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Old 03-19-2022, 07:50 AM  
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***Official 2022 STL Cardinals Thread***

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For the new Cardinal fans that joined the Planet since last year, here are some of the historical threads going back to 2006.


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Old 07-19-2022, 09:32 AM   #421
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So is Wynn a legit SS prospect?
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Old 07-19-2022, 09:43 AM   #422
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So is Wynn a legit SS prospect?
Hell yes.

He's Furcal with smoother fielding mechanics. I LOVE the kid defensively. Offensively he takes good ABs though I'm not sure how his power will translate. But I see a kid who can give you the same energy on offense as Edman does but perhaps do so without the super high/low periods that Edman has.

Probably a little more steady but without those 2-3 week stretches that Edman sometimes has where he's just white-hot.

To my eyes, Winn is the leadoff hitter and GG shortstop we've been trying to find since Ozzie declined.

Absolute worst case scenario is that he's Jose Iglesias w/ more power and speed. An outstanding defensive player for a decade who has a decent BA and can steal 25+ bags.

I don't see any scenario at all where he's not the starting SS in St. Louis 2 years from now. There are just too many tools that will play at this level. He's gonna be a 3-4 WAR player who gets it in ways that don't stand out; very similar to Edman in that regard (again).

Walker is my #1 prospect without question but the gap between him and Winn is, to me, smaller than the gap between Winn and the #3 guy (I dunno - Herrera?).

EDIT: I'll just quote myself from a few weeks ago before folks finally noticed the guy at the Futures Game:

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Moreover, Masyn Winn is an ELECTRIC player. I mean just incredibly dynamic. Lightning fast (like, potential 99th percentile sprint speed), probably the strongest arm in the minors and very soft hands. He could be a GG caliber shortstop the first day he takes the field. And with his approach, a genuine leadoff hitter.
I do have to change that up a bit though - it's not probably the strongest arm in the minors (it IS the strongest), rather it's probably the strongest arm in all of organized baseball.

The kid has a cannon. And sometimes, like all kids that play with a little flash, he enjoys showing it off. He's just a damn fun player.
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Old 07-19-2022, 10:57 AM   #423
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Hell yes.

He's Furcal with smoother fielding mechanics. I LOVE the kid defensively. Offensively he takes good ABs though I'm not sure how his power will translate. But I see a kid who can give you the same energy on offense as Edman does but perhaps do so without the super high/low periods that Edman has.

Probably a little more steady but without those 2-3 week stretches that Edman sometimes has where he's just white-hot.

To my eyes, Winn is the leadoff hitter and GG shortstop we've been trying to find since Ozzie declined.

Absolute worst case scenario is that he's Jose Iglesias w/ more power and speed. An outstanding defensive player for a decade who has a decent BA and can steal 25+ bags.

I don't see any scenario at all where he's not the starting SS in St. Louis 2 years from now. There are just too many tools that will play at this level. He's gonna be a 3-4 WAR player who gets it in ways that don't stand out; very similar to Edman in that regard (again).

Walker is my #1 prospect without question but the gap between him and Winn is, to me, smaller than the gap between Winn and the #3 guy (I dunno - Herrera?).

EDIT: I'll just quote myself from a few weeks ago before folks finally noticed the guy at the Futures Game:



I do have to change that up a bit though - it's not probably the strongest arm in the minors (it IS the strongest), rather it's probably the strongest arm in all of organized baseball.

The kid has a cannon. And sometimes, like all kids that play with a little flash, he enjoys showing it off. He's just a damn fun player.
So would you move him for Soto?
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Old 07-19-2022, 10:58 AM   #424
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So would you move him for Soto?
You move anyone for Soto. You dont make a prospect unavailable for a 23 year old HoFer who is the closest thing to Barry Bonds at the plate.
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Old 07-19-2022, 11:00 AM   #425
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You move anyone for Soto. You dont make a prospect unavailable for a 23 year old HoFer who is the closest thing to Barry Bonds at the plate.
For sure.

But unless they know they can sign Soto and keep him in STL long term (they won't) I don't think you can.
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Old 07-19-2022, 11:04 AM   #426
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For sure.

But unless they know they can sign Soto and keep him in STL long term (they won't) I don't think you can.
Any team trading for him at this stage is going to do so contingent on having an extension ironed out with Soto and Boras. No team is going to trade what is needed to land 3 playoff runs worth of Soto without having an extension in place and the Nationals wont trade him for what would be equal in money based on the remaining 2.5 years. Without the extension in place, the gap between the offers and the asking price will be so vast that nothing will progress.
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Old 07-19-2022, 11:15 AM   #427
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So would you move him for Soto?
Like...straight up? Well, yeah.

As like the third piece in a deal where I don't think I can get him signed? No.

I mean if you're asking Walker, Gorman, Carlson, Winn for Soto without a contract - no, I'm not doing that.

But with a contract? I mean...I dunno. Maybe. He's sooooooo goooooood. And he's post-season tested. And his skills should all age exceptionally well.

I mean this is the Miguel Cabrera deal all over again. And the Tigers were said to have given up a ton in real time - turns out they didn't give up much at all. And that's USUALLY how these things work (unless you're the Cardinals and you trade the NL CY winner plus Zac Gallen for 1.5 years of Marcel Ozuna).

But honestly, I don't think anybody can touch that deal so I don't think the Cardinals would have to go that high. And if the Nats insist on including Corbin in there as well, that's a HUGE barrier to entry.

Everything is fluid but the short answer is that unless your answer is "I'd be willing to give up the biggest trade package in modern baseball history for that guy" then you're doing it wrong.

He's the most valuable trade asset to hit the block since Cabrera and I can't think of anybody who was this good, this young, to get dealt before that.
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Old 07-19-2022, 11:18 AM   #428
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Any team trading for him at this stage is going to do so contingent on having an extension ironed out with Soto and Boras. No team is going to trade what is needed to land 3 playoff runs worth of Soto without having an extension in place and the Nationals wont trade him for what would be equal in money based on the remaining 2.5 years. Without the extension in place, the gap between the offers and the asking price will be so vast that nothing will progress.
Very probably.

At least at the deadline. If he doesn't get traded until the off-season, I could see the Nats reducing their demands to more reasonable 'two year rental' prices.

But again, I wouldn't put it past the Mets to go ham here. If Boras doesn't want to get an extension worked out, I could STILL see the Mets looking at the 2+ years they have with Scherzer, Lindor in his prime, Marte still productive and say "**** it - Alvarez and Mauricio for Soto and Corbin and we'll worry about the rest later. It's time to win a ring..."

The Mets are just such a wild card in all this.
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Old 07-19-2022, 11:23 AM   #429
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I dont think there is any shot the Nationals would accept that offer.

The ZiPS projection on Soto's surplus value over the next 2 years is around $90M. That's worth more than Alvarez and Mauricio. Why would they reduce their return just to get rid of Corbin?
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Old 07-19-2022, 11:39 AM   #430
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I dont think there is any shot the Nationals would accept that offer.

The ZiPS projection on Soto's surplus value over the next 2 years is around $90M. That's worth more than Alvarez and Mauricio. Why would they reduce their return just to get rid of Corbin?
ZIPS uses an asinine $9 million/win projection that doesn't make any sense in relation to the actual market.

Again, Soto is going to have around $50 million in salaries over the next two years. I'm fine projecting him at about 15 WAR over those two seasons.

NOBODY is paying $10 million/WAR at the top of the scale. Not a single team for a single player. At that top end of the market they're looking at around $6 million/win. That's $90 million in market value vs. $50 million in salary.

He's $40 million in surplus value.

A top 10 prospect is projected to be around 18-20 wins. A top 5 guy is nearer 24 over the first 6 years of the deal and thus around 10 in the first 3 cheap years.

Alvarez alone carries a projected surplus value of somewhere in the $60 million range. If you consider him a 65 FV player, that checks out almost identically to my analysis above.

Or if you insist on sticking to your $9 million zips war and Soto's $90 million in surplus value, then again, Alvarez alone and his 10 pre-arb win are worth that same $90 in terms of pure projection.

On the flip side, Patrick Corbin is owed $60+ million over the next 2+ seasons. You want to talk about 'surplus value' and then hand-waive the fact that the Nationals are $60 million upside down in a depreciating asset? And act like unloading that contract has no value to them? From a strict asset analysis, it eats up all or most of the surplus value of Soto's deal arb years. Yeah, it's that damn bad.

If Soto doesn't get an extension in place, Alvarez, Mauricio and unloading the Corbin liability is absolutely as good as they'll do, IMO. Who's going to trump it?
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Old 07-19-2022, 12:04 PM   #431
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The money Soto is about to get sure makes that Harper deal look good, doesnít it?

If Iím the Cardinals front office, I add him. I strongly considering taking on two years of Patrick Corbin for $50 ($10M of his 2024 salary is deferred) to lessen my prospect pay out. And I just write the check. They could afford it, easily.
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Old 07-19-2022, 12:11 PM   #432
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ZIPS uses an asinine $9 million/win projection that doesn't make any sense in relation to the actual market.

Again, Soto is going to have around $50 million in salaries over the next two years. I'm fine projecting him at about 15 WAR over those two seasons.

NOBODY is paying $10 million/WAR at the top of the scale. Not a single team for a single player. At that top end of the market they're looking at around $6 million/win. That's $90 million in market value vs. $50 million in salary.

He's $40 million in surplus value.

A top 10 prospect is projected to be around 18-20 wins. A top 5 guy is nearer 24 over the first 6 years of the deal and thus around 10 in the first 3 cheap years.

Alvarez alone carries a projected surplus value of somewhere in the $60 million range. If you consider him a 65 FV player, that checks out almost identically to my analysis above.

Or if you insist on sticking to your $9 million zips war and Soto's $90 million in surplus value, then again, Alvarez alone and his 10 pre-arb win are worth that same $90 in terms of pure projection.

On the flip side, Patrick Corbin is owed $60+ million over the next 2+ seasons. You want to talk about 'surplus value' and then hand-waive the fact that the Nationals are $60 million upside down in a depreciating asset? And act like unloading that contract has no value to them? From a strict asset analysis, it eats up all or most of the surplus value of Soto's deal arb years. Yeah, it's that damn bad.

If Soto doesn't get an extension in place, Alvarez, Mauricio and unloading the Corbin liability is absolutely as good as they'll do, IMO. Who's going to trump it?
Top end of the scale is not $6M.

It's $8-8.5M.

Guys like Baez and Schwarber got $6M. Stroman got $7M. Bryant got $7.2M. Scherzer got $8M. Seager got $8.7M. Jansen got $8.8M.

You can best bet that teams will pay more for Soto than ****ing Baez and Schwarber.

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Old 07-19-2022, 12:21 PM   #433
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Bryant and Schwarber aren’t up of the scale guys. Betts, Trout; those guys are around 6.

Scherzer is a pitcher and a different market. Seager just got a stupid deal from a bad team that needed to overpay to get FA talent.

But hell make it 7. Still doesn’t move the needle much. Now he’s between $50-60 in surplus value which is again about where 10 wins of projected surplus from Alvarez alone lands you.
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Old 07-19-2022, 02:04 PM   #434
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If you want to get Soto even cheaper player wise, you take on Stephen Strasburg's contract. That's where the Dodgers could involved easier. They also have a shit ton of contracts coming off the books.
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Old 07-19-2022, 02:51 PM   #435
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If you want to get Soto even cheaper player wise, you take on Stephen Strasburg's contract. That's where the Dodgers could involved easier. They also have a shit ton of contracts coming off the books.
Strasburg has a full NTC.

And very probably the most toxic contract in league history.

He's owed about $150 million still over the next 4+ seasons and may simply not be physically sound enough to ever contribute at this point.

I'm not sure you could package Acuna w/ his insanely under market contract w/ Strasburg and get that deal made.

Strasburg is a horror show for any team on a budget. And hell, even the Dodgers do seem to have limits. They lost Scherzer and Seager last off-season and seem concerned they could lose Turner as well.

Very few teams (probably none) can just take on a $35 million/yr liability and shrug it off. Not in the luxury tax era when that $35 million could turn into $60+ million as quick as a hiccup.
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