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Old 02-26-2020, 10:28 PM  
JakeF JakeF is offline
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***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

A couple of reminders...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dartgod View Post
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Bearcat; 03-25-2020 at 08:56 AM.. Reason: adding spoiler tag
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Old 03-01-2020, 12:54 PM   #196
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Originally Posted by nychief View Post
2.3 in wuhan... under that elsewhere. Keep in mind, while 2 percent sounds small, it'd be 7 million americans.
2% would be a HUGE deal.

There's no way it's 2%.
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Old 03-01-2020, 12:54 PM   #197
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There's a 2% mortality rate?



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Old 03-01-2020, 12:56 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
I get that, but if we're to that point, 2 weeks isn't going to cut it.
Probably right. Better make it two years. And a concrete survival bunker just to be sure.
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Old 03-01-2020, 12:56 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by Mennonite View Post
I have no idea what this means.
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Old 03-01-2020, 12:58 PM   #200
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:02 PM   #201
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TLO View Post
2% would be a HUGE deal.

There's no way it's 2%.
It is likely lower. Many mild cases were probably missed or under reported. So the actual rate is lower.

But keeping the death rate down depends on giving the sickest individuals very intensive care.

If you don't like the idea of putting entire cities under house arrest like China did, the virus might spread quick enough to overwhelm hospitals and cause the deaths of individuals who otherwise could have been saved.
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:07 PM   #202
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If it appears everywhere in the USA. I'd bet money on its spread will be placed on those health care workers that processed the 34 Americans infected with the virus on the cruise ship without proper equipment. Yeah, they were asymptomatic when they got on those flights but, we knew at the time that they didn't have the right equipment and there was a 10 day incubation period.
How that was handled sounds pretty dumb. But I think we are past the point of their being a single entry point.

It is in Japan and South Korea. It is in Italy and the middle East. It will no doubt get into the USA from multiple sources.
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:10 PM   #203
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This is a good summary, for the pod listeners.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aH...EegQIBhAG&ep=6
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:15 PM   #204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nychief View Post
This is a good summary, for the pod listeners.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aH...EegQIBhAG&ep=6
Can you give us the cliff notes?
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:35 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by TLO View Post
Can you give us the cliff notes?
Pretty grim. Long time health reporter who covers pandemics is saying this looks similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918. Saying if that is accurate everybody will at least know somebody who dies from it. The virus seems to be about as "transmissable" as the flu.

He says for reasons unknown, children seem to be less likely to contract this disease. Most people who are hospitalized are 30+. The older you are, the more likely you are to die. Elderly chinese men make up majority of fatalities. In China a lot of men are smokers, and smokers over 50 pretty much have crappy lungs so very susceptible.

One possibility is disease will go away for the summer, but hit U.S. in a big wave this fall. (Which happened in 1918.) Also notes that all of the medical advances with tamiflu and ventilators and such have been used in China, but people still die even with modern medicine doing all it can.

Right now they are testing a bunch of anti-viral drugs, no effective treatment known yet. A vaccine will take a year to produce.
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:46 PM   #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wazu View Post
Pretty grim. Long time health reporter who covers pandemics is saying this looks similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918. Saying if that is accurate everybody will at least know somebody who dies from it. The virus seems to be about as "transmissable" as the flu.

He says for reasons unknown, children seem to be less likely to contract this disease. Most people who are hospitalized are 30+. The older you are, the more likely you are to die. Elderly chinese men make up majority of fatalities. In China a lot of men are smokers, and smokers over 50 pretty much have crappy lungs so very susceptible.

One possibility is disease will go away for the summer, but hit U.S. in a big wave this fall. (Which happened in 1918.) Also notes that all of the medical advances with tamiflu and ventilators and such have been used in China, but people still die even with modern medicine doing all it can.

Right now they are testing a bunch of anti-viral drugs, no effective treatment known yet. A vaccine will take a year to produce.
Yeah I just took the time to listen to it. The guy seems a bit doom and gloom on the whole thing. I'll be interested to see how effective the antiviral trials turn out.

I'm also trying to keep an eye on the vaccine being developed in Isreal. They believe they will have a vaccine ready to roll in less than 3 months now.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....s-vaccine/amp/

I'm assuming that means it goes through all the trials and everything else and is ready to start being produced in 90 days.

I hope everything goes well for them in development and testing.
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:49 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by TLO View Post
Yeah I just took the time to listen to it. The guy seems a bit doom and gloom on the whole thing. I'll be interested to see how effective the antiviral trials turn out.

I'm also trying to keep an eye on the vaccine being developed in Isreal. They believe they will have a vaccine ready to roll in less than 3 months now.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....s-vaccine/amp/

I'm assuming that means it goes through all the trials and everything else and is ready to start being produced in 90 days.

I hope everything goes well for them in development and testing.
His comments about rushing a vaccine gave me pause. The only year I have ever gotten the flu was the only year I ever got a flu shot. Small sample size, but the coincidence was bizarre enough that I never got a flu shot again. Guess that makes me a crazed anti-vaxxer in today's terms.
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:50 PM   #208
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I’ve heard experts comparing it to the Swine Flu from about 10 years ago.
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:52 PM   #209
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I’ve heard experts comparing it to the Swine Flu from about 10 years ago.
Which was actually the same virus as the Spanish Flu of 1918.
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:59 PM   #210
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Originally Posted by KChiefs1 View Post
I’ve heard experts comparing it to the Swine Flu from about 10 years ago.
Do you have a link by chance?
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