***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Two major stories came out last two days the CDC 6% everybody is focusing on and the NYT article discussing the major flaws in the PCR testing. Is it just me that thinks the NYT article about the PCR testing is the far more news worthy of the two?

Really interesting article, thanks for the heads up.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/h...s-testing.html

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Cave Johnson

Really interesting article, thanks for the heads up.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/h...s-testing.html

The PCR testing story was a bombshell. I knew months ago that this test wasn't measuring active infections of virus but when NY Times reported 37 to 40 cycles in the lab I was stunned.


I have a feeling that this is just the tip of the iceberg. This means that the media has been prattling on for months about "cases" without even knowing the basics of what a case was.

How many deaths "with Covid" disappear if we only count to 25, 30 cycles on the PCR test?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

The PCR testing story was a bombshell. I knew months ago that this test wasn't measuring active infections of virus but when NY Times reported 37 to 40 cycles in the lab I was stunned.


I have a feeling that this is just the tip of the iceberg. This means that the media has been prattling on for months about "cases" without even knowing the basics of what a case was.

How many deaths "with Covid" disappear if we only count to 25, 30 cycles on the PCR test?

And how do you define a case?

[O.city]

If showing any sign of viral sequence at that high of a specificity is a case, there are a huge abundance of walking cases of various other virus's out there at this point.

We need to know who's infectious. You could lower the number in the PCR cycles and only throw a positive when there's a certain amount of virus.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The mandates they are requesting are already in place. If individual bars aren't following them, that's not necessarily something that I can personally quantify.

Indoor bars need to be closed in any place having issues. There is no way to mitigate covid spread in a bar.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

The PCR testing story was a bombshell. I knew months ago that this test wasn't measuring active infections of virus but when NY Times reported 37 to 40 cycles in the lab I was stunned.


I have a feeling that this is just the tip of the iceberg. This means that the media has been prattling on for months about "cases" without even knowing the basics of what a case was.

How many deaths "with Covid" disappear if we only count to 25, 30 cycles on the PCR test?

Probably not that many. I know an ICU doc who says they pretty much know by now when it's covid and when it's not. There are tell-tale signs.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

And how do you define a case?

Cases are defined however the state wants them to be. Right now that is any positive result from 37 to 40 cycles of the PCR test. This means that 40 to 90% of the "cases" reported in the media are not actively infectious.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Indoor bars need to be closed in any place having issues. There is no way to mitigate covid spread in a bar.

I don't disagree. All I was saying is that they've already ordered bars closed in the 6 counties that have large college populations. It's up to local authorities to make sure those mandates are being followed. I don't live in one of those areas so I can't say for sure the mandates are being obeyed.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Cases are defined however the state wants them to be. Right now that is any positive result from 37 to 40 cycles of the PCR test. This means that 40 to 90% of the "cases" reported in the media are not actively infectious.

Then the media has been accurate in their reporting of new cases.

[O.city]

We need to differentiate between infection and illness. You can have infection without illness, but not vice versa.

If you can't or aren't "infectious and spreading" when you have certain levels of infection and we have to be that specific with a test, we need to not worry about those people in terms of quarantine.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

Then the media has been accurate in their reporting of new cases.

Sure..technically. They have also been incredibly misleading when they substitute cases and infections, which they do on TV and in writeups.

100 new cases at ____ school.

My first thought now is, "How many detected before 30 cycles?"


The idea that we should harm child education or our lives because people detected viral particles (maybe) needs to end now.


Saying the state defines cases reminds me of Divine Law Command Theory in college religion. God is Good..because he said so!

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Sure..technically. They have also been incredibly misleading when they substitute cases and infections, which they do on TV and in writeups.

100 new cases at ____ school.

My first thought now is, "How many detected before 30 cycles?"


The idea that we should harm child education or our lives because people detected viral particles (maybe) needs to end now.

A case is an infection, as you just acknowledged. So there's nothing misleading about that either.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I don't disagree. All I was saying is that they've already ordered bars closed in the 6 counties that have large college populations. It's up to local authorities to make sure those mandates are being followed. I don't live in one of those areas so I can't say for sure the mandates are being obeyed.

Yeah.

In LA lots of gym owners are defying the order. I haven't seen any bars defying and staying open.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

We need to differentiate between infection and illness. You can have infection without illness, but not vice versa.

If you can't or aren't "infectious and spreading" when you have certain levels of infection and we have to be that specific with a test, we need to not worry about those people in terms of quarantine.

I completely agree.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

The COVID Pandemic Could Lead to 75,000 Additional Deaths from Alcohol and Drug Misuse and Suicide

Alongside the thousands of deaths from COVID-19, the growing epidemic of “deaths of despair” is increasing due to the pandemic—as many as 75,000 more people will die from drug or alcohol misuse and suicide, according to new research released by Well Being Trust (WBT) and the Robert Graham Center for Policy Studies in Family Medicine and Primary Care.

The brief notes that if the country fails to invest in solutions that can help heal the nation’s isolation, pain, and suffering, the collective impact of COVID-19 will be even more devastating. Three factors, already at work, are exacerbating deaths of despair: unprecedented economic failure paired with massive unemployment, mandated social isolation for months
https://wellbeingtrust.org/areas-of-...ring-covid-19/

75,000 selfish people.