's the CDC seroprevalence.

MO was a state they checked. We were extremely higher than reported. Basically we caught 1 in 23 cases. THats not ideal

Where are the serology studies, are we closer to herd immunity and how close?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

Saw that on Reddit earlier. Gotta think this thing is so widespread and has made its way through a lot more people than we can really fathom.

Eery time I see things like that it just makes me think just about everyone has it and is asymptomatic.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Gotta disagree, Bob. Restaurants and bars are a good deal of the economy and it's hard to eat and drink while wearing a mask.

Secondly masks are not the holy grail. Social distancing does more than any mask. If you aren't going to socially distance while wearing a mask then wtf? I mean they will help a bit but ....

True...bars and restaurants are a bugaboo. Restaurants can get by with take out, but bars have already taken a nasty hit. But they could end up getting shut back down anyway. I have to wonder how busy they are...I know I'm not in any hurry to go sit in a bar for hours.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Where are the serology studies, are we closer to herd immunity and how close?

It's not a set number. We wont' really know til we get there and we'll likely overshoot it.

Theres some stuff out there now thats showing Tcells do a good job so even these could be undercounting infections.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

Ugh...that's the conundrum. I feel like getting 90% of the population to wear them "indefinitely" is just not going to happen.

It's not indefinitely. Quite the opposite. It's defined. This won't beat this until the R0 is below 1. Either by mitigation, herd immunity or a vaccine.

We are nowhere near the latter, and we really don't want to have 70 to 80% of the country to get this.

So, that's what we are left with. Social distancing and masks.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

Saw that on Reddit earlier. Gotta think this thing is so widespread and has made its way through a lot more people than we can really fathom.

This was alos done the last week of march. WTF. We were already at that point then?

According to that, the last week of March, there were 161k positive infections in MO. Thats wild.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

Sure, why not. Everyone else can spew bullshit all day long why not join the party and really turn this party into a dumpster fire.

Okay. Well, I'm glad we mitigated.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's not a set number. We wont' really know til we get there and we'll likely overshoot it.

Theres some stuff out there now thats showing Tcells do a good job so even these could be undercounting infections.

So is that study suggesting MO really has 400,000+ cases? I mean MO has 19,374 cases. if 1 in 23 cases is caught are they suggesting 22 other cases are going unreported?