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Old 05-12-2020, 12:03 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The team is not set up great for 2021.

Three pre-rebuttals out of the way:

1. We should just focus on 2020. Why worry about 2021?

A. There’s nothing wrong with looking ahead.
B. There’s also nothing with focusing on just the upcoming season either. But GMs and teams don’t approach team building that way and neither do some fans.
C. The goal, one assumes, is to become a dynasty. This team looks great for 2020, but the forecast in 2021 is trickier.

2. We have Mahomes, we good.

A. Mahomes alone ensures that we’re going to be really good. Our goal is more ambitious than being really good.
B. The Packers have Rodgers. The Saints have Brees. Hell, the Colts had Manning. You need a full team to win.

3. In Reid & Veach I trust.

A. Me too, mostly. But see 1A above.
B. If that is the extent to which you currently care about 2021 and beyond, that’s perfectly fine. This forum is generally for looking ahead.

The current outlook for 2021:

Lots of holes, minimal cap space.

This team is signing Jones and Mahomes, and that’s going to zap our ability of making anything but low-grade splashes in free agency.

This is something the AP Lab mentioned yesterday, and I have been suspecting.

They said they understand “running it back” and going for back to back Super Bowls, but the goal has seemed to be a dynasty, and if that’s the case, we’re not set up great for 2021.

There’s not going to be a ton of cap space in 2021 after we ink Jones & Mahomes. We’re going to have huge holes at linebacker (at least one starter, two if we cut Hitch), DE (Clark and Okafor remain under contract, but only Speaks and Danna are behind them, CB (Ward, Sneed, Fenton, BoPete is our depth there), and Sorensen will walk so we’ll need a third safety.

We also continue to have zero depth behind Kelce and our WR corps is going to be skeletal.

I do think our OL is built well though. Allegretti and Darryl Williams give us options at center should we let Reiter walk. Wylie, Rankins, and LDT body out the guards while Niang, Fisher, and Schwartz body out the tackles.

DT is solid with Jones, Nnadi, and Saunders. S needs depth but is solid. QB/RB is good. Special teams will be set.

What is your early prognostication for filling our ostensible 2021 holes?
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Old 05-12-2020, 12:43 PM   #2
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My opinion is we're still in dynasty mode in 2021. We're in dynasty mode as long as Mahomes is our starting QB. There will be some seasons in which we see downgrades of talent at certain positions. It's just going to happen. In many cases we'll be going into a season thinking we downgraded, when it reality we just got younger and cheaper at the position.

All teams will have to rely on these options going into any season. Hell, a center is pretty crucial to an OL's stability, and we flat out let that guy walk and gave the job to to Austin Reiter all because he was cheap. He had a tiny bit of experience coming in, but not much, and his injury history wasn't all that promising. And he wasn't the greatest C in the world, but we did win a Super Bowl with him.

That's going to have to happen. With any team. Any year. And just about any position. How many times has Tom Brady had a reduction of talent on paper going into the season? Just about every damn season. If Mahomes is truly great, he'll overcome it and give us some great seasons of football.

We won't win the Super Bowl every year. We're probably going to see one of these pieces of our Super Bowl core walk away after 2020. Probably multiple pieces. That's okay. The point is that with Mahomes, any given year is a possibility to win a Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers hasn't been back to the Super Bowl, but how many conference championship games has he played in? Tons. That's called challenging for the Super Bowl. In some cases luck just wasn't on his side. In other cases those Green Bay teams overachieved just to get to that championship game in the first place. The good news is Andy Reid >>>> Mike McCarthy, and Brett Veach is barely 40 years old-- he's not a senile old man like Ted Thompson was.
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Old 05-12-2020, 01:24 PM   #3
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Old 05-12-2020, 01:29 PM   #4
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Yeah, I think they went a little too hard into the 'run it back' thing w/ the return of Watkins and LDT.

They needed to take a bit of a hit this year to clear the cap space and if needed, have it rolled into next year. It also would've sped up the development clock on Hardman.

I get it - back to back puts you into a whole new tier of history. Lots of teams have won it once but winning it twice (with a young QB) puts you on a potential 'team of the 20s' path and that's just awfully intoxicating. You figure you get your back to back and worry about the rest later.

It's a damn tempting proposition and maybe time will tell us it's the right one. I just think they get diminishing returns on Sammy and LDT here. And I still think they should've just bitten the bullet on Hitchens this season to free up his salary slot outright in 2021 (as opposed to likely carrying dead money for him next year). Though if Niang turns into a starting quality OL, you will have probably needed to use the pick you used on him to replace Hitchens with someone like Malik Harrison. Sorensen's another inflated salary and $4 million or so we'd probably like to have in our pockets next season.

Maybe that's just too much turnover. But some of the decisions being made right now are going to make 2021 and beyond REAL tough to deal with.
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Old 05-12-2020, 01:31 PM   #5
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A couple thoughts.

1. I have no problem looking ahead. However, things happen and change every season. So I'm not going to spend much time worrying about things you just can't control.

2. One word you failed to mention: DRAFT. If we continue to draft well and the cap continues to increase we will be fine.

3. I think the Chiefs ability to begin to address the offensive line in the 2020 draft provided some relief in future drafts, making it easier to target LB, WR, TE positions higher in the draft.

4. Veach has done a great job filling holes with cheap quality vets, that will continue.
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Old 05-12-2020, 01:32 PM   #6
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We should have 7 picks in the first 5 rounds next year...
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Old 05-12-2020, 01:47 PM   #7
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We should have 7 picks in the first 5 rounds next year...
Fuller and Ogbah? Ragland probably doesn't net you anything; if he would, Remmers would presumably cancel him out.

Yeah - maybe a 4th and a 5th from that pair.

If you get one guy who contributes in a meaningful way by week 10 of his 2nd year, you're doing pretty well with those 2 picks. If Fenton becomes the rule rather than the exception, we'll win the championship 5 times in the next decade - at least.

I just don't think you can go expecting that kind of immediate help from 3rd day picks. And we're talking 2021 specifically here so the comp picks are long-shots at best to help much by then.
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Old 05-12-2020, 01:52 PM   #8
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My opinion is we're still in dynasty mode in 2021. We're in dynasty mode as long as Mahomes is our starting QB. There will be some seasons in which we see downgrades of talent at certain positions. It's just going to happen. In many cases we'll be going into a season thinking we downgraded, when it reality we just got younger and cheaper at the position.

All teams will have to rely on these options going into any season. Hell, a center is pretty crucial to an OL's stability, and we flat out let that guy walk and gave the job to to Austin Reiter all because he was cheap. He had a tiny bit of experience coming in, but not much, and his injury history wasn't all that promising. And he wasn't the greatest C in the world, but we did win a Super Bowl with him.

That's going to have to happen. With any team. Any year. And just about any position. How many times has Tom Brady had a reduction of talent on paper going into the season? Just about every damn season. If Mahomes is truly great, he'll overcome it and give us some great seasons of football.

We won't win the Super Bowl every year. We're probably going to see one of these pieces of our Super Bowl core walk away after 2020. Probably multiple pieces. That's okay. The point is that with Mahomes, any given year is a possibility to win a Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers hasn't been back to the Super Bowl, but how many conference championship games has he played in? Tons. That's called challenging for the Super Bowl. In some cases luck just wasn't on his side. In other cases those Green Bay teams overachieved just to get to that championship game in the first place. The good news is Andy Reid >>>> Mike McCarthy, and Brett Veach is barely 40 years old-- he's not a senile old man like Ted Thompson was.
This is all supremely reasonable, but honestly, much of it was pre-rebuttaled in 2B in the OP.

Let us not forget how PHENOMENAL Brett Favre was at his peak, which was a good ten years. Peyton Manning is probably the best quarterback Iíve ever seen, talent-wise. Dan Marino was Next Level amazing.

The right QB isnít enough. You need to construct a great system manned expertly. Brady had spare parts on offense for many years but he also had great defenses.

I think youíre on surer footing when you argue Reid/Veach is a better HC/GM combo than any of the above QBs had, but even then we canít fully vouch for Veach yet. Our sample size with him is two years, and one of those years (2018) was pretty damn bad.
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Old 05-12-2020, 01:59 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
A couple thoughts.

1. I have no problem looking ahead. However, things happen and change every season. So I'm not going to spend much time worrying about things you just can't control.

2. One word you failed to mention: DRAFT. If we continue to draft well and the cap continues to increase we will be fine.

3. I think the Chiefs ability to begin to address the offensive line in the 2020 draft provided some relief in future drafts, making it easier to target LB, WR, TE positions higher in the draft.

4. Veach has done a great job filling holes with cheap quality vets, that will continue.
1. Thatís fine. Different strokes.

2. Let us not forget weíve drafted well exactly one year so far. The 2018 draft was an abomination. 2019 looks pretty great, but letís not pat backs just yet on 2020. Youíre correct, though, because with the cap space weíre NOT going to have in the Mahomes era, nailing the draft is going to be absolutely necessary if we ever want to win another SB.

3. Agreed.

4. This has only been true, really, for one offseason.
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Old 05-12-2020, 02:00 PM   #10
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Also, I think sometimes fans fail to account for change the way coaches do.

Pat may not always have the explosive weapons he does at WR. He might have some dud years at WR. Well, now he's got a Westbrook/Kamara type RB to balance things out. That's certainly going to mean a different look and feel to the offense, but it can still be effective and explosive and win us Super Bowls. The team isn't always going to be built the same, and that's based entirely on what we have available for our personnel.

So just because we lose Watkins and Robinson next year is no reason to panic. Yeah, we should keep drafting and searching for talent at WR, but if we just trust in Reid and this incredible offensive coaching staff, we'll certainly have enough.
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Old 05-12-2020, 02:04 PM   #11
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Fuller and Ogbah? Ragland probably doesn't net you anything; if he would, Remmers would presumably cancel him out.

Yeah - maybe a 4th and a 5th from that pair.

If you get one guy who contributes in a meaningful way by week 10 of his 2nd year, you're doing pretty well with those 2 picks. If Fenton becomes the rule rather than the exception, we'll win the championship 5 times in the next decade - at least.

I just don't think you can go expecting that kind of immediate help from 3rd day picks. And we're talking 2021 specifically here so the comp picks are long-shots at best to help much by then.
It’s about the totality of the picks combined with Veach and our scouting departments ability to find talent. Do I expect it with those picks? No. Would I be shocked if they hit a home run with them? Absolutely not. You also have guys from the last two draft classes who could develop into huge pieces going forward.

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Old 05-12-2020, 02:17 PM   #12
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One thing is clear, this isn’t the Packers or Seahawks. We draft a lot better than those teams do/did and our QB is better too. For however long Reid sticks around our HC is too.

As long as we have the three headed monster of Reid/Veach/Mahomes, we will be fine. Does that mean we will win 5 straight SB’s? No, but we will always be in the mix as long as Mahomes is healthy.

Shit, it’s easy to forget about Spags too, but the longer he sticks around just makes me even more confident.
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Old 05-12-2020, 02:29 PM   #13
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As long as we have Patrick Mahomes + Tyreek Hill + CEH we will be ok.
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Old 05-12-2020, 02:30 PM   #14
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This is all supremely reasonable, but honestly, much of it was pre-rebuttaled in 2B in the OP.

Let us not forget how PHENOMENAL Brett Favre was at his peak, which was a good ten years. Peyton Manning is probably the best quarterback Iíve ever seen, talent-wise. Dan Marino was Next Level amazing.

The right QB isnít enough. You need to construct a great system manned expertly. Brady had spare parts on offense for many years but he also had great defenses.

I think youíre on surer footing when you argue Reid/Veach is a better HC/GM combo than any of the above QBs had, but even then we canít fully vouch for Veach yet. Our sample size with him is two years, and one of those years (2018) was pretty damn bad.
Well, 2B in the OP draws the same comparison, but it's a different point.

You're saying we need to use Green Bay as a cautionary tale, but think about this: They've had two losing seasons since they won the Super Bowl in 2010. They've been to three NFC Championship games (not counting their Super Bowl season) and been a part of some bullshit bad luck games that should have taken them to an NFC Championship game instead of losing in the divisional. There are no Super Bowls in that span, but it's CONSISTENT winning. They've been in contention to go to the Super Bowl each and every year. They've been buying lottery tickets each year, and just a little nudge of luck in any of those seasons is all it would have taken to actually put them over the top.

And that's with them being a cautionary tale about how not to waste the career of a franchise QB. They gave big extensions to their weapons Jordy, Cobb, Jennings (briefly) and paid for the essentials like a premier passrusher (Clay Matthews) and bookend tackles.

With the exception of last year, their defenses are what killed them each and every time. They finally addressed that by spending money on that side of the damn ball.

If ****ing up got them a minimum of 3 conference championship appearances in 10 years with Aaron Rodgers, and we have a GM who DOES spend money on defense, doesn't it seem likely that would be enough to punch through where Green Bay came up short?
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Old 05-12-2020, 02:32 PM   #15
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Young talent that could develop into quality starters:

CEH
Hardman
Gay
Thornhill
Saunders
Niang
Sneed
Rankin

And to a lesser extent:

Fenton
Keyes
Speaks
Danna


Plus another 1,2,3,4,4,5,5,6 next year?

With this core likely still together:

Mahomes
Hill
Kelce
Fisher
Schwartz
Clark
Jones
Mathieu
Ward
Nnadi


It’s not nearly as bad as you are making it seem because it’s still very early in a lot of those guys development or we haven’t seen them at all. At this point, you have to have faith in your coaching staff on both sides of the ball to develop all of that young talent and Veach to continue to fine guys like Breeland, Pennel, Wis, Wilson etc.
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