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Old 11-21-2018, 12:19 AM  
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB
Spoiler!


Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR
Spoiler!


There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL
Spoiler!


That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush
Spoiler!


We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner
Spoiler!


I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:45 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
An option that will still probably put his cap hit around or beyond $20M.

You may as well just extend him as fast as possible. Get ahead of it and pay less.
true but that $20million hit is probably going to $40 million by then if he hit the open market.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:52 AM   #62
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Did you take into account the emotional attachment from the fans?
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:55 AM   #63
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true but that $20million hit is probably going to $40 million by then if he hit the open market.
Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:58 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.

Is his girlfriend a supermodel that makes $140 million a year?

We at least need to get Mahomes brand selling which helps skirt the cap and income... You know TB12 is sold inside Gillette,..
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:01 AM   #65
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There is no right or wrong way to build and pay for your team. Everyone wants to chase the latest trend, but there really isn't any (other than QB's get paid).

Last 3 Super Bowl teams and 3 largest cap hits

Eagles - Jeffrey, WR(10.7M), Johnson, RT (9.8M), Cox, DT (9.4)
Pats - Brady (14), Solder, LT (11.1), McCourty, CB (10.9)

Pats - Brady (13.7), Solder, LT (10.3), Hightower, LB (7.7)
Falcons - Ryan (23.7), Jones (15.9), Jackson, DE (6.35 - thanks Pioli)

Broncos - Manning (17.5), Thomas (13.2), Clady, LT (10.6)
Panthers - Johnson, DE (20), Newton (13), Kalil, C (11.8)
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:04 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.
Man I’m wondering what the QB landscape will look like now that Cousins changed it.

Fully guaranteed contracts might be the new thing in the NFL.
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:10 AM   #67
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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Originally Posted by Reerun_KC View Post
Did you take into account the emotional attachment from the fans?
Well this line of thinking started from my assumption that you pay the homegrown guys.

Then Mac459 texted me the edge list and where we thought Ford fit in. YIKES. Then I went down a rabbit hole.
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:11 AM   #68
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Man I’m wondering what the QB landscape will look like now that Cousins changed it.

Fully guaranteed contracts might be the new thing in the NFL.
New CBA is coming up too right around when Mahomes is due for an extension.

I would LOVE to see the league go to fully guaranteed contracts that make deals 2-3 years more common. If we had that with Berry right now, it’d be awesome.
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:13 AM   #69
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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Originally Posted by Chiefnj2 View Post
There is no right or wrong way to build and pay for your team. Everyone wants to chase the latest trend, but there really isn't any (other than QB's get paid).

Last 3 Super Bowl teams and 3 largest cap hits

Eagles - Jeffrey, WR(10.7M), Johnson, RT (9.8M), Cox, DT (9.4)
Pats - Brady (14), Solder, LT (11.1), McCourty, CB (10.9)

Pats - Brady (13.7), Solder, LT (10.3), Hightower, LB (7.7)
Falcons - Ryan (23.7), Jones (15.9), Jackson, DE (6.35 - thanks Pioli)

Broncos - Manning (17.5), Thomas (13.2), Clady, LT (10.6)
Panthers - Johnson, DE (20), Newton (13), Kalil, C (11.8)
Good info. Thanks.

Brady At 14M. Christ. Hopefully Clark does the same sweetheart deal for Pat.
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:13 AM   #70
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I'm guessing we end up with a decently long lockout when the CBA expires.
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:14 AM   #71
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
New CBA is coming up too right around when Mahomes is due for an extension.

I would LOVE to see the league go to fully guaranteed contracts that make deals 2-3 years more common. If we had that with Berry right now, it’d be awesome.
Someone on here suggested cap% contracts for QBs. I’d be down with that. Then there is no quibbling over gurantees and shit.
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:14 AM   #72
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I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.
+1 This is the best take. The Mahomes/Hill/Kelce trio is synergistic and it's what makes the O work. Take a leg from the tripod and it falls over. Get Hunt and Mahomes done long-term ASAP while they're cheap (relatively). That's a risk I'd definitely take. A decent RB can be had in the draft, so adios Hunt (I do love you though). Berry - gone, Houston - gone (or cheap, which I doubt), keep Jones....that's a good amount of money to work with, especially considering the ever-inflating salary cap.
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:53 AM   #73
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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BB paid Gronk top money -- he was the highest paid TE in the NFL for a while.

Let's face it, other than Moss, the Patriots haven't had a WR that was remotely worth top money. Cooks makes it now, but, I mean, does anything think he's a top 5 WR? He's paid like he is, and he's really good, but he'll never wear a Gold Jacket.

And half of the Patriots run with BB was "old NFL", before all these rules changes that make Hill twice as dangerous as he would've been 10-15 years ago.

I think you MUST keep Hill tbh. 25 and entering his prime, with an elite QB. Those are two big pieces to any championship formula.
To be fair the Patriots molded the modern NFL with that Moss jagernaut. And they didn’t think it was worth the money then. When everyone else was still thinking Larry ****ing Johnson was the franchise piece.
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Old 11-21-2018, 10:58 AM   #74
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I cant buy any kind of Hill/OBJ comparisons, OBJ doesnt have the same level of drive and commitment to his craft as Hill does, in my estimation

Then of course we can always point to what a turd OBJ has apparently been behind the scenes... something thats never been a problem for Hill
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Old 11-21-2018, 11:08 AM   #75
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As I see it, the musts on the offense are Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce, with Hunt almost in that group.We're good with Watkins for 2 more years and WR #-3-6 are pretty much mix and match, so let's start looking at the O-line. We're going to need both Ts in a couple years, a LG and C. I'm not sure we don't have a couple of those guys under contract right now a a friendly price. Lots of Big 10 talent out there this spring.
On the other side of the ball, Jones is the only one I see we must have. Ford is playing for a contract, period. I just don't see him as a long-term solution. Franchise him if we have to. We're stuck with the Houston contract, so let's get Speaks in there more. I think I'm semi-OK with our ILB situation. Our secondary needs help, especially at the S position. Berry's contract, as it stands now, is a boat anchor. I just can't justify pumping a lot of cash into another big name S when we have some question marks like Lucas and Watts already on the payroll and Berry maybe giving us a couple more years.

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