***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[FloridaMan88]

France is now banning “family gatherings”.

How exactly do they enforce that without going North Korea-style?

If a family is eating dinner in their home together isn’t that a “family gathering”?

The damage to western democracies from the hysteria over COVID-19 will be far worse than the impact of the actual virus.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

From the link:




Trajectory seems about right

Well, damn. There number of deaths were really low early on too.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by petegz28

San Francisco "orders" people to stay inside. Can they do that legally?

Better stock up on that them guns and ammo so they can't take ourfreedoms! I don't listen to no gubment unless my god talks to me. No sir.

[crayzkirk]

Yeah, I'm in the "cautious, yet not willing to believe the sky is falling" group.

I'm 61 (closer to 62) and have a paralyzed diaphragm from a car accident years ago. Makes it hard to breathe when exerting myself. Getting over a cold where I had a sore throat for a few days, then congestion and finally breaking up and on it's way out.

I was in Florida in late January and walked several miles to the Chiefs gathering in February.

I don't listen to much that the media has to say however when a real doctor talks about this, I listen.

After everything that the media has done, it's difficult for me to trust them on this one. I know this is the non-political thread however there is part of me that agrees with FAX... A bit like after 9/11 where our rights and liberties were affected. It might not be a setup for a power grab however it does seem like some of that is going on.

Just heard that I am going to be WFH for the next two weeks. Thankfully, my job allows that.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Shiver Me Timbers

Agree.
We could use more of you postin' these days

I'm giving myself the afternoon. Because there's no room for 'I told you so"s in an event like this (though I don't think I've really shit on anyone here) and worse, if it turns out that draconian measures WERE necessary and are on their way - well I'll be in the midst of watching a business I've spent a decade building up crater into insolvency while I'm left holding on the wrong end of a million dollar expansion debt and wondering if there's a place for a nearly 40 year old professional mouth in the 'new society' that emerges.

At that point I'm unlikely to give a **** about CP either way.

I had a few thoughts and I offered 'em. I'll spend a couple hours expounding on 'em. They could be completely meritless and have only served to further muddy the waters. Whatever they case may be, they're definitely finite and with them out in the wild, I'll see little need to continue to chirp from the sidelines...

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

democracies from the hysteria over COVID-19 will be far worse than the impact of the actual virus.

The Bill of Rights is effectively dead and nobody has realized it.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Donger

Not yet. I doubt it's going to change much from the global at this point, which is:

80+ years old
14.8%

70-79 years old
8.0%

60-69 years old
3.6%

50-59 years old
1.3%

40-49 years old
0.4%

30-39 years old
0.2%

20-29 years old
0.2%

10-19 years old
0.2%

0-9 years old
no fatalities

These are percentage chance of dying if infected, by the way.

What’s your guess on how many people are infected but we will never know because they won’t have a need to get tested or get treatment? If this thing is as contagious as suggested it could easily be over 100,00 right now in my opinion if not way more.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Better stock up on that them guns and ammo so they can't take ourfreedoms! I don't listen to no gubment unless my god talks to me. No sir.

They actually are. My friend in Redwood sent me a pick theres a line outside the door at a local gun shop. I'm not kidding.

[Titty Meat]

France just reported its biggest death toll in a day yesterday. Not a chance this thing doesnt clobber us in the coming week....

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Fish

Not exactly encouraging...

Surgeon general says U.S. cases are at the point where Italy was 2 weeks ago

Mar 16, 2020 10:55 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. surgeon general said Monday that the number of coronavirus cases in the United States has reached the level that Italy recorded two weeks ago, a sign that infections are expected to rise in America as the government steps up testing and financial markets continue to fall.

“We are at a critical inflection point in this country, people. We are where Italy was two weeks ago in terms of our numbers,” U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told Fox News. “When you look at the projections, there’s every chance that we could be Italy.”

[...]

Adams said there will be 30 to 40 new testing sites running in 19 states that could each perform 2,000 to 4,000 tests a week. However, Brett Giroir, a senior health administration official, said community testing sites manned by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and members of the U.S. public health service would be capable of testing 2,000 to 4,000 people each day, not every week. He said the federal government would begin deploying these sites on Monday.

[...]

Asked whether restaurants and bars around the nation should close for the time being, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said he wanted to wait for the guidance to come but allowed, “That could be.”

Fauci said he would like to see more aggressive measures, such as a 14-day national shutdown. Still, Fauci said travel restrictions within the United States, such as to and from hard-hit Washington state and California, probably would not be needed anytime soon.

“The worst is yet ahead for us,” Fauci said. “It is how we respond to that challenge that is going to determine what the ultimate endpoint is going to be.”

At any given point in time, we're going to be where Italy, or any other country for that matter, was at in some point in time.

[luv]

Boyfriend's restaurant went to take-out only. All servers and nearly all the kitchen staff cut.

School's are out here and in the surrounding area until April 3. Not online, just a 2-week extension of spring break.

[Donger]

Unless I'm wrong, no nation has seen exponential growth in either number of cases, and more importantly, deaths.

China's curve is looking good in regard to both, if their numbers can be trusted. From first real surge began around 1/22 to where they are now. So, about two months duration.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

France just reported its biggest death toll in a day yesterday. Not a chance this thing doesnt clobber us in the coming week....

But here's what's been interesting - at least to whatever extent you can trust these numbers.

It seems that critical case rates spiked significantly in Italy several days before the mortality rates did. Meanwhile the US critical case rates appears to have held pretty steady.

And man, it's possible I'm standing at a crossing watching down the traintracks as a bus is approaching from my left that I'll simply never see coming. But I've taken the 'overrun our health systems' calls at face value from the start because they're inherently sensible. And IF that's the case, if that's truly the key distinction between benign outcomes and mortality spikes, then that's the key metric to track. May turn out that there's a universal constant and infections will yield the same number of critical cases in all nations - in which case that bus will drill me. But for right now, that's the area I've focused my attention on.

And unfortunately I'm simply consuming too much of this shit to keep track of it at this point, but from what I have seen, our critical care rates have remained awfully reasonable and significantly better than others - at least to this point.

Because every day has been the longest week of my life over the last 8-10 days, everything could be different by Wednesday. But so far there are still some signs out there to be encouraged by.

Again - this will obviously get worse before it gets better. And yes, the numbers will go up (including, eventually, the daily death toll) - but so long as our medical system isn't overrun, we'll come out of this just fine. So in light of that its critical to watch the revs, not just the speedometer.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

Well, damn. There number of deaths were really low early on too.

Their growth on deaths has been far faster than the US. For example on February 27th they had 17 and on March 7th they had 233. It was significant increasing basically every day. When we had a similar starting number to compare was on March 6th when we had 15. Today, March 16th we have 78 or so.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

If we're being macabre here, then I'd be putting money on something not even directly related to the virus being the tipping point that turns everything into a shitshow.

As soon as people start to go hungry and looting starts....then we're gonna have a problem.