***Official 2022 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

2022 Opening Day Lineup

Spoiler!

#stlcards on opening day:

Carlson 9
Goldschmidt 3
O’Neill 7
Arenado 5
Pujols DH
DeJong 6
Molina 2
Bader 8
Edman 4

Wainwright 1

— Jeff Jones (@jmjones) April 7, 2022

2022 Opening Day roster

Spoiler!

Pitchers: Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Dakota Hudson.

Relievers: Jordan Hicks, Drew VerHagen, Jake Woodford, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsey, A. Pallante, Genesis Cabrera, TJ McFarland, Nick Wittgren, Kodi Whitley, Aaron Brooks.

Catchers: Yadier Molina, Andrew Knizner.

Infielders: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Paul DeJong, Albert Pujols, Edmundo Sosa

Outfielders: Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson, Corey Dickerson, Lars Nootbaar.

On the injured list are Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes

For the new Cardinal fans that joined the Planet since last year, here are some of the historical threads going back to 2006.

Spoiler!

2021 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=337124
2020 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=329273
2019 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320239
2018 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812
2012 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=254619
etc.
All the way back to 2006 WS
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Walker is certainly ranked higher on every board I've seen, but I also wonder when his 80 grade game and raw power is going to start showing up.

every respected baseball man in America says Walker is one of the best prospects. The only reason we are mentioned in Soto trades is Walker. Walker is how they sell trading Soto to their fans. Yet, you know better than all the rest?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

every respected baseball man in America says Walker is one of the best prospects. The only reason we are mentioned in Soto trades is Walker. Walker is how they sell trading Soto to their fans. Yet, you know better than all the rest?

What are you even talking about?

I never argued that Walker isn't a top prospect. He's got 80 grade power but he's not showing it yet. He's still young at 20 and it could come, it could also not come and his projected power is one of the big reasons he's ranked so high. That's why he is a prospect.

Do you think Walker is some god among prospects here? There are multiple teams out there with a Walker level prospect at the top of their lists. We aren't talking about Guererro Jr. level guys here.

Walker has questions just like all of the questions DJ just brought up about other teams top guys. Again... prospects. And there is a very valid argument to be made that a combo of Kirby + Marte is a better conversation starter than Carlson + Walker. The Mariners also have a bunch of very interesting guys that can be thrown into a deal with those 2. They could throw in another former top prospect, though struggling, in Kelenic and a guy that I would really like to see the Cubs target in a Contreras deal in Ford. With Dipoto calling the shots over there, I think the Mariners are a pretty solid contender to land Soto, if they wanted to seriously go after him.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by jd1020

What are you even talking about?

I never argued that Walker isn't a top prospect. He's got 80 grade power but he's not showing it yet. He's still young at 20 and it could come, it could also not come and his projected power is one of the big reasons he's ranked so high. That's why he is a prospect.

Do you think Walker is some god among prospects here? There are multiple teams out there with a Walker level prospect at the top of their lists. We aren't talking about Guererro Jr. level guys here.

Walker has questions just like all of the questions DJ just brought up about other teams top guys. Again... prospects. And there is a very valid argument to be made that a combo of Kirby + Marte is a better conversation starter than Carlson + Walker. The Mariners also have a bunch of very interesting guys that can be thrown into a deal with those 2. They could throw in another former top prospect, though struggling, in Kelenic and a guy that I would really like to see the Cubs target in a Contreras deal in Ford. With Dipoto calling the shots over there, I think the Mariners are a pretty solid contender to land Soto, if they wanted to seriously go after him.

Marte and Kirby might top Walker and Carlson (might, depending on how you view Kirby vs. Carlson), but Walker would top Marte on his own.

There are maybe 8-10 prospects on the same level as Walker right now. He’s showing up in the top 10 consistently on midseason lists and ranks in the top 5 on some of those.

1/3 or less teams can start with player 1 and match the Cardinal top/first chip.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Marte and Kirby might top Walker and Carlson (might, depending on how you view Kirby vs. Carlson), but Walker would top Marte on his own.

Well ya thats the argument. 6 years of Kirby vs 4 years of Carlson. I would say Kirby > Carlson with Walker > Marte. I dont think the gap between Walker and Marte is bigger than the 2 extra years of Kirby over Carlson. You would have to really be sold on being able to get Carlson to start making better contact in the majors because he is trending down. Kirby is really good and has crazy command over his fastball and slider, but he just pounds the zone too damn much and like DJ said needs to expand it and be willing to make guys chase those pitches instead of putting it in the strikezone. Hes giving up a lot of homers right now because he puts damn near everything in the zone. He could also stand to lower his curveball usage and up the changeup usage. His curveball is his weakest pitch and its the one he has least control over but he uses it 5% more than his changeup that gets more whiffs and isnt as scattered all over the grid.

There are 15 60FV prospects on FG's board with Walker (8) and Marte (13) in that group.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Well ya thats the argument. 6 years of Kirby vs 4 years of Carlson. I would say Kirby > Carlson with Walker > Marte. I dont think the gap between Walker and Marte is bigger than the 2 extra years of Kirby over Carlson. You would have to really be sold on being able to get Carlson to start making better contact in the majors because he is trending down. Kirby is really good and has crazy command over his fastball and slider, but he just pounds the zone too damn much and like DJ said needs to expand it and be willing to make guys chase those pitches instead of putting it in the strikezone. Hes giving up a lot of homers right now because he puts damn near everything in the zone. He could also stand to lower his curveball usage and up the changeup usage. His curveball is his weakest pitch and its the one he has least control over but he uses it 5% more than his changeup that gets more whiffs and isnt as scattered all over the grid.

There are 15 60FV prospects on FG's board with Walker (8) and Marte (13) in that group.

I’d value Walker a bit higher than Marte, primarily because he’s closer to the bigs and his offensive profile is more likely to succeed, IMO.

He makes more contact and controls the strike zone better from what I’ve seen and from what scouts say.

Marte also plays SS which adds some defensive value for him.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I’d value Walker a bit higher than Marte, primarily because he’s closer to the bigs and his offensive profile is more likely to succeed, IMO.

He makes more contact and controls the strike zone better from what I’ve seen and from what scouts say.

Marte also plays SS which adds some defensive value for him.

We'll probably find out soon what Marte does in AA. He's been on fire here recently. Walker hasn't really progressed much as the season has gone on so they'll probably both be in AA next year.

But you are saying nothing that hasn't already been said. The argument isnt Walker vs Marte. It's Carlson + Walker vs Kirby + Marte.

Those 2 players from each team represent what I believe to be the 2 best "prospects" to start a conversation for Soto from their respective teams. I dont see how either team gets Soto without those guys leading the return. If they did get Soto without both of those players in the return then the first order of business for the new Nationals owner is to fire Rizzo.

I found a list of BA's top 100 from 2007 to see what it took to get Cabrera and Maybin was ranked 6 and Miller was 10 and De La Cruz was throwing 100 mph but wasn't in the top 100. No team can match the rankings of Maybin and Miller, Arizona and Baltimore come the closest if they could trade their 2022 first round picks but they wouldn't do it in the first place, so insert Kirby and Carlson as the best controlled "prospects" on the major league team and probably another back end of the top 100/just missed guy with a couple 40-45FV fillers lower in the system.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Is Marte struggling though? He's 20 in high-A with a 130 wRC+. His average is somewhat low, but hes only striking out at 21% and walking at 11%. Given hes only 20 I don't really see that as struggling.

Walker is certainly ranked higher on every board I've seen, but I also wonder when his 80 grade game and raw power is going to start showing up.

The raw power absolutely shows up.

He hit a line drive double at 118 mph some weeks back. He mashed a ball out of the stadium into LF shortly thereafter. The raw power is absolutely 80 grade.

Game power - yeah, it's absolutely a question. But everything on his dash board looks really good. 20 years on in AA (as opposed to Marte in A+) and in his first lap of the league he has almost identical approach stats while further demonstrating his athleticism and showing that perhaps he's capable of staying at 3b longer than anyone expected.

And in a vacuum I wouldn't say that Marte is 'struggling' but he got a cup of coffee at A+ last year and is sitting at largely the same sort productivity and performance he demonstrated at A ball last year. I worry when I see a guy appear to plateau a bit. It doesn't mean his timeline and development will stall - it means the learning curve (and thus the long-term ceiling and/or aging curve) will be a little bit different.

Guys who make the majors at 21 simply have different careers/curves (over large numbers) than those that do it at 23, who are different than 25, etc...

If I have two similarly situated players, both are 20 years old and one is showing development in AA during his first turn there, the other is looking largely stable in A+, the former is going to turn my head more. It just means different curves over the course of his career.

[jd1020]

As I said on @FS1, multiple clubs saying Nats’ ask for Soto is 4 to 5 top youngsters, combo of prospects and major leaguers with low service time. Ten days from deadline, Nats aren’t negotiating, one exec says. A team either shows willingness to meet price, or Nats move on.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 23, 2022

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

As I said on @FS1, multiple clubs saying Nats’ ask for Soto is 4 to 5 top youngsters, combo of prospects and major leaguers with low service time. Ten days from deadline, Nats aren’t negotiating, one exec says. A team either shows willingness to meet price, or Nats move on.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 23, 2022

As well they should be.

When you have a generational talent, you set your terms and wait for someone to meet them. Or you hold the guy and maybe it improves the sale price for the Lerners and the new owner pays up to keep him.

There's no upshot to the Nationals negotiating here.

Walker, Gorman, Carlson, McGreevy, Liberatore is a massive price to pay, but it's 5 young players with lots of control. You have 3 guys with big league experience, 2 of whom would still be considered 'prospects' based on how you set your sliders. And 2 'pure' prospects, one of whom is a top shelf talent and the other a high pedigreed guy and a top 100 prospect in his own right.

If that's the price they name, I pay it. Donovan plays 2b, Soto plays RF. I guess O'Neill plays CF w/ Yepez (blech) in LF unless/until Burleson takes the job from him.

Hell, call up DeJong to see if the hot hitting in Memphis is real and put Edman back at 2b w/ Donovan in LF if need be.

The pieces exist to pay a heavy price and still be better for it.

Stop jerking off and get it done.

[jd1020]

Could also see the Padres meeting that demand.

CJ Abrams is sitting behind Tatis. They seem uninterested in giving Campusano a legitimate look in the majors and he crushing AAA right now. Add in Hassell and Wood. They are just missing the pitching prospects, but they have a log jam of guys in the majors so would they give up Gore?

That's 2 MLB youngsters, 1 prospect that's seen a little action in the majors, and 2 true prospects. And like Dipoto, Preller aint afraid to start slinging names around.

[DJ's left nut]

Abrams and Gore are why you sometimes trade guys when they're killing it at AAA.

Abrams just hasn't found traction at the big league level. And Gore seems to have come backwards quite a bit.

I really do like Hassell, though. Good pure hitter (someone I was saying we should trade Flaherty for 2 years ago, when Flaherty had value and nobody knew who Hassell was yet). Campusano is a nice prospect - I have no real knowledge of Wood.

2 years ago I think that's a damn strong package. I wonder now if the shine has come off Abrams and perhaps Gore, though.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Abrams and Gore are why you sometimes trade guys when they're killing it at AAA.

Abrams just hasn't found traction at the big league level. And Gore seems to have come backwards quite a bit.

I really do like Hassell, though. Good pure hitter (someone I was saying we should trade Flaherty for 2 years ago, when Flaherty had value and nobody knew who Hassell was yet). Campusano is a nice prospect - I have no real knowledge of Wood.

2 years ago I think that's a damn strong package. I wonder now if the shine has come off Abrams and perhaps Gore, though.

I dont think either Abrams or Gore has seen enough time in the majors to truly dim their lights.

The biggest problem I see for them is the money. They've been trying like hell to dump Hosmer and it was actually pretty close to happening with the Cubs last trade deadline and if they did give up that package they have no one left to sell with Hosmer.

Then again, money is the same problem I see with the Cardinals. Not because the Cardinals cant afford it, but because they have seemed unwilling to spend it for decades, unless you are talking about overpaying for the twilight years of career Cardinals.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I dont think either Abrams or Gore has seen enough time in the majors to truly dim their lights.

The biggest problem I see for them is the money. They've been trying like hell to dump Hosmer and it was actually pretty close to happening with the Cubs last trade deadline and if they did give up that package they have no one left to sell with Hosmer.

The problem with both guys has been how they've looked more than anything.

Gore's stuff just doesn't look like it did when he was a hot shit prospect. And Abrams just doesn't have the build for the sort of game power he was demonstrating in AAA (where numbers have been sketchy the last few years). Especially when you consider the sample sizes - he just flat hasn't played much.

That said, I still like Abrams, just not as the kind of player the prospect hounds are suggesting. I think he should be a leadoff hitting CFer. A year or two ago he was a 5-tool prospect and future superstar 3 hitter w/ 25/25 skills in the making. I didn't see it then - I definitely don't see it now.

[BigRedChief]

Yankees out?

The Yankees have emerged as “serious contenders” for Royals LF Andrew Benintendi, per source.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Yankees out?

The Yankees have emerged as “serious contenders” for Royals LF Andrew Benintendi, per source.

Nah.

They understand that Carpenter isn’t gonna stay this hot, the same as all of us.

Benintendi would essentially replace Gallo unless a Soto trade followed, then he’d replace Hicks.

Stanton can be a full-time DH as well if necessary. They have a LOT of old dudes who need time off. They can make both deals work.