****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****

[BigRedChief]

Cardinals announce 25-man Opening Day roster for the 2019 season.

Spoiler!

The Cardinals today announced their 25-man Opening Day roster that includes four first-time Cardinals and 13 players that were developed within their organization.

PITCHERS (12): 60 – John Brebbia-RHP, 22 – Jack Flaherty-RHP, 53 – John Gant- RHP, 49 – Jordan Hicks-RHP, 43 – Dakota Hudson- RHP, 55 – Dominic Leone-RHP, 59 – Mike Mayers- RHP, 21 – Andrew Miller-LHP, 39 – Miles Mikolas-RHP, 29 – Alex Reyes, RHP, 52 – Michael Wacha-RHP, 50 – Adam Wainwright- RHP;

CATCHERS (2): 4 -Yadier Molina, 32 – Matt Wieters;

INFIELDERS (6): 13 - Matt Carpenter, 12 – Paul DeJong, 46 – Paul Goldschmidt, 34 – Yario Muñoz, 33 – Drew Robinson, 16 – Kolten Wong;

OUTFIELDERS (5): 46 – Harrison Bader, 25 - Dexter Fowler, 38 – José Martínez, 41 – Tyler O'Neill, 23 – Marcell Ozuna;

DISABLED LIST (5): 27 - Brett Cecil (10-day, left hand Carpal Tunnel syndrome), 44 – Luke Gregerson (10-day, right shoulder impingement), 18 – Carlos Martínez (right shoulder cuff strain), 3 - Jedd Gyorko (10-day, right calf strain), 67 - Justin Williams (10-day, right hand 2nd metacarpal fracture).

2019 Opening Day Line up

Spoiler!

Starting lineup
Matt Carpenter 3B
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Paul DeJong SS
Ozuna LF
Yadier Molina C
Dexter Fowler RF
Kolten Wong 2B
Harrison Bader CF

Won the Central Division. Won the NLDS.

NLDS Playoff roster

Spoiler!

Pitchers (12): Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, Genesis Cabrera, Tyler Webb, Andrew Miller, John Brebbia, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Carlos Martinez.

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters.

Infielders (6): Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman, Yairo Munoz.

Outfielders (5): Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena.

NLDS Playoff Game 1 starting lineup

Spoiler!

1. Dexter Fowler, CF

2. Tommy Edman, 3B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Marcell Ozuna, LF

5. Yadier Molina, C

6. Paul DeJong, SS

7. Kolten Wong, 2B

8. Harrison Bader, CF

9. Miles Mikolas, P

NLCS Game One Starting lineup

Spoiler!

1. Dexter Fowler, CF

2. Kolten Wong, 2B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Marcell Ozuna, LF

5. Yadier Molina, C

6. Matt Carpenter 3B

7.Tommy Edmond RF

8. Paul DeJong, SS

9. Miles Mikolas P

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by BDj23

Jesus Christ Ozuna.

That was beer league softball bad. He makes Lonnie Smith look like Ken Griffey Jr.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Additionally - Carlson took Kershaw deep tonight. Hes gonna be gooooooooood

Damn! Plus chalk up another Cardinal dagger to the heart for Kershaw.

[Marcellus]

pic.twitter.com/HWlr78kjRA

— T-Man (@troycupp) April 10, 2019

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by VAChief

That was beer league softball bad. He makes Lonnie Smith look like Ken Griffey Jr.

Gotta love a good Skates reference...

[BigRedChief]

Just from my eyes, that if O'Neill gets 2 AB's in a game, something positive happens or he lays off that slider out of the zone better.

Hamas/DJ or any other stat educated baseball geek know if this is true or not? Know where I should look to confirm or find out its a BS theory?

[Frazod]

They're finally above .500.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Just from my eyes, that if O'Neill gets 2 AB's in a game, something positive happens or he lays off that slider out of the zone better.

Hamas/DJ or any other stat educated baseball geek know if this is true or not? Know where I should look to confirm or find out its a BS theory?

I don't know of any public source for data like that, but you could probably research a month as a sample and just see what you find. What you are wondering about is why guys like Martinez are valuable on your bench. It is difficult to come off the bench for one at bat and build stats that look productive. You don't have the benefit of a second, third or fourth look that starters sometimes get.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Just from my eyes, that if O'Neill gets 2 AB's in a game, something positive happens or he lays off that slider out of the zone better.

Hamas/DJ or any other stat educated baseball geek know if this is true or not? Know where I should look to confirm or find out its a BS theory?

Hard to say for sure; I'd imagine Fangraphs custom reports or Baseball reference play index would do it for you but I don't have subscriptions to either.

But a quick and dirty breakdown that probably kinda submarines your thought here:

As a starter:

28 games, 116 PAs (suggesting he generally gets a full game's worth of PAs) and a triple slash of .239/.267/.440 -- OPS of .708 w/ 6 bombs and 15 RBI.

As a sub:

43 games, 43 PAs (so...y'know, generally only a single AB) and a triple slash of .289/.372/.605 w/ 3 bombs and 11 RBI.

At least to this point in his career and over admittedly small sample sizes, he's been MUCH better in short spurts than as a starter. He's actually been pretty lousy as a starter.

Now there's an interesting counterpoint here:

Vs SP 1st time through the order:
.182/.206/.364
Vs SP 2nd time through:
.318/.346/591
Vs SP 3rd time through:
.350/.381/.700

Vs. reliever:
.243/.303/.457

Again - we're working with prohibitively small sample sizes and the bottom line is that EVERY hitter does better the 2nd and 3rd times they see a SP, but there is some evidence that if he gets a look at a P a 2nd time, he's in pretty nice shape and it's really just a catastrophically lousy 1st time through the order that has kept his numbers as a starter down.

And when you look at his PAs vs. relievers and compare those to his numbers as a sub (78 PAs vs. relievers; only 43 total PAs as sub, some of which would've been vs. the starter so lots of PAs vs. relievers came as a starter) you can see that his relatively poor performance levels vs. relievers as a whole when contrasted against his really good numbers as a sub means that when he's starting, he's getting WRECKED by the first relief pitcher to come into the game.

So if you start him you get a shitty PA, 1-2 pretty good PAs and then 1-2 pretty lousy ones as the matchups start in the late innings (whether he gets 1 or 2 good PAs in a game depends on the opposing manager leaving the starter in to face him a 3rd time). If you bring him off the bench, you're probably getting one pretty decent PA.

So there's some merit to the idea, but there's also an acknowledgement that in the early and late innings you're probably giving a couple PAs away.

There is a school of thought that a hitter like O'Neill needs regular ABs to keep his swing sharp and perform. I'm philosophically opposed to that idea. The only guys that DON'T benefit from regular ABs are HoFers and complete scrubs. 80% of the guys on major league rosters could stand to benefit from getting 20+ PAs/week. But y'know what? That's not a reason to keep sending a guy out there that isn't performing. You earn your ABs in this league and if you can't earn them, I'm not gonna send you out there - full stop.

Now that's not to say that I don't think he deserves more time - he absolutely does. And maybe more exposure will help him get over the lousy ABs early in games when a guy like him could do so much to set a tone. Fowler damn sure isn't doing anything to keep the job.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Hard to say for sure; I'd imagine Fangraphs custom reports or Baseball reference play index would do it for you but I don't have subscriptions to either.

But a quick and dirty breakdown that probably kinda submarines your thought here:

As a starter:

28 games, 116 PAs (suggesting he generally gets a full game's worth of PAs) and a triple slash of .239/.267/.440 -- OPS of .708 w/ 6 bombs and 15 RBI.

As a sub:

43 games, 43 PAs (so...y'know, generally only a single AB) and a triple slash of .289/.372/.605 w/ 3 bombs and 11 RBI.

At least to this point in his career and over admittedly small sample sizes, he's been MUCH better in short spurts than as a starter. He's actually been pretty lousy as a starter.

Now there's an interesting counterpoint here:

Vs SP 1st time through the order:
.182/.206/.364
Vs SP 2nd time through:
.318/.346/591
Vs SP 3rd time through:
.350/.381/.700

Vs. reliever:
.243/.303/.457

Again - we're working with prohibitively small sample sizes and the bottom line is that EVERY hitter does better the 2nd and 3rd times they see a SP, but there is some evidence that if he gets a look at a P a 2nd time, he's in pretty nice shape and it's really just a catastrophically lousy 1st time through the order that has kept his numbers as a starter down.

And when you look at his PAs vs. relievers and compare those to his numbers as a sub (78 PAs vs. relievers; only 43 total PAs as sub, some of which would've been vs. the starter so lots of PAs vs. relievers came as a starter) you can see that his relatively poor performance levels vs. relievers as a whole when contrasted against his really good numbers as a sub means that when he's starting, he's getting WRECKED by the first relief pitcher to come into the game.

So if you start him you get a shitty PA, 1-2 pretty good PAs and then 1-2 pretty lousy ones as the matchups start in the late innings (whether he gets 1 or 2 good PAs in a game depends on the opposing manager leaving the starter in to face him a 3rd time). If you bring him off the bench, you're probably getting one pretty decent PA.

So there's some merit to the idea, but there's also an acknowledgement that in the early and late innings you're probably giving a couple PAs away.

There is a school of thought that a hitter like O'Neill needs regular ABs to keep his swing sharp and perform. I'm philosophically opposed to that idea. The only guys that DON'T benefit from regular ABs are HoFers and complete scrubs. 80% of the guys on major league rosters could stand to benefit from getting 20+ PAs/week. But y'know what? That's not a reason to keep sending a guy out there that isn't performing. You earn your ABs in this league and if you can't earn them, I'm not gonna send you out there - full stop.

Now that's not to say that I don't think he deserves more time - he absolutely does. And maybe more exposure will help him get over the lousy ABs early in games when a guy like him could do so much to set a tone. Fowler damn sure isn't doing anything to keep the job.

Thanks for the info. Much obliged.


Not enough evidence to back up my eyeball test theory. But, he's still a better option than Fowler and if he doesn't start, pull Ozuna late in the game for his defense.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Additionally - Carlson took Kershaw deep tonight. Hes gonna be gooooooooood

Gorman has 19 Homer’s as a pro before he turns 19 years old.

In his first five games in Peoria, he's 10-for-21 with as many extra-base hits (six) as strikeouts (six) and .542 on-base percentage. He's slugging 1.000.

In his first 68 games in the minors, Gorman has hit .306/.393/.605 with 52 RBIs. He has 82 strikeouts and 79 hits in 258 at-bats.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Thanks for the info. Much obliged.


Not enough evidence to back up my eyeball test theory. But, he's still a better option than Fowler and if he doesn't start, pull Ozuna late in the game for his defense.

The reliever information was fascinating to me.

Against relievers as a starter, he's garbage. Against relievers as a sub, he's outstanding.

That means situational deployment for him is MASSIVE. If he's a starter and the opposing manager gets to dictate the terms of engagement (i.e. he gets to put the reliever in to face O'Neill and gets to choose who that reliever is), then O'Neill can be picked apart. But when Shildt gets to dictate terms - keep him on the bench until the right matchup comes along - then he's really effective.

So it's an argument to keep him on the bench because he's a higher variance player. And your other chess move in that sequence then becomes putting Martinez in RF as the starter because Martinez really isn't high variance. At least not as much as O'Neill.

So you start Martinez and look for your spots with O'Neill.

And you DFA Dexter Fowler.

(pleasepleasepleaseplease let that be why you called a 3p press conference today, Cardinals. Pleeeeeeaaaaaaase.....)

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Gorman has 19 Homer’s as a pro before he turns 19 years old.

In his first five games in Peoria, he's 10-for-21 with as many extra-base hits (six) as strikeouts (six) and .542 on-base percentage. He's slugging 1.000.

In his first 68 games in the minors, Gorman has hit .306/.393/.605 with 52 RBIs. He has 82 strikeouts and 79 hits in 258 at-bats.

Yeah I saw somewhere that he's one of like 11 guys to have this many homers in his first 70 games as a pro. I don't even think it was limited to teenagers but it could've been.

And as a 19 yr old in full-season ball, no less. Man that's an impressive start. I could live without the 25% K rate but the 10% walk rate will play if the power holds. That gives you 150 Ks and 60 BBs over a season...eh, okay. If he's a 35 HR hitter with that kind of plate discipline, it's roughly what Eugenio Suarez did last season.

And Suarez is a credible defender on his good days; not a good one by any stretch.

If Gorman can continue on a similar arc and make the bigs by 22 as a player roughly on par with the 2018 version of Eugenio Suarez, you gotta consider that a W. Especially considering that he'd be doing it from the L side (where we badly need it) and in a park less favorable to hitters than GAB where Suarez hits.

If he's gonna step forward into real anchor tenant status he's gonna need one of 2 things; a reduction in K-BB rates (maybe something more akin to Rhys Hoskins?) or a HUGE step forward defensively. I mean that's essentially what Matt Champan was last season; elite defensive 3b with good power and some swing/miss in his game with tolerable BB rates.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

(pleasepleasepleaseplease let that be why you called a 3p press conference today, Cardinals. Pleeeeeeaaaaaaase.....)

Given their track record of importance of their announced press conferences....... probably to announce they have a new nacho cheese supplier at the stadium.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Given their track record of importance of their announced press conferences....... probably to announce they have a new nacho cheese supplier at the stadium.

Oh of course.

Blues are getting too much press so Dollar Bill needs to get their names back in the paper. "Guys, we're sorry about that Harper thing...no, stop, wait - PLEASE GET OFF BASEBALL REFERENCE WE KNOW ABOUT BRYCE HARPER AND DEXTER FOWLER!!!!.....okay, you're back - good. Now let me tell you about the new official shoelace sponsor of the St. Louis Cardinals..."

At best its an extension for Bader/Flaherty. More likely is that Reyes was picking up his bags when he got to Memphis and his arm physically detached from his body.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

At best its an extension for Bader/Flaherty. More likely is that Reyes was picking up his bags when he got to Memphis and his arm physically detached from his body.

Also hearing it’s not Michael Wacha or Harrison Bader. Sorry for the process of elimination, but it’s all I’ve got for now. https://t.co/MktZ9EH3od

— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) April 10, 2019