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Old 11-21-2021, 07:21 PM  
MMXcalibur MMXcalibur is offline
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How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

---

Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%
Last edited by MMXcalibur; 12-19-2021 at 03:13 PM..
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Old 01-03-2022, 09:14 AM   #901
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No point in worrying about potential opponents. Just gotta play whoever is in front of us.

No one to blame but the Chiefs. All those early turnovers in the season were killers. Can’t give away 2 games like that. Allowing a 3rd and 27 to be converted cleanly is inexcusable.

Made our bed, now we gotta sleep in it.

I’m confident we can beat anyone in the AFC though.
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Old 01-03-2022, 09:17 AM   #902
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We beat them in their own house without Chris Jones, Willie Gay or LJarius Sneed.

We'll be fine.
On a short week Thursday...
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Old 01-03-2022, 09:20 AM   #903
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No point in worrying about potential opponents. Just gotta play whoever is in front of us.

No one to blame but the Chiefs. All those early turnovers in the season were killers. Can’t give away 2 games like that. Allowing a 3rd and 27 to be converted cleanly is inexcusable.

Made our bed, now we gotta sleep in it.

I’m confident we can beat anyone in the AFC though.
Yeah, and it's one extra freakin' game... even saw someone say their path is "infinitely harder".

No, it's pretty damn finite. One extra game with no rest. If they can't get out of the WC round against some 9 win team (minus the 17th game) in this dumpsterfire of a conference, they probably weren't winning the SB anyway.

The potential for injuries sucks, but as you said, the certainly didn't earn the 1 seed this year... even if the Titans do lose, they will be "infinitely" lucky to end up the 1.
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Old 01-03-2022, 09:34 AM   #904
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Old 01-03-2022, 09:51 AM   #905
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Yeah, and it's one extra freakin' game... even saw someone say their path is "infinitely harder".

No, it's pretty damn finite. One extra game with no rest. If they can't get out of the WC round against some 9 win team (minus the 17th game) in this dumpsterfire of a conference, they probably weren't winning the SB anyway.

The potential for injuries sucks, but as you said, the certainly didn't earn the 1 seed this year... even if the Titans do lose, they will be "infinitely" lucky to end up the 1.
For perspective, if we had been the 3 seed instead of the 2 seed in 2019 our path to the Super Bowl most likely becomes TEN, @NE, @BAL instead of HOU, TEN. Humongous difference and it's a damn shame they bumble****ed their way out of the #1 seed yesterday.
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Old 01-03-2022, 09:57 AM   #906
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Old 01-03-2022, 10:00 AM   #907
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Wonder why Cinci would be predicted at the 4 seed - I doubt they lose @ CLE next week, and playing around with the playoff simulator, seems like that would lock them into the 3 seed. What am I missing?

The 4 seed would likely be a much easier route to the SB, which KC could get with a loss. I doubt we throw the game, but likely vs NE and @ TEN, which I would take over vs LAC and vs CIN.
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Old 01-03-2022, 10:07 AM   #908
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Wonder why Cinci would be predicted at the 4 seed - I doubt they lose @ CLE next week, and playing around with the playoff simulator, seems like that would lock them into the 3 seed. What am I missing?

The 4 seed would likely be a much easier route to the SB, which KC could get with a loss. I doubt we throw the game, but likely vs NE and @ TEN, which I would take over vs LAC and vs CIN.
It looks like Cincinnati would have the three seed with a victory at Cleveland next week as they would have the tie breaker over Buffalo.
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Old 01-03-2022, 10:21 AM   #909
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For perspective, if we had been the 3 seed instead of the 2 seed in 2019 our path to the Super Bowl most likely becomes TEN, @NE, @BAL instead of HOU, TEN. Humongous difference and it's a damn shame they bumble****ed their way out of the #1 seed yesterday.
Sure, will just have to see how it all plays out... there are so many times people freak out and then something unexpected happens (Fitzmagic).

Worst case is probably playing Herbert, Burrow, and Allen (if that's even possible), best case looks like Chargers/Bengals playing each other, then I definitely wouldn't say the Titans are a lock for the AFCCG.... so they could still have HFA throughout, much like 2019 when everyone assumed they would play in Baltimore.

They might have screwed themselves out of the easiest path (weirder things have happened than Houston beating Tenn next weekend), and in this ****ed up season, I don't know why people are focusing on only the worst case scenario (besides people who are always focusing on the worst case).
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Old 01-03-2022, 10:32 AM   #910
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When the Chiefs were 3-4 I didn't think there was any way they would make the playoffs but here we are. Good job. The thing I can't understand is why the Chiefs have so much trouble scoring in the 2nd half of games. This has been an issue all season long but AR doesn't have an answer for it. You can't win a Super Bowl with 30 minutes of play.
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Old 01-03-2022, 10:36 AM   #911
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When the Chiefs were 3-4 I didn't think there was any way they would make the playoffs but here we are. Good job. The thing I can't understand is why the Chiefs have so much trouble scoring in the 2nd half of games. This has been an issue all season long but AR doesn't have an answer for it. You can't win a Super Bowl with 30 minutes of play.
I get your point, but we won LIV with about 8:53 of play.
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Old 01-03-2022, 10:45 AM   #912
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Sure, will just have to see how it all plays out... there are so many times people freak out and then something unexpected happens (Fitzmagic).

Worst case is probably playing Herbert, Burrow, and Allen (if that's even possible), best case looks like Chargers/Bengals playing each other, then I definitely wouldn't say the Titans are a lock for the AFCCG.... so they could still have HFA throughout, much like 2019 when everyone assumed they would play in Baltimore.

They might have screwed themselves out of the easiest path (weirder things have happened than Houston beating Tenn next weekend), and in this ****ed up season, I don't know why people are focusing on only the worst case scenario (besides people who are always focusing on the worst case).
Your worst case is actually our best case, because it means we’d be playing all those games at home.
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Old 01-03-2022, 10:58 AM   #913
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If Henry is back, Tenn will be very tough to beat at home.
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Old 01-03-2022, 10:59 AM   #914
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Your worst case is actually our best case, because it means we’d be playing all those games at home.
Eh, despite losing in Tennessee a couple times, I'd still rather play Tannehill than the other quarterbacks.

My main point though is I'm simply too damn old to care much about the speculation and especially panic about one or two specific scenarios that may never even happen.... and yeah, we could face my worst case and in a few weeks be thinking, damn they were lucky!
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Old 01-03-2022, 11:04 AM   #915
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If Henry is back, Tenn will be very tough to beat at home.
His foot will break in the first quarter I bet.

That team is going out like the 95 Chiefs.
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