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Old 11-05-2019, 06:45 AM  
Coogs Coogs is offline
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Homework Assignment on Chiefs Defense over last three weeks.

I do not have time to do this myself, or I would. Could someone compute the stats for just the past three weeks over the entire NFL, and see what the defense would be ranking in the important categories over that three week stretch?

Thanks in advance!
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Old 11-05-2019, 08:34 PM   #31
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The offenses the Chiefs have faced rank second overall according to football outsiders, which DVOA adjusts for. The fact that after the slow start the Chiefs on the season are ranked 11th overall is good enough for me.
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:30 AM   #32
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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Originally Posted by jerryaldini View Post
The offenses the Chiefs have faced rank second overall according to football outsiders, which DVOA adjusts for. The fact that after the slow start the Chiefs on the season are ranked 11th overall is good enough for me.
we had a really tough schedule to start with and are now hitting the 'soft' portion of the season.

We should 'stat up' these next few weeks. Other than NE, we should be in stat pad mode.
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Old 11-06-2019, 12:34 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan View Post
This is a super important stat, I think...just behind the more important plays-from-scrimmage for our defense. People have often said - correctly - that yards coughed up (bending) do not matter nearly as much when you're not giving up the points...or more specifically, touchdowns (don't break). But with such a quick-strike offense, to really build around Pat and his skills, we need a defense that is tailored to get off the field quickly...even if it means giving up big plays, occasionally (which WILL rack up the yards), we can live with that IF we keep the number plays down. Because Pat is going to strike quick again and the defense will need to be right back out on the field and that just increases fatigue and susceptibility to injury.

I'm hoping we're seeing the beginning of Spags figuring out how to achieve this consistently.

And while it's not the biggest priority, I think we really need a grinder running back that can put games away once we achieve the ideal point where time-remaining and point-differential demands a slow-down. This also protects Pat at the end of games from some stupid desperation hits that players might want to take on our Franchise.
Yes! I agree that this team needs more of a boom or bust defense rather than a bend but don't break defense.
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Old 11-06-2019, 06:05 PM   #34
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan View Post
This is a super important stat, I think...just behind the more important plays-from-scrimmage for our defense. People have often said - correctly - that yards coughed up (bending) do not matter nearly as much when you're not giving up the points...or more specifically, touchdowns (don't break). But with such a quick-strike offense, to really build around Pat and his skills, we need a defense that is tailored to get off the field quickly...even if it means giving up big plays, occasionally (which WILL rack up the yards), we can live with that IF we keep the number plays down. Because Pat is going to strike quick again and the defense will need to be right back out on the field and that just increases fatigue and susceptibility to injury.

I'm hoping we're seeing the beginning of Spags figuring out how to achieve this consistently.

And while it's not the biggest priority, I think we really need a grinder running back that can put games away once we achieve the ideal point where time-remaining and point-differential demands a slow-down. This also protects Pat at the end of games from some stupid desperation hits that players might want to take on our Franchise.


good post.

As for a 'grinder', I think Darrel Williams is perfectly suited. Big back, runs hard, physical. That would required Reid to actually run the ball, which he is loathe to do. I love Reid, I think he's maybe the second or third best coach in the NFL, but he does have some tendencies that I find frustrating. 80/20 pass to run balance is one of those things. I am perhaps exaggerating. Maybe not. shrug.

Unlike Uchieffy****ingmoron, I see the causes of why we don't have a back that rushes for 100 yards per game.

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Old 11-06-2019, 06:14 PM   #35
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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good post.

As for a 'grinder', I think Darrel Williams is perfectly suited. Big back, runs hard, physical. That would required Reid to actually run the ball, which he is loathe to do. I love Reid, I think he's maybe the second or third best coach in the NFL, but he does have some tendencies that I find frustrating. 80/20 pass to run balance is one of those things. I am perhaps exaggerating. Maybe not. shrug.

Unlike Uchieffy****ingmoron, I see the causes of why we don't have a back that rushes for 100 yards per game.
For accuracy's sake-

We're a hair under 65% passing ratio for the season. We're 5th in the NFL in that. Who's in front of us? Atlanta, Cinci, NY Giants, Miami.

Eww.

Am I cherrypicking? Well, in the top 14 pass/run ratio teams, only the Rams (9th) and Green Bay (13th) and Chiefs have winning records.

Just saying. We should probably run the ball a little more often.
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:50 PM   #36
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What, what what?
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:20 PM   #37
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Some stuff I pulled from this site:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/

These are from the last 3 games.

NFL Team Opponent Yards per Game – 5th, 295.7 yds
NFL Team Opponent Yards per Play – 2nd, 4.6 yds
NFL Team Opponent Rushing Yards per Game – 10th, 95 yds
NFL Team Opponent Yards per Rush Attempt – 13th, 3.9 yds
NFL Team Opponent Passing Yards per Game – 7th, 200.7 yds
NFL Team Opponent Yards per Pass Attempt – 5th, 5.7 yds
NFL Team Opponent Points per Game – 12th, 20
If that's an indication of things to come then there's no team in the NFL that can hang with us. MVPat with a top 10 D? YES PLEASE
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Old 11-08-2019, 08:39 AM   #38
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Early Down Success Rate is a metric which looks at yards gained on first down and on second down and considers them successful plays if on first down you gain 40% of yards to go and on second down you gain 60% of yards to go. It is a fairly useful predictive tool because obviously if you are gaining yards on first and second, you are left with third and short or are avoiding third down altogether. You are going to score points if this is the case. If you look at it from the defensive side of the ball, EDSR tells you how an opposing offense does on early downs against you. If you can stop teams on first and second down leaving a tougher 3rd down and distance...obviously that creates more chance for success for your defense.

Using this statistic over the last 3 weeks the Chiefs defense ranks 7th in the NFL against the run and 3rd against the pass. Compare this to weeks 1-6 and the Chiefs were 32nd against the run and 23rd against the pass.

None of this happens in a vacuum of course. The Chiefs have done this against the Denver offense (15th most efficient run offense the week we played them, and 5th most efficient pass offense the week we played them), the Green Bay offense (7th run, 21st pass when we played them) and Minnesota offense (14th run, 10th pass when we played them). So it's not as if it was against the Dolphins, Jets, and Redskins.

I find this statistic to be pretty telling because it parses out that 18 yard draw play on 3rd and 20 that boosts your yards per play statistics but really has no meaning toward moving the ball toward a score.

IF you are unfamiliar with Sharp football statistics I suggest you check it out. He has a lot of really great data that you can manipulate and visualize.
https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/home.html
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Old 11-08-2019, 03:49 PM   #39
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Football is the most beautiful sport there is, in part because of how complex it is. Every play contains dozens of small stories, and it’s impossible to follow them all during a broadcast viewing. So every week at The Athletic, I’ll break down the big finds I see on film from each game and some tidbits that might have been missed.

Vikings running back Dalvin Cook was going to destroy the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense.

It was as sure as death, taxes and me using the phrase “the reality is” at some point during this article. That was the narrative going into Sunday’s game. Between the Chiefs’ run D being considered one of the worst in the league and the Packers’ running backs shredding Kansas City in the passing game last week, Cook having a huge game seemed a foregone conclusion.

Instead, Cook was held to a relatively quiet 71 rushing yards on 21 carries, a mere 3.4 yards per carry. He added 45 receiving yards, but was mostly a non-factor as a Vikings offense that had been red-hot struggled to move the ball most of the day.

So how did the Chiefs contain an offense that was expected to march up and down the field? For starters, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo made a few adjustments up front and in coverage that Minnesota wasn’t prepared for. First, he accounted for the issues Kansas City had with running backs lining up wide last week.

With the Chiefs running a number of pure man-to-man looks in recent weeks, they were forced to send linebackers to the boundary when teams lined up running backs wide as receivers. This week, Spagnuolo adjusted by having the defense audible coverage any time a back is split wide. This involved splitting the cornerbacks out wide with the backs and having either the safeties roll down to play man coverage — which happens in the above play — or using linebackers in shallow zone. Which look they decided to use depended on whether receivers or tight ends were in the slot.

This is a minor adjustment, but it’s indicative of how Spagnuolo has coached this season. Any time the Chiefs have shown a weakness on defense, he has adjusted in the following weeks with schematic or personnel changes.

Altering the coverage wasn’t the only shift Spagnuolo made in the defensive game plan this week. He also shifted returning defensive lineman Chris Jones to the edge on the majority of snaps in which the running game threatened the Chiefs, allowing them to be bigger and stronger on the edge.

With starting defensive ends Frank Clark and Alex Okafor out, the Chiefs could have been in real trouble along the edges even with backups Emmanuel Ogbah and Tanoh Kpassagnon playing well. Spagnuolo prevented this by shuffling formations and personnel, at times utilizing a hybrid 3-4 look that allowed him to place Jones at various places while keeping big bodies all along the line. He also lined up Kpassagnon inside on obvious passing downs to allow Jones to rush from unexpected places. All the shuffling seemed to confuse the Vikings offense, and the Chiefs spent much of the day hassling quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Still another adjustment Spagnuolo hast made over the past two weeks was to the overall pass rush game plan. Spagnuolo unleashed “blitzapalooza” to try and dial up the pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This week, with Jones returning, Spagnuolo opted for a more conservative approach and often dropped seven defenders in coverage while counting on Jones and the other rushers to get pressure. He sent pressure from various angles, but was much less reliant on the blitz than previous weeks. This was another apparent surprise to the Vikings, who appeared to have game-planned for blitz packages.

Spagnuolo has altered his approach repeatedly over the course of the young season. He has shuffled personnel, altered his looks up front from game to game, changed how often and in what way the team blitzes, and even tinkered with the looks on the back end in order to give his players the best chance at success. Every time it seems to be in order to address an apparent weakness, and it generally has been successful. The Chiefs are quietly the 11th-ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, 4th against the pass. As our new columnist Josh Brisco, wrote Tuesday, the defense that needed to merely stop being a weakness could turn into a strength before it’s all said and done.

Ward continues to develop

Charvarius Ward had another strong game against the Vikings despite facing some difficult matchups. The second-year cornerback continues to look athletic and physical as he follows receivers through their routes.

This play resulted in a sack for Jones, in part due to the solid coverage by Ward. He’s able to get his hands on the receiver early and rides his hip throughout the route, allowing him to sense any stops/starts and move with the receiver. Ward is at his best in man coverage when he’s able to either catch the receiver or press him at the line of scrimmage. He’ll then use his length to harass the receiver into a sloppy route while maintaining contact to feel where the breaks are coming.

I charted every coverage snap from Ward against Minnesota, and the results were even more impressive than they appeared during the broadcast.

The major difference between Ward’s numbers here and what he has shown previously as a Chief is the low fail percentage. While single games are subject to significant variation at the cornerback position, Ward’s numbers against the Vikings were elite. Generally speaking, I expect starting-caliber cornerbacks to fail between 15 and 20 percent of the time, particularly against good competition. Ward’s athleticism and length help him keep up in man coverage, where he rarely loses.

Ward’s biggest strides, at least based on his tape against the Vikings, are as a zone defender. In previous games, Ward had multiple blown coverages when asked to play as a zone defender. He had a bad habit of following receivers outside his area and developing tunnel vision on a specific player. This led to other receivers running wide open through his zone. I didn’t see a single play like that against Minnesota, as Ward stayed in his spot and kept his eyes on the quarterback rather than focusing on the route runners.

As I’ve written previously, it’s difficult to project the cornerback position. Nothing is more volatile in the NFL than that position, so until there’s a larger sample size, it’s impossible to project how Ward will do in the future. However, he has picked up where he left off last season and seems to have even improved, which has allowed Spagnuolo to leave him on an island against most receivers and trust that he’ll get the job done.

Run defense dominates

It feels strange to have a subhead involving the run defense that uses the word “dominates,” but that’s where we are in Kansas City. Against one of the best running backs in the NFL, the Chiefs’ run D controlled the action the vast majority of the game, holding Cook to short gains almost every time he touched the ball.

There isn’t any one factor that has turned the Chiefs’ fortunes against the run around; rather, it has been multiple fixes from both a schematic and a personnel standpoint. A logical place to start is the recently dominant play of Derrick Nnadi.

Nnadi’s blocker tries to drive him to the side on this play, but Nnadi prevents himself from being directed by shoving the blocker backward. This allows him to flash his helmet into one gap and force Cook to cut back. The blocker tries to shift to a cut block to at least slow Nnadi down, but because Nnadi has maintained control and kept the blocker at arm’s length he’s able to stay clear of the attempted cut and meet Cook in at the line of scrimmage.

It’s also worth noting that while Nnadi made a strong singular effort on this play, the rest of the defense did its job as well. Damien Wilson beats a blocker to help with the stuff, Kpassagnon maintains edge discipline and helps once Cook commits inside, and Anthony Hitchens avoids another blocker in space and flies in to help with the tackle. That sort of swarming is something the Chiefs haven’t done well in years.

The Chiefs have also benefited in recent weeks from improved play by rookie Khalen Saunders, and received another boost in the addition of veteran nose tackle Mike Pennel on Sunday. A large presence at over 330 pounds, Pennel proved tough to move and very capable of tracking the ball carrier as he engaged blockers.

Here, Pennel doesn’t allow himself to be moved backward and guides the lineman toward the direction the running back is going. He controls the action and is able to flash his helmet inside to discourage Cook from cutting back on the play. This leads to Cook moving into the gap between the left tackle and left guard, which is controlled by Jones (again playing strong at the edge) and filled quickly by Hitchens coming from the second level.

Pennel’s strength and awareness at the point of attack flashed multiple times in the game, and while he didn’t record many stats, his ability to redirect runners was crucial in limited snaps. In the meantime, Saunders continued to flash improvement and increased veteran savvy in keeping blockers off him as he pursues runners.

Here, both Nnadi and Saunders win their assignments, but in different ways. Nnadi controls his blocker with strength and moves the action far enough into the backfield to discourage a cut outside by Cook. He then tosses the blocker when Cook moves inside to make the tackle. In the meantime, Saunders uses his unusual athleticism to avoid a cut block from his blocker and helps out on the play.

The Chiefs were winning across the board against the run consistently; more importantly, they were disciplined in their assignments. That combination generally left Cook with nowhere to go.

This is a good example of players doing their job at all levels. Jones holds up a pair of blockers along the edge in what is the most noticeable singular effort. Ragland uses that help to get to the outside and doesn’t try to do too much, instead simply containing the outside and forcing Cook to cut back.

In the meantime, Saunders and Joey Ivie do a nice job stringing along the line and waiting for a potential cutback. They don’t overpursue even though they have good control of their blockers. Hitchens wins against his blocker on the second level and closes as well, and the result is another group effort of converging on Cook before he can get anywhere.

The Chiefs’ discipline against the run even paid dividends on plays that ended badly, such as one of Cook’s biggest plays of the game.

In a rare misstep for the defense, Ogbah fails to contain the edge on this play and gives Cook a lane to the outside. The failure could potentially be on Ragland, who pursues the run inside and doesn’t crash the edge (the assumption is that was Ogbah’s assignment based on how Ragland moved, but without being in the huddle it’s impossible to say). Cook sees it and takes advantage, getting into the open field.

This is where Kansas City’s newfound defensive discipline pays off. Both safety Juan Thornhill and cornerback Bashaud Breeland see what is unfolding and play it smart. Rather than sprinting in, both players play it safe and contain Cook to force him to make the first move. Thornhill smartly stays back and forces the free blocker to come to him, and when Cook has no choice but to move straight ahead, Breeland is able to close. in the meantime, the rest of the defense has recovered and assists in the tackle.

Keeping bad plays from becoming devastating plays is just as important as preventing bad plays at all at the NFL level. Given the skill level of offenses, bad plays are inevitable. But the Chiefs kept those plays from getting any worse by consistently doing their job and playing smart. Spagnuolo and the defensive staff deserve a great deal of credit for that in addition to all the adjustments we’ve seen over the course of the season.

Kpassagnon is turning heads

Tanoh Kpassagnon has long been one of the more interesting players on the Chiefs’ roster. An intimidating presence at 6-foot-7 and a shredded 290 pounds, he often has flashed in limited action but has not lived up to his second-round draft status. This season, playing a new role on both the edge and inside, Kpassagnon is beginning to flourish.

On this 3rd-and-10 play, Spagnuolo lines up Kpassagnon as a nose tackle. Thanks to his strength and length, Kpassagnon is able to quickly move the center backward into Cousins’ lap and forces an errant throw down the field.

Kpassagnon lined up inside multiple times against the Vikings and was often able to generate pressure. He was either strong enough to move an individual blocker or fast enough to get to half a man and drag a potential blocker toward the quarterback.

Here, a tight end is attempting to block Kpassagnon alone, and the big defensive end is able to get an edge inside. Once he has that spot, the tight end can’t stop him, and help from the inside isn’t enough, due to Kpassagnon’s strength. It was another situation in which a poor throw was forced, but it doesn’t show up in the stats sheet.

Charting Kpassagnon’s snaps, he was consistent throughout the day.

While Kpassagnon wasn’t dominant from a win percentage standpoint, he didn’t lose at all against the run and was able to hold his own as a pass rusher. His pressure on Cousins played a big part in the Chiefs’ win, and his ability to close quickly resulted in throws that were hurried or thrown away. It’s also worth noting that in the absence of Clark or Okafor, Kpassagnon started to draw some attention in the form of chips from the Vikings.

Kpassagnon is still a work in progress as a refined rusher, as he still mostly relies on his impressive strength/length/athleticism combination to win the day. When blockers are able to keep him in front of them, he doesn’t have a plan to get free.

Against aggressive sets, Kpassagnon often loses, as he doesn’t appear ready to deal with the hand-fighting or finesse moves required to make defenders pay for lunging his direction. Until he improves in that area, he’ll continue to be a solid situational rusher but likely will be inconsistent, particularly against top competition. However, his hands have become much more active in those situations than they used to be, which is a sign that the coaches are working with him on how to dislodge himself once engaged.

Tyreek shows once again he’s more than just speed

Hill is without question the fastest player in the NFL. Against the Vikings, though, he reminded defenses that he offers considerably more than that and has developed into an excellent all-around receiver. A pair of back-to-back plays in the fourth quarter demonstrated the ways he now hurts defenses without even utilizing his top gear.

This play came on a crucial 3rd-and-7 in the fourth quarter with 5:38 remaining on the clock. The Chiefs trailed by 3 and needed a first down to keep the game from falling solely into the hands of the defense. The Vikings smartly choose to bracket Hill on the play with a deep safety and are obviously terrified he’ll escape over the top. Hill takes advantage of that fear and runs a multiple-move route that fakes an out-and-up (into a post). Once the cornerback commits to playing that route physically and the safety turns his hips to protect the deep portion of the field, Hill uses his strength and change-of-direction skills to create separation. He then makes a good adjustment to a low throw and the Chiefs drive continues.

The very next play, Hill again beat the Vikings, this time with his ball skills.

The Vikings have good coverage on this play, but it demonstrates the impossibility of covering Hill effectively. The cornerback is forced to turn and sprint to have any hope of keeping up with Hill down the field. This allows Hill to look for the ball first and know that he’ll have a good chance at making a play on it, as the cornerback can’t both sprint near top speed and turn around.

Hill stumbles initially but still eats up the space between himself and the corner. Once he locates the ball, he sees that it’s thrown short and he’ll need to adjust, which he does perfectly while the corner scrambles. He positions his body in a spot that prevents the corner from making a play on the ball and makes the play, which puts the Chiefs in field-goal range.

This play is demonstrative of what is important in contested catch situations: ball skills and body control. Hill is one of the shortest wide receivers in the league, but he’s excellent in these situations because of his ability to know where the ball is coming to the ground and put himself in the exact right spot to collect it. His strength also allows him to box out defenders despite his stature.

Hill is much more than just speed at this point, he’s one of the best wide receivers in the league.

Moore does enough on a tough day

Matt Moore once again performed admirably filling in for the NFL’s best player. He generally got the ball where it needed to be and even threw the ball well under pressure against a Vikings D that has played quarterbacks tough all season. He also did a good job giving playmakers a chance at getting the ball even against good coverage.

Moore wasn’t perfect, as his pocket presence issues from years past became apparent on plays the Vikings were able to get home before the play could develop. Moore’s inability to escape pressure cost the Chiefs on several drives, and he nearly fumbled away the game on just such a snap on the final drive of the game. Fortunately, running back Damien Williams scooped up the ball and the Chiefs were able to avoid catastrophe.

Moore also made a crucial adjustment on one of the most important plays of the game. Facing 3rd-and-4 with 24 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs had the ball on Minnesota’s 39-yard-line. They weren’t quite out of field-goal range, but Harrison Butker would have needed to kick a 56-yard field goal from that distance. Gaining a few extra yards was important, and losing none was vital.

The Vikings had aggressively blitzed along the interior in these situations throughout the game and even earlier on that drive, and Moore made a great veteran play prior to the snap after seeing that same action coming. Watch Moore and then Hill prior to the snap.

Moore alerts Hill and the other receivers at the snap, knowing the Vikings are going to send the house. When they do, it creates a void right behind the blitzers and Hill goes to that exact spot. Moore throws it over the top of the pressure, and Hill not only gains the yardage needed for a first down, but a bunch more.

Moore’s veteran savvy played a huge role in this play being successful, and his contributions to the Chiefs being 2-1 without Mahomes (counting the Denver game, in which Mahomes sustained his injury) shouldn’t be forgotten regardless of whether Mahomes is able to return this week.
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