FO: Chiefs have 8th Worst Defense Ever Through 5 Games

[KC_Connection]

The flip side of the Buffalo defense is the Kansas City defense, which has been horrendous through the first five games. The Chiefs now are the eighth-worst defense ever tracked by DVOA through five games.

Worst Defensive DVOA
Through 5 Games, 1983-2021
Year Team W-L DVOA
2019 MIA 0-5 35.8%
1998 WAS 0-5 35.7%
2006 HOU 1-4 32.4%
1998 PHI 0-5 31.3%
1992 NE 0-5 31.2%
2001 ARI 2-3 30.1%
1985 BUF 0-5 29.5%
2021 KC 2-3 29.3%
2017 NE 3-2 28.2%
2010 BUF 0-5 27.8%
2012 BUF 2-3 27.8%
2018 TB 2-3 27.7%

And yet, I think the idea that the Chiefs are no longer a good team has been overstated. The Chiefs are still 14th in DVOA despite a losing record. Even after a poor game against the Bills, their offense still ranks No. 1 on the year, ahead of the Buccaneers and Rams. Some of the issue here is one of schedule strength early. Kansas City has played the hardest schedule so far according to average DVOA of opponent. It's also the No. 4 schedule of opposing defenses and the No. 2 schedule of opposing offenses. So both sides of the ball don't look as good as they really are because of the level of competition. The Chiefs, for example, rank only fifth in unadjusted offensive VOA -- it's when we add the adjustments for schedule and fumble recovery luck that they move into the top spot.

There's never been a team like the Chiefs that was so good on offense and so bad on defense this early in the season, but I did go looking for similar teams that were not as extreme. I started by looking for other teams that had offensive and defensive DVOA both over 25% after five games. There's one such team: the 2013 San Diego Chargers, who ranked third in offense and last in defense after five games. The Chargers started 2-3, like the Chiefs. They went on to finish 9-7 and made the playoffs, upsetting the Bengals in the wild-card round and then losing to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the divisional round. The Chargers finished that season second in offensive DVOA and last in defensive DVOA, although their defensive rating improved from 27.3% after Week 5 to 19.3% at the end of the year.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dv...cent-greatness

So the Chiefs unsurprisingly have one of the worst defenses ever tracked by DVOA, but there may be hope as the offense is still as elite as ever. Can they ever get a stop, though?