Early Mock 9/27/20

[kccrow]

Offseason

Chiefs extend S T. Mathieu for 2 years and LT E. Fisher for 4 years, reducing their 2021 cap hits.
RFA tender 1st Rd CB C. Ward and Orig. Rd WR B. Pringle
ERFA tender TE N. Keizer, DE D. Harris, and CB A. Brown
Re-sign OG K. Osemele to a 3-year deal and FB A. Sherman and DT M. Pennel to 1-year deals.
Release QB C. Henne, Retire RG L. Duvernay-Tardif (call it a hunch, that's all)
Re-sign the scrub squad to reserve/futures deals.
Let walk WR S. Watkins, S D. Sorensen, CB B. Breeland, LB D. Wilson, WR D. Robinson, OC A. Reiter, RT M. Remmers, DE T. Kpassagnon, OC D. Kilgore, CB A. Hamilton, TE R. Seals-Jones, S T. Thompson, DE T. Charlton, TE D. Yelder, OG A. Wylie, WR M. Kemp, RB Dar. Williams, LB B. Niemann

Draft

1. LB Nick Bolton, Missouri (6'0" 230)
The Chiefs linebackers are abysmal and need an injection of speed and talent. Bolton has both and can man any of the 3 spots.

2. OG Royce Newman, Ole Miss (6'5" 305)
The Chiefs need a long-term solution at guard and Newman could be the most athletic O-line specimen in the draft, ala Wirfs, which will speak to Reid and his zone scheme. I also think the breakdowns in protections this year are going to prompt Veach and Reid to address O-line early and often in 2021.

3. OC James Empey, BYU (6'4" 300)
There may not be a better center in the country overall but Empey gets no lover being from a lesser program. He's the best pass blocking center out there and we all know Reid will keep an eye on BYU players.

4. WR Kadarius Toney, Florida (5'11" 195)
There will be needs at WR no matter how you slice it and Toney is a prototypical Reid slash WR that can do alot underneath and turn small plays into big gains. A 2019 injury may keep him from going much higher.

4. CB Nick McCloud, Notre Dame/NC State (6'1" 190)
The CB room will continue to need additions again in 2021 with Breeland becoming a FA and Ward likely coming back on a 1-year tender. McCloud was a team captain at NC State before grad-transferring to ND. He's a long press corner with fluid, clean footwork for a longer corner and is good in off-coverage showing adequate burst to close and crowd the catch radius.

5. FS Brady Breeze, Oregon (6'0" 198)
Losing Dirty Dan will mean replacing him and Breeze brings alot of similar attributes and is just a solid football player. He hits hard for his size, he's pretty quick, and he gets his hands on footballs to create plays.

5. DE Malik Fisher, Villanova (6'4" 255)
At some point, the Chiefs will need to address at least depth at DE and I really like Fisher from Villanova in the FCS. He has a really similar build to Frank Clark, he's stout against the run, and he provides a solid pass rush.

6. LB Jacquez Williams, Wake Forest (6'2" 220)
I think at this juncture you're looking for guys that can play special teams and provide some depth, and the Chiefs will need it at LB. Williams is pretty quick and can man the weak side in the NFL, but he's going to need to gain some mass to take on NFL blockers. That said, he's shown some ability to make plays and be reliable in pass coverage.

7. TE Nick Muse, South Carolina (6'4" 240)
The Chiefs always seem to be lacking in the TE department, so why not take a flier on a guy that has flashed some playmaking ability and attitude in Muse. He could be a nice sleeper pickup.


QB: P. Mahomes, J. Ta'amu
RB: C. Edwards-Helaire, D. Williams, D. Thompson
FB: A. Sherman

WR: T. Hill, M. Hardman, B. Pringle, K. Toney, K. Lipscomb, J. Forston
TE: T. Kelce, N. Keizer, N. Muse

LT: E. Fisher
LG: K. Osemele, M. Rankin
OC: J. Empey, N. Allegretti
RG: R. Newman, Y. Durant
RT: M. Schwartz, L. Niang

DE: F. Clark, D. Harris
DT: C. Jones, T. Wharton
DT: D. Nnadi, K. Saunders, M. Pennel
DE: M. Danna, M. Fisher, T. Ward

SLB: W. Gay, D. Harris
ILB: A. Hitchens, J. Williams
WLB: N. Bolton, D. O'Daniel

CB: C. Ward, L. Sneed, R. Fenton, N. McCloud, T. Keyes
S: T. Mathieu, J. Thornhill, B. Breeze, A. Watts, R. Clemons

K: Butker
P: Townsend
LS: Winchester

[Chargem]

Not a criticism of your mock at all, but ugh this makes me think the talent could really drop off the roster next year?

Comparing this draft to 2020 roster

QB - Same
RB - Same
WR - A lot worse
TE - Same
Oline - probably worse in 2021?
Dline - A little worse
LB - Better
CB - Same/worse
S - Same

[duncan_idaho]

I like most of it. Bolton is really good and makes a lot of plays in all phases of the game. He fights through a lot of traffic, too, to do it - as his DL is generally outmatched in SEC play.

I think they take a WR higher than that if they're letting Watkins and Robinson walk. It's supposed to be another good WR draft.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Chargem

Not a criticism of your mock at all, but ugh this makes me think the talent could really drop off the roster next year?

Comparing this draft to 2020 roster

QB - Same
RB - Same
WR - A lot worse
TE - Same
Oline - probably worse in 2021?
Dline - A little worse
LB - Better
CB - Same/worse
S - Same

I think it's probable we're going to see a drop-off at WR. We just can't keep the players in house in Watkins and DRob. Maybe they bring back DRob but I think that's still a bit of a stretch.

I don't really see making changes on the interior OLine as a huge issue. While Reiter and Wylie aren't the worst I've ever seen, they certainly aren't that great. Perhaps they bring one of the two back though, depending on the cap.

DLine, I'm sure Veach works some voodoo shit and brings in a vet or two cheap but I just can't put my finger on the who right now. I think that former Notre Dame kid that plays for the Lions could be a guy but his name slips me. Kind of underachieving so far in his career, much like Taco.

I don't think we'll really get worse at CB with another year in for Ward and Fenton plus Sneed playing the way he has as a rookie. Develop another mid-rounder and Keyes and call it a day there.

All told, we may see some short-term regression for long-term gains in a few spots but that's probably not avoidable for the Chiefs or many teams in the league if the cap doesn't go up.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I think it's probable we're going to see a drop-off at WR. We just can't keep the players in house in Watkins and DRob. Maybe they bring back DRob but I think that's still a bit of a stretch.

I don't really see making changes on the interior OLine as a huge issue. While Reiter and Wylie aren't the worst I've ever seen, they certainly aren't that great. Perhaps they bring one of the two back though, depending on the cap.

DLine, I'm sure Veach works some voodoo shit and brings in a vet or two cheap but I just can't put my finger on the who right now. I think that former Notre Dame kid that plays for the Lions could be a guy but his name slips me. Kind of underachieving so far in his career, much like Taco.

I don't think we'll really get worse at CB with another year in for Ward and Fenton plus Sneed playing the way he has as a rookie. Develop another mid-rounder and Keyes and call it a day there.

All told, we may see some short-term regression for long-term gains in a few spots but that's probably not avoidable for the Chiefs or many teams in the league if the cap doesn't go up.

WR at 32 might work as well...

^ see what I did there?

[staylor26]

I love Bolton for the Chiefs at 32. Gay and Bolton would go a long way to fixing this LB group.

If Bolton is gone, I’d take a long look at Chaz Surrat as well.

[JohnnyHammersticks]

I don't think the potential losses of Sammy and DRob will hurt us that much tbh. We'll need another body for sure, but their production can easily be replaced.

I see us going WR in one of the first 2 rounds, the same way I saw us going RB in the one of the first 2 rounds of this year's draft. Wish there was some way to make the numbers work and get Allen Robinson from the Bears - I've always thought he'd be the perfect WR opposite Tyreek - but that's a pipe dream.

[Tribal Warfare]

Add Spencer Brown from UAB ass a possibility for a power running back

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks

I don't think the potential losses of Sammy and DRob will hurt us that much tbh. We'll need another body for sure, but their production can easily be replaced.

I see us going WR in one of the first 2 rounds, the same way I saw us going RB in the one of the first 2 rounds of this year's draft. Wish there was some way to make the numbers work and get Allen Robinson from the Bears - I've always thought he'd be the perfect WR opposite Tyreek - but that's a pipe dream.

Losing Sammy is going to hurt a lot actually. Hardman isn't physical nor is he much of a blocker.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Losing Sammy is going to hurt a lot actually. Hardman isn't physical nor is he much of a blocker.

Agree - Sammy proved his worth in the play offs. Plus it may or may not be true, but it "feels" like receivers need a year or so to really get deep into Andy's playbook, so even if they take a 1st or 2nd rounder in the draft or pick up a vet you have to wonder how much he will be able to achieve in year one, which is why I think losing Robinson and Watkins the same year is problematic, at least for next year.

I think I would hope for maybe another 1 year min deal for Robinson and a high draft pick to replace Watkins.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Chargem

I think I would hope for maybe another 1 year min deal for Robinson and a high draft pick to replace Watkins.

It would complete dumb luck if the Chiefs could actually replace Sammy Watkins' talent with the #32 overall pick.

Watkins is a fantastic blocker who's very physical yet can make the acrobatic and dramatic catch when needed and he's like a running back with the ball in his hands.

I'd rather see Watkins back on a deal similar to 2020's as opposed to chasing down his replacement.

[RunKC]

I’d really like a LB. that is clearly our most pressing need and I think we could quickly turn that into a strength with that draft pick and Gay.

There’s other positions we could take a look at like CB, WR or even DE but it would have to be a damn good talented player that fell.

I love Sammy but if this next years class is as good at WR as this years class. Regardless if we keep Sammy another year or not, I’d love to get a bigger speed threat that can block. Someone like AJ Brown, DK Metcalf OT Chase Claypool.

[DaneMcCloud]

Veach doesn't draft guys to sit on the bench so unless they're planning to completely revamp the interior of their offensive line, a move that doesn't make much sense while they're in a Super Bowl Window, I can' see them taking a center and guard in consecutive early rounds.

I can see them taking some guys late, like in 2014 with Fulton and LDT, but not with a second and a third.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I love Sammy but if this next years class is as good at WR as this years class. Regardless if we keep Sammy another year or not, I’d love to get a bigger speed threat that can block. Someone like AJ Brown, DK Metcalf OT Chase Claypool.

But like I said, unless the Chiefs get incredibly lucky at #32, it's going to be next to impossible to replace Watson's skillset.

You've listed one guy in each of the past 3 entire drafts as examples, which means the odds are greatly stacked against the Chiefs in terms of getting an actual replacement for Watkins.

There aren't many WR's in the NFL with Watkins skillset and ability and I hope the Chiefs extend him for at least the next 2 years, if not three.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

But like I said, unless the Chiefs get incredibly lucky at #32, it's going to be next to impossible to replace Watson's skillset.

You've listed one guy in each of the past 3 entire drafts as examples, which means the odds are greatly stacked against the Chiefs in terms of getting an actual replacement for Watkins.

There aren't many WR's in the NFL with Watkins skillset and ability and I hope the Chiefs extend him for at least the next 2 years, if not three.

I'd love to see it. I agree 100% you aren't replacing Watkins' skillset in this draft. There are no receivers like that in this draft IMO. I think you can get alot of it from guys like Stevenson and Toney, but neither can block like Sammy can. I think the problem potentially lies with where the cap ends up. In this scenario, I'm expecting the Chiefs to be right around 200 million, which is a slight jump up from where we're currently at, but guys at OTC expected it to go down below 180 million, which would really **** the Chiefs hard.

The cap is also one of the reasons I didn't project re-signings across the O-line and instead the use of high end picks to get immediate starters there. Hopefully, we get better news on the cap. In my ideal world, I'm projecting Stevenson in the 2nd at WR and holding off on a guard until probably the 6th. That said, I'd put priority on protecting Pat over more weapons if things are as they seem right now.