Chiefs Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts - Page 9

**Buehler445** · 11-21-2018, 12:19 AM

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB

Spoiler!

Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR

Spoiler!

There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL

Spoiler!

That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush

Spoiler!

We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another mother****er who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that **** of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner

Spoiler!

I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.

**srvy** · 11-21-2018, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Guys I’m targeting in FA...if their respective position guy in KC is allowed to walk.

Landon Collins
Earl Thomas
Honey Badger
Lamarcus Joyner
Shane Rey/Shaq Barrett
Kareem Jackson
Ronald Darby
Demarcus Lawrence

Why Shane Rey I feel he has been a major disappointment in Denver.

O.city · 11-21-2018, 04:05 PM

I'd rather have Mathieu than Thomas, even with Thomas being a better player. Age and everything just isn't worth it.

I'd attack the secondary in the draft

**BossChief** · 11-21-2018, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by srvy

Why Shane Rey I feel he has been a major disappointment in Denver.

Because he would probably come to KC on a very cheap contract and still has a high upside.

**SAUTO** · 11-21-2018, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by srvy

Why Shane Rey I feel he has been a major disappointment in Denver.

Buy low and how it goes better than the contract

**SAUTO** · 11-21-2018, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd rather have Mathieu than Thomas, even with Thomas being a better player. Age and everything just isn't worth it.

I'd attack the secondary in the draft

I agree and I hate mathieu

**BossChief** · 11-21-2018, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd rather have Mathieu than Thomas, even with Thomas being a better player. Age and everything just isn't worth it.

I'd attack the secondary in the draft

If we could come out of FA with Honey Badger/Earl Thomas along with Ronald Darby, we could really attack the draft. Especially if Berry returns to form.

Which I’m told he will be damn close to it. Supposedly he hasn’t lost any speed and still runs the same speed on the treadmill as before the Achilles injury.

O.city · 11-21-2018, 04:13 PM

I mean, I'd take Earl, but his age is just meh.

A guy like Ray would be a decent buy low option. That's where you need to start hitting some big hits.

O.city · 11-21-2018, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

If we could come out of FA with Honey Badger/Earl Thomas along with Ronald Darby, we could really attack the draft. Especially if Berry returns to form.

Which I’m told he will be damn close to it. Supposedly he hasn’t lost any speed and still runs the same speed on the treadmill as before the Achilles injury.

I don't really get the Darby love. He's always been just a guy to me.

I'd draft a couple corners early and keep that money in house.

oldman · 11-21-2018, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

2019 FAs (48m cap space after rollover)

Conley
Nelson
Morse
Bailey
Ford
Sherman
Harris

2020 FAs (65m in cap space)

Hill
Robinson
Jones
Williams
Fuller
Ragland
Murray

In the 2019 group I'd probably keep Nelson because there isn't much CB talent out there, Sherman for reasonable bucks, Bailey for the same cash, and franchise Ford. The rest can walk, we have their replacements.
The 2020 group is a little tougher. Hill and Jones are keepers. Williams and Fuller for the right money. I'd stick with DRob, but Ragland and Murray can go.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 11-21-2018, 04:28 PM

Signing big names in FA is fun and all but I’m telling you, I wouldn’t expect it. Veach knows that the big money needs to be given to guys already on the roster.

Even Dee Ford has to be franchised at this point over signing any FA like Thomas or Darby.

**BossChief** · 11-21-2018, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Signing big names in FA is fun and all but I’m telling you, I wouldn’t expect it. Veach knows that the big money needs to be given to guys already on the roster.

Even Dee Ford has to be franchised at this point over signing any FA like Thomas or Darby.

We have 48m in cap space and a team that players will want to come to for lots of reasons.

We can keep all of those guys and still have 15m in cap space to go get a couple guys that can help us get over the hump while Pats still on his rookie deal.

**BossChief** · 11-21-2018, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

I don't really get the Darby love. He's always been just a guy to me.

I'd draft a couple corners early and keep that money in house.

Dude. Look at next years roster.

If we don’t retain Nelson, we have Fuller and nobody else. I’m not a fan of going into next year with 2-3 rookie corners playing significant time.

Are you?

**srvy** · 11-21-2018, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Because he would probably come to KC on a very cheap contract and still has a high upside.

Nah I am always leary guys that underperform knowing a payday is on the horizon.

**SAUTO** · 11-21-2018, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by srvy

Nah I am always leary guys that underperform knowing a payday is on the horizon.

He's behind the eight ball there though

kccrow · 11-21-2018, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

2019 FAs (48m cap space after rollover)

Conley
Nelson
Morse
Bailey
Ford
Sherman
Harris

2020 FAs (65m in cap space)

Hill
Robinson
Jones
Williams
Fuller
Ragland
Murray

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Woah. That’s bad. Some of those guys can get bent or play for peanuts. Some of those are going to HURT.

Yep... I think you're looking somewhere in the 4/60-5/75 range for a Jones extension, a 5/90 with Hill, and 5/85 with Ford.

Personally, I'd extend Jones and Hill this offseason to put some of the bonus money onto their rookie deals and lower the caps a tad in the extension years. I'd franchise Ford and try to trade him, and if that doesn't work out then let him walk after 2019. I'd sign Ford if it weren't for Houston's huge contract at the same position but I don't think a team can eat two of them simultaneously with all the other contracts coming due.

11-21-2018, 12:19 AM
Buehler445 Supporter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Scott City KS Casino cash: $2344734	Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts. I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com. RB Spoiler! Todd Gurley 5 years $57.5M ($14.375M avg) $21.95M Guaranteed. David Johnson 3 years $39M ($13 avg) $24.69M Guaranteed Devonta Freeman 5 years $41.25M ($8.25M avg) $18.3 Guaranteed LeSean McCoy 5 years $40.05M ($8.01M avg) $18.25 Guaranteed Saquon Barkley 5 years $31.2 M (7.8M avg) $31.2 Guaranteed (pending option) Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck. WR Spoiler! OBJ 5 years $90M ($18M avg) $40.96M Guaranteed Antonio Brown 4 years $68M ($17M avg) $19M Guaranteed Mike Evans 5 years $82M ($16.5M avg) $38.3M Guaranteed DeAndre Hopkins 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $36.5M Guaranteed Brandin Cooks 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $20.46M Guaranteed There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know. DL Spoiler! Aaron Donald 6 years $135M ($22.5M avg) $50M Guaranteed Ezekiel Ansah 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise) Demarcus Lawrence 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise) Fletcher Cox 6 years $102.6M ($17.1M avg) $36.3M Guaranteed JJ Watt 7 years $100M ($16.7M avg) $20.9M Guaranteed That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there. Pass Rush Spoiler! Khalil Mack 6 years $141M ($23.5M avg) $60M Guaranteed Von Miller 5 years $114M (19.1M avg) $42M Guaranteed (** Donk Forever) Oliver Vernon 4 years $85M ($17M avg) $40M Guaranteed Justin Houston 5 years $101M ($16.8M avg) $32.5M Guaranteed Chandler Jones 4 Years $82.5M ($16.5M avg) $31M Guaranteed. We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another motherer who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes. Corner Spoiler!** Josh Norman 5 Years $75M ($15M avg) $36.5M Guaranteed. Trumaine Johnson 5 Years $72.5M ($14.5M avg) $34M Guarnteed. Xavier Rhodes 5 years $70.1M (14M avg) $20M Guaranteed Patrick Peterson 5 years $70M (14M avg) $16.5M Guaranteed Kyle Fuller 4 years $56M ($14M avg) $18M Guaranteed I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good. I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it. That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap. My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.
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11-21-2018, 04:05 PM	#122
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2774064	I'd rather have Mathieu than Thomas, even with Thomas being a better player. Age and everything just isn't worth it. I'd attack the secondary in the draft
Posts: 81,208

11-21-2018, 04:13 PM	#127
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2774064	I mean, I'd take Earl, but his age is just meh. A guy like Ray would be a decent buy low option. That's where you need to start hitting some big hits.
Posts: 81,208

11-21-2018, 04:28 PM	#130
pugsnotdrugs19 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS Join Date: Aug 2013 Casino cash: $9159447	Signing big names in FA is fun and all but I’m telling you, I wouldn’t expect it. Veach knows that the big money needs to be given to guys already on the roster. Even Dee Ford has to be franchised at this point over signing any FA like Thomas or Darby.
Posts: 26,326