***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[tk13]

Originally Posted by O.city

The whole test test test thing works, but you actually need to test everyone. Otherwise you’re just sampling from the sick with symptoms so that’s gonna skew your numbers

Or am I way off on this ?

No that's always been the case. That's what I've been saying on here for weeks now, even before it got bad. You're never gonna control the thing if you don't test like crazy. There's no other way because there's a large group of people who aren't showing symptoms but perfectly capable of spreading it around to hundreds if not thousands of people. It's like chasing a ghost.

Of course with that said, we aren't even capable of testing a lot of the people who have symptoms.

[O.city]

It’s basically “if we don’t distance and take some time, we’re gonna do the flu season in a month with no vaccines”

If you condensed the flu season into a month it would overrun hospitals. So yes it makes sense.

But damn there hasn’t been much thought given to the other issues it’s gonna cause

[Nickhead]

[Titty Meat]

I wish there was a way to quarantine the elderly and sick from society while leaving all the healthy folks to do the normal day to day stuff and likely building up an immunity to this. Instead of locking everything single thing down. Would make way more sense.

[O.city]

If that paper I posted is true, we’re gonna have a rough month or so but then we should come out the other side of it

[Hammock Parties]

[Fish]

Kansas is currently in a weird tussle between their governor and their State House and Senate. Pretty sure this is related to what Kelly wants to shut down right now. This just happened this afternoon..

Kansas lawmakers soften measure limiting Kelly’s emergency powers during pandemic

Kansas lawmakers have agreed to extend Gov. Laura Kelly’s emergency powers to respond to the new coronavirus, but will retain the right to review and revoke some of her decisions.

The Republican-controlled House and Senate voted unanimously Thursday to allow Kelly to continue exercising expanded authority until at least May 1 as part of a compromise that also gives legislators greater oversight as the pandemic progresses.

The deal negotiated by senators and representatives doesn’t go as far as many senators wanted. A version of the resolution approved by the Senate on Wednesday would have prohibited Kelly from seizing ammunition or private property and stopped her from controlling the movement of people within the state.

The final version of the resolution still stops Kelly from taking ammunition. But instead of banning her from commandeering private property or limiting movement, it empowers legislative leaders to revoke any orders she issues to that effect.

House Speaker Pro Tem Blaine Finch, an Ottawa Republican, said threat of the coronavirus will not disappear quickly. Responding will require “swift action” by the governor and the Kansas Department of Emergency Management, he said, as well as compromise with the Legislature.

“For those who are concerned about granting unfettered authority, so were the founders of this nation,” Finch said. “For those who are concerned that we don’t want to tie the hands of the executive to make decisions swiftly and to take action when lives can be saved and crisis averted, they have a point as well.”

The limitations come after Republicans recoiled at some of Kelly’s executive orders this week. On Tuesday, she ordered K-12 schools closed for the rest of the academic year, though districts will attempt to educate students remotely. The same day, she temporarily banned evictions and foreclosures to keep people in their homes during the crisis.

The resolution designates the chair of the Legislative Coordinating Council, comprised of top House and Senate leaders from both parties, to decide if Kelly has issued an improper order when the full Legislature isn’t in session. Currently, House Speaker Ron Ryckman, an Olathe Republican, is the chair.

If he makes an affirmative determination, then the full council would meet within three days and could revoke the order.

Under the resolution, the State Finance Council – a panel chaired the governor and made up of legislative leaders – is allowed to authorize one, 30-day extension of Kelly’s emergency powers. After that, the Legislative Coordinating Council can extend the powers in 30-day increments.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

It’s basically “if we don’t distance and take some time, we’re gonna do the flu season in a month with no vaccines”

If you condensed the flu season into a month it would overrun hospitals. So yes it makes sense.

But damn there hasn’t been much thought given to the other issues it’s gonna cause

Do you really think they didn’t consider the ramifications of doing this? Of course they did and in real time with the info they had they though this was the lesser of two evils , I am pretty confident it wasn’t a coin flip. It sucks , it sucks for Everyone in this thread, nobody is happy and I think we are all hoping it ends as quickly as possible.

I can’t believe it has only been about a week , it feels like months already.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by O.city

We’re finding there’s so many cases of mild to no symptoms, these numbers are kinda getting hollow to me. I’m no epidemiologist or data guy but it seems this is all coming from unknown data sets.

Basically there may be a huge number of people out there who’ve been exposed, weren’t tested and are now immune. Of course you’d need serology tests to check for antibodies.

I’m not trying to downplay anything and certainly not going to claim victory on anything at this point or ever really because there so many variables. I am just remaining optimistic and hopeful. But I’ve been beating this drum for a while and hope I’m right. I just don’t buy that if this thing is as contagious as we thought that it got here in late January and decided to take a month long break before spreading and having any affect. I suspect thousands of people got it without really knowing it and of course it keeps growing and now there are probably easily 100k with it. And if that’s the case it hasn’t yet overrun the health care system in that whole time. So though it’s bad and especially so for certain groups, it more closely resembles the flue in severity than some of the other outbreaks and what it has been suggested a being.

Now if that’s not true that aren’t that many cases then it’s not nearly as contagious as once thought. Because we know it’s been here since late January. That’s just what we know. It could have been here sooner given people come here from China all the same.

These two propositions do not coexist. It’s one or the other. I do believe it’s more of the contagious option with many more cases than known though just based on how common transmission seems to be amongst close groups such as the NBA players or localized outbreaks like the nursing home or northern Italy getting hit hard very quickly, way worst than areas like Rome which had it at the same time to start.

All that said of course we should do everything we can to understand it, treat it, and hopefully get a vaccine as soon as possible. Also ensuring healthcare facilities are able and prepared as best as possible so foregoing elective surgeries, limiting visitors, etc are all great ideas. The getting rid of large gatherings and putting limits on those also seem perfectly reasonable. But the idea of forced closures, shutting whole cities down, fines, etc. seems to have gotten a bit too much too quickly. I could probably even be convinced localized areas doing this is okay very temporarily with proper communication such as don’t go buy everything at the grocery stores all at once. It’s creating a lot more problems and uncertainty though.

I think this will end up being a pretty common thing to catch in the future but I don’t expect it to have some devastating return in the winter all at once because I do think it’s already very common so as winter returns people will get it but they won’t do so all at once or in the same region all at once as it will no longer be new. This will prevent healthcare from being overrun similar to the flu. It’s common and you don’t want to get it but you are never necessarily worried about being able to get treated. And judging by the medical community reaction to this I fully expect a vaccine and effective treatments much sooner than later. So perhaps this is entirely too optimistic but it’s the feeling I get and I along with everyone else probably hope I’m right.

The only thing I don’t really know and wonder about is if a vaccine and treatments are developed, how likely is it, or is it even possible, to completely eliminate it?

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by O.city

It’s not that anyone isn’t taking it seriously. It’s jumping to huge measures when you don’t have enough data.

I’m starting to really worry that we’ve went full shotgun approach when a BB gun would have worked

The paradox is that if it was obvious that we needed the full shotgun approach we probably missed the time when it could have been most effective.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Do you really think they didn’t consider the ramifications of doing this? Of course they did and in real time with the info they had they though this was the lesser of two evils , I am pretty confident it wasn’t a coin flip. It sucks , it sucks for Everyone in this thread, nobody is happy and I think we are all hoping it ends as quickly as possible.

I can’t believe it has only been about a week , it feels like months already.

Yeah while trying to keep this from becoming too DC, it's pretty obvious seeing the news from the Senate today that there was some advance warning. One of the Senators under fire began dumping stocks as early as January 24th. That's two months ago.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

California had 10,000+ cases and nearly 700 deaths during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic (which originated in the state, in San Diego)... and yet the state’s citizens were not put on virtual house arrest.

Maybe they should have been.

700 is a lot of people.

[Fish]

I thought this was a good interview from Fauci today. The interview robot was weird though...

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by tk13

Yeah while trying to keep this from becoming too DC, it's pretty obvious seeing the news from the Senate today that there was some advance warning. One of the Senators under fire now began dumping stocks as early as January 24th. That's two months ago.

Tons of major CEOs stepped down too.

[LiveSteam]

Yup. The amount of CEOs that have stepped down in the last 3 months is unheard of.