Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

[Fat Elvis]

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by DTLB58

All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

[KCDC]

As far as a trade down is concerned, the fact that they are shopping Albert suggests they have found someone to trade up to draft Geno. If they trade down, they know that a QB won't be there and they will be likely to have to take an LT. So they trade Albert so that they can take the LT at something like 1.8, get a first next year from BUF, they trade Albert for a second this year and a third next year.

That way, they take Fisher at 1.8, and get a decent first round pick next year, while using Albert to try and get back the crazy compensation they gave up for AS this year.

Sadly, that means no QB for us. They are choosing instead to have two first rounders next year, which sounds good, but they will not be enough to trade for the first pick next year to get the best QB in next year's draft.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by DTLB58

That's your opinion. Not necessarily this coaches or GM's.

No anyone who isn't ****ing blind can see that.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by DTLB58

Exact thing I was thinking after I read his paper. All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.

So your theory and belief is that there will not be any QBs in this draft that will be any good or our crack team of talent spotters would know? Therefore we need to draft a tackle at 1.1 or where ever to replace the "Probowl caliber LT" (Andy's words not mine) we hope to get a 2nd for?

Brilliant!!

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by KCDC

As far as a trade down is concerned, the fact that they are shopping Albert suggests they have found someone to trade up to draft Geno.

No...

[Jerm]

Originally Posted by Crush

That Saints D was hot garbage. Alex Smith couldn't convert on 3rd down if his life depended on it the next week against the Giants.

See that is such a bullshit argument....regardless of whether the D is "garbage" or not you still have to make the frickin plays.

That'd be like flipping it around and dismissing a large part of what Geno did in college because he consistently played below average to terrible defenses and when he played someone like a K-State didn't play well at all. Does it take away from what he did or make him any less of a prospect? Uh no.

I like Geno...I wanted Geno...I still do...but I'm not losing any sleep over the fact he more than likely will be playing elsewhere in the NFL.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by KCDC

As far as a trade down is concerned, the fact that they are shopping Albert suggests they have found someone to trade up to draft Geno.

It suggests that they want to pinch pennies with Albert. Nothing more, nothing less. Either it's negotiating publicly to get his demands down, or it's straight up trying to get rid of him.

[B14ckmon]

Originally Posted by KCDC

As far as a trade down is concerned, the fact that they are shopping Albert suggests they have found someone to trade up to draft Geno.

No it doesn't. It could suggest they can't find a reasonable offer to trade down, and trading Albert guarantees a Joeckel pick.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Yes, I know the article doesn't specifically discuss Geno Smith, but it treats draft pick slots as generic players and talks about value of that pick in terms of previous statistics instead of the individual attributes of that particular prospect. I'm not criticizing the article, I actually think it's very good. I'm pointing out that it has the same predictive flaw that those who use the draft position of prior super bowl winning QBs to make a case for "trying" by taking a QB in the first round (or with the first pick) in a particular draft.

It's probably pretty good for predicting results on average over a long period, but it's not so good for predicting results of a specific pick. For example, if the 1.1 pick is used on a QB this year, it's pretty unlikely that they'll end up with a QB whose Career Approximate Value is extremely close to that of Brad Johnson (like +/- 1 or 2 points). Like someone else said, it's probably more like a bell curve distribution around BJ.

I'm not being critical of the article. I'm being critical of anyone who would try to misuse the article.

Therein lies the rub. First of all, the sample size is really small, just 62 number one draft picks; secondly, in terms of QBs the sample size is shrunk even more since not all #1 picks were Qbs; thirdly, there is a wide variance of standard deviation because of extreme outliers like Peyton Manning and JaMarcus Russell.

I suppose that is why I asked what are people's definitions of a "franchise QB."

Is a franchise QB defined by how many pro-bowls they are selected?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many Super Bowls they win?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many times "they will their team to win"?

Is a franchise QB defined by how much extra revenue they generate for their team?

How long do you give a QB to prove he is a franchise QB?

I don't know.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Therein lies the rub. First of all, the sample size is really small, just 62 number one draft picks; secondly, in terms of QBs the sample size is shrunk even more since not all #1 picks were Qbs; thirdly, there is a wide variance of standard deviation because of extreme outliers like Peyton Manning and JaMarcus Russell.

I suppose that is why I asked what are people's definitions of a "franchise QB."

Is a franchise QB defined by how many pro-bowls they are selected?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many Super Bowls they win?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many times "they will their team to win"?

Is a franchise QB defined by how much extra revenue they generate for their team?

How long do you give a QB to prove he is a franchise QB?

I don't know.

I've agreed with all of your posts in this thread. You're asking the right questions, IMO. I've personally been shocked that many people now think that Joe Flacco is a "franchise quarterback" and I found it interesting when you posted his CAV next to all those other QBs in post 77.

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by KCDC

As far as a trade down is concerned, the fact that they are shopping Albert suggests they have found someone to trade up to draft Geno. If they trade down, they know that a QB won't be there and they will be likely to have to take an LT. So they trade Albert so that they can take the LT at something like 1.8, get a first next year from BUF, they trade Albert for a second this year and a third next year.

That way, they take Fisher at 1.8, and get a decent first round pick next year, while using Albert to try and get back the crazy compensation they gave up for AS this year.

Sadly, that means no QB for us. They are choosing instead to have two first rounders next year, which sounds good, but they will not be enough to trade for the first pick next year to get the best QB in next year's draft.

I like that theory but problem is Arizona at 1.7 will take Fisher if he is still there.

[Ace Gunner]

Originally Posted by DTLB58

Exact thing I was thinking after I read his paper. All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.

yes, and even when you do, you have to be firing on all cylinders so to speak and a lil luck usually finds it's way to you in the game of football. I am a NYG fan and the recent run on championships has been largely with the same team, whether win it all or lose out early. so there's that. someone mentioned a 9 - 7 giants champ team, it goes to show a lot of aspects about success as a football team.

[Hammock Parties]

Geno sucks!

Albert sucks!

All because Reid and Dorsey say so!

[Ace Gunner]

and obtw- Eli was poopy pants his first years. fans threw stuff at him all the time at home in the meadowlands. a lot of fans still say Eli isn't an elite QB but just got lucky, had a good defense etc.

[Zaphnath]

overinflated expectations?

As a fan and I think my expectations are right on.
I see Geno as a guy we should draft and develop for a year or two.
We already have the veteran and a guy to push him.

So do the right thing Andy - draft a freakin' qb with the overall # 1