Mock 12/12/19

[kccrow]

Chiefs trade Sammy Watkins for 4th round pick.

Chiefs cuts:
SS D. Sorensen, OL C. Erving, RB D. Williams, P D. Colquitt, June-1 Designate LB A. Hitchens

Cap Space Pre-June-1 with Rollover approx $45.6 m. Post June-1 +$8.5 m

Chiefs FA signings:
OC/G Graham Glasgow (DET) to a 4-year, $28.0 million deal (sim to B. Turner, Z. Fulton) with $9.0 million signing bonus - approx 6.0 m yr 1
- Glasgow isn't an All-Pro caliber player but he's rock-solid everywhere he lines up (all 3 interior spots).
QB B. Gabbert (TB) 2 yrs 4.0 m w/ 1.0 signing bonus (sim to R. Griffin, M. Barkley) - approx 1.7 m yr 1
- Reid brings in the former Missouri product in Gabbert to resurrect his confidence in college and turn him into a capable backup.
RB J. Howard (PHI) 2 yrs 5.5 m w/ 1.75 signing bonus (sim to D. Williams) - approx 2.4 m yr 1
- With the underperformance of Damien Williams, I think the Chiefs make a move. Howard knows a version of the offense and has been productive. At least his YPC is closer to 4.5 then 3.5, unlike Williams.
LB N. Kwiatkoski (CHI) 3 yrs 8.7 m w/ 2.6 signing bonus (sim to D. Wilson, C. Jones) - approx 2.1 m yr 1
- Every time Kwiatkoski steps on the field, he produces. Chiefs should give him a shot to be a starter, ala Damien Wilson.
CB J. Mills (PHI) 3 yrs 16.0 m w/ 1.5 signing bonus (sim to N. Robey-Coleman) - approx 4.0 m yr 1
- Off and on injured but productive when on the field. He's not a track star, but he plays his man well and tackles really well. I think he's a guy you can get on a relatively friendly, short-term deal.
LB E. Roberts (NE) 2 yr 3.7 m w/ 1.0 m signing bonus (sim to J. Thomas) - approx 1.5 m yr 1
- Roberts has been an especially good run defender in spot duties for the Pats and has outstanding long speed for special teams. Could be a sleeper in a new environment.
SS D. Thompson (DAL) 2 yr 4.0 m w/ 1.0 signing bonus (sim to M. Thomas) - approx 1.5 m yr 1
- Assignment sound when he gets his shots on the field. Comes up to support the run especially well.

Chiefs FA re-signings:
DT C. Jones 4 yrs 70.0 m w/ 22.0 m signing bonus (sim to G. Jarrett) - approx 13.0 m yr 1
- Chiefs go all-in here in the offseason, retaining one of the league's better interior pass rushers and he flexes well as a big end.
DE Emmanuel Ogbah - Re-sign to a 3-year $18.0 million deal (mirrors Alex Okafor's deal) with a $6.0 million bonus. - approx 3.0 m yr 1
- Ogbah was really coming on prior to his injury and looked like KC's best edge defender. He should be retained.
WR D. Robinson 2 yrs 7.0 m w/ 1.5 m signing bonus (sim to A. Hurns) - approx 3.1 m yr 1
- Robinson is effective here but probably shouldn't get a long-term deal. That said he'd ease the transition from Watkins' departure.
DT M. Pennel 1 yr 1.13 m, which includes a 90k signing bonus - count as 750k as vet cap benefit
- Pennel has been a significant benefit in run defense so keeping him around another year may be the right choice.
TE B. Bell 1 yr 910k, which includes a 90k signing bonus - count as 750k as vet cap benefit
- The Chiefs will scrub the shit out of the TE pool but I don't see them making any significant signings. If it isn't Bell, it'll be some scrub.
WR M. Kemp 1 yr ERFA tender 660k
- Probably camp fodder when all is said and done but cheap re-sign.
LG A. Wylie 1 yr ERFA tender 660k
- Worth keeping around as a reserve G/T.
TE D. Yelder 1 yr ERFA tender 660k
- Hasn't shown much but he's cheap and he's young.
QB P. Mahomes exercise 5th year option at league year then 4 yr $152 m extension (post June 1) w/ $67 m guaranteed
- Chiefs take care of Mahomes in the offseason and reach an agreement to re-sign him long-term after June 1 with the savings from letting Hitchens go.

Chiefs will likely make plenty of other transactions that have no real top-51 cap effect to sign guys to 1 year, vet minimum deals with less than 3 accrued seasons.

Cap pre-June 1 approx 3.8 m less draft class (approx 3.2 m) is 0.6 m... might be cutting it a bit close to the edge on this projection
Post June-1 approx 9.1 less Mahomes extension effect (approx 3.5 m) is 5.6 m

Draft:
1. LG Shane Lemieux, Oregon (6'4" 315)
- Lemieux isn't a mauler but he may be the best fit for Andy Reid in that he has outstanding movement and lateral agility on zone and stretch runs, getting to the second level, and in the screen game. He really ramped up his pass protection as a senior and has always shown he's looking to hit someone. Technically sound.
2. RB Cam Akers, Florida State (5'11" 210)
- Akers is an extremely underrated back that played behind a hodgepodge offensive line where he seldom had the chance to break into the open field. Akers shows good balance, burst and vision and is a very good receiver.
3. LB Jordan Mack, Virginia (6'3" 235)
- Mack is a bit light in the pants but has the frame to get larger and he's the downhill, gap attacking linebacker I strongly prefer over guys like Murray who remind me of Anthony Hitchens with a wait and react late style that gets them engulfed. Mack is adept at scraping off blocks and has the speed to get out to perimeter runs.
4. CB A.J. Green, Oklahoma State (6'1" 190)
- Underrated corner with excellent footwork, which is 90% of the battle in the NFL. Has solid ball and field awareness. Isn't the world's most physical tackler, but he sticks his nose in.
4. CB Levonta Taylor, Florida State (5'9" 181)
- Former 5-star recruit that has had excellent production in terms of yards allowed per game and completion percentage, but doesn't have great size or a great resume in terms of interceptions. That said, Taylor could end up being a top-flight NFL corner due to outstanding feet and quickness, but looks to be a good slot at worst.
5.WR Van Jefferson, Florida (6'2" 192)
- Solid receiver with good hands and good speed and quickness. Didn't get a ton of opportunities. Great special teams player. Could make some hay in the NFL if he realizes his skill set.

My Synopsis:
Overall revamp of the offensive line, which must be better, with Lemieux and Glasgow. Significant improvement at RB with additions of a more physical Howard and a good all-around back in Akers. Overhaul of the linebacking corps that is largely too tentative and must get better at attacking downhill, adding three guys in Kwiatkoski, Mack, and Roberts that aren't afraid to be physical. Injection of youth at defensive back with so many losses happening there, including sound veterans in Mills and Thompson as well as a couple of rookies that can contribute in dime sets and on special teams right away. The rest is largely keeping holes filled, but WR depth could be an issue.


Roster:
QB: Mahomes, Gabbert, Shurmur
RB: Howard, Akers, Williams, Thompson
FB: Lovett
WR: Hill, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle, Jefferson, Kemp
TE: Kelce, Bell, Yelder
OL: Fisher, Lemieux, Glasgow, Duvernay-Tardif, Schwartz, Rankin, Reiter, Wylie, Allegretti, Barton
DE: Clark, Ogbah, Okafor, Kpassagnon, Harris
DT: Jones, Nnadi, Saunders, Pennel, Speaks
LB: Wilson, Kwiatkoski, Mack, Roberts, Niemann, O'Daniel
CB: Mills, Ward, Fenton, Green, Taylor
S: Mathieu, Thornhill, Thompson, Watts
ST: Butker, Some UDFA Punter, Winchester.

[Buehler445]

Sorensen is making 4.75M in 2020. Is that really worth cutting? I think he's playing reasonably well. I don't know anything about Thompson and I'd love to save the money, but the whole bird in the hand thing.

[Buehler445]

Oof. I forgot he was a mormon and is 29. If he was 27 I'd say see if he'll extend for not a lot of money. But I don't think we want post-30 Sorensen here.

[Hoover]

I really like the Glasgow signing, I think that it the exact type of move we need to make. I also like it paired with keeping LDT, because when the center next to you gets destroyed you look like shit too.

A little worried about not addressing CB higher in the draft, but I get it.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Oof. I forgot he was a mormon and is 29. If he was 27 I'd say see if he'll extend for not a lot of money. But I don't think we want post-30 Sorensen here.

For 4.75 m, I'd want a guy that's got a bit more than Sorensen brings to the table. I look at that as starter money and he's a barely passable reserve box safety/hybrid LB and little else.

Originally Posted by Hoover

I really like the Glasgow signing, I think that it the exact type of move we need to make. I also like it paired with keeping LDT, because when the center next to you gets destroyed you look like shit too.

A little worried about not addressing CB higher in the draft, but I get it.

Glasgow and Kwiatkoski would be my top targets in FA at this point. I really like both of those guys and they shouldn't plow through cap funds. I'd love to make a splash signing at LB or CB but this team has a lot of open holes to fill.

$45 million seems like a lot of space until you look at the guys I re-signed that a lot of people want back and the other internal things like extending Mahomes and the draft class. At that point you have about $15 million. That's not a lot of space to make big signings.

Glasgow won't be free, he's one of the better interior offensive lineman in the league right now and I might have him a bit low, but I prioritized protecting Pat over big defensive splashes.

[O.city]

I like it

The g from Oregon caught my eye on some twitter page the other day. He’s a perfect andy guard.

And I’d keep sorenson if you could

[O.city]

I’d cut LDT instead

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by kccrow

For 4.75 m, I'd want a guy that's got a bit more than Sorensen brings to the table. I look at that as starter money and he's a barely passable reserve box safety/hybrid LB and little else.

Yeah. I looked him up and he's going to be in that 25-30 range for safety money, so yeah, that's a bottom end starter money.

After Berry's contract and HB making 14 currently, I need to re-calibrate my expectations of what a dollar of safety play can get you.

[DJ's left nut]

Most times I'd be looking to get him extended for a couple of years and reduce that year 1 hit to a figure more in-line with his role.

But he'll be 30 next year. I think you cut him and see how interested he is in staying around on the 1-year contract merry-go-round.

If he'll come back with a base of say $2.5 million, that saves a million on the cap and is probably around market for what he provides. He's not a bargain at that point but you're not getting gouged either.

[The Franchise]

Why waste money on Howard?

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Most times I'd be looking to get him extended for a couple of years and reduce that year 1 hit to a figure more in-line with his role.

But he'll be 30 next year. I think you cut him and see how interested he is in staying around on the 1-year contract merry-go-round.

If he'll come back with a base of say $2.5 million, that saves a million on the cap and is probably around market for what he provides. He's not a bargain at that point but you're not getting gouged either.

Yeah. That’s probably prudent.

I’d probably see if you can get him traded.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Why waste money on Howard?

A rookie isn't starting in this offense immediately and I'd like to see a competent back in there until one is ready, then transition to a contributory role and primary reserve. There's not a back on this roster I trust with that duty going into 2020.