Home Discord Chat
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > Nzoner's Game Room

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $2591769
Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
Posts: 45,533
cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:51 PM   #196
O.city O.city is offline
In Search of a Life
 
O.city's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2009
Casino cash: $3014064
If the Browns kick our ass next week and Jacksonville wins, that would do wonders.
Posts: 81,091
O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:52 PM   #197
Rain Man Rain Man is offline
NFL's #1 Ermines Fan
 
Rain Man's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: My house
Casino cash: $3618491
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
We need McFadden to get healthy.


Richardson will run all over us next week. Could be without both starting ILB's, Flowers and Lewis on D.

It will get destroyed the next couple weeks.
Did something happen to DJ? He looked fine in the post-game press conference clip that I saw.
__________________
I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,021
Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:53 PM   #198
SAUTO SAUTO is offline
Shit
 

Join Date: Jun 2008
Casino cash: $10039067
Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Which of those teams are most likely to draft QB? I know if we don't have the pick and the #1 pick doesn't want Geno we'll probably be too gutless to trade up, but just out of curiosity, who among the five will pick Geno?
Jax, oak, Philly
Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 55,715
SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:54 PM   #199
O.city O.city is offline
In Search of a Life
 
O.city's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2009
Casino cash: $3014064
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
Did something happen to DJ? He looked fine in the post-game press conference clip that I saw.
He didn't play the last couple possessions.
Posts: 81,091
O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:54 PM   #200
ShowtimeSBMVP ShowtimeSBMVP is offline
Chiefs
 
ShowtimeSBMVP's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Casino cash: $3886009
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Now:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%
Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.
Posts: 23,744
ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:56 PM   #201
ShowtimeSBMVP ShowtimeSBMVP is offline
Chiefs
 
ShowtimeSBMVP's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Casino cash: $3886009
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
We need McFadden to get healthy.


Richardson will run all over us next week. Could be without both starting ILB's, Flowers and Lewis on D.

It will get destroyed the next couple weeks.
Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet

Good news for #Raiders... and @NFLNetwork. RT @CorkOnTheNFL: Coach Allen said he expects McFadden to play Thursday night.
Posts: 23,744
ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:57 PM   #202
The Bad Guy The Bad Guy is offline
Scott Pioli
 
The Bad Guy's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: The Copacobana
Casino cash: $9373645
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.
His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.
__________________
Posts: 23,212
The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:57 PM   #203
ShowtimeSBMVP ShowtimeSBMVP is offline
Chiefs
 
ShowtimeSBMVP's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Casino cash: $3886009
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.
Hope your right.
Posts: 23,744
ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.ShowtimeSBMVP has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:58 PM   #204
The Bad Guy The Bad Guy is offline
Scott Pioli
 
The Bad Guy's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: The Copacobana
Casino cash: $9373645
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
It's just so ****ing infuriating to be THIS CLOSE to a potential franchise QB.

And thinking about falling short.

Patriotards, just lose. For us.
To be honest, I think there's going to be conflicting opinions among teams who is the true #1 QB.

It's not like if we do win a game and miss out on it, there's Andrew Luck sitting there.
__________________
Posts: 23,212
The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.The Bad Guy has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:58 PM   #205
SAUTO SAUTO is offline
Shit
 

Join Date: Jun 2008
Casino cash: $10039067
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.
I knew that was how the asshole should come back. twitter says something, ceedy's system is flawed
Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 55,715
SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.SAUTO is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:58 PM   #206
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $2591769
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.
People were saying the Chiefs wouldn't win another game last week. Now you have them sweeping their remaining games. The inherent strength of this system is that it rationally calculates the odds of the outcome of each game without human biases.
Posts: 45,533
cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 06:59 PM   #207
Rain Man Rain Man is offline
NFL's #1 Ermines Fan
 
Rain Man's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: My house
Casino cash: $3618491
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
He didn't play the last couple possessions.
I saw him on the sidelines, but I think that was a formation package. We had eight defensive backs in, with Hali, Poe, and one other guy rushing. (Houston?) I remember being surprised that he was out, but he looked like he was just watching.

I'm not positive that I'd rather have our eighth defensive back in the game over DJ, regardless of the formation.
__________________
I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,021
Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rain Man is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 07:01 PM   #208
O.city O.city is offline
In Search of a Life
 
O.city's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2009
Casino cash: $3014064
He was taken out of the game, went to the locker room and came back out with ice on his hamstring.

He's the only Lb we actually leave in on sub stuff, why would we replace him with Greenwood if he wasn't hurt?
Posts: 81,091
O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.O.city is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 07:01 PM   #209
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $2591769
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
I saw him on the sidelines, but I think that was a formation package. We had eight defensive backs in, with Hali, Poe, and one other guy rushing. (Houston?) I remember being surprised that he was out, but he looked like he was just watching.

I'm not positive that I'd rather have our eighth defensive back in the game over DJ, regardless of the formation.
He tweaked his hammy chasing Cam Newton and didn't come back after that.
Posts: 45,533
cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 12-02-2012, 07:01 PM   #210
R8RFAN R8RFAN is offline
Molôn Labé
 
R8RFAN's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: North Carolina
Casino cash: $8566872
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
People were saying the Chiefs wouldn't win another game last week. Now you have them sweeping their remaining games. The inherent strength of this system is that it rationally calculates the odds of the outcome of each game without human biases.
I don't think the Raiders win another game this year....
Posts: 23,164
R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.R8RFAN is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:00 PM.


This is a test for a client's site.
Fort Worth Texas Process Servers
Covering Arlington, Fort Worth, Grand Prairie and surrounding communities.
Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Texas.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.