Royals 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread - Page 499

duncan_idaho · 10:01 AM

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Deberg_1990 · 07-24-2013, 12:06 AM

It's amazing to me that any team would want Hoch for any sort of stretch run. Heh, your just asking for that to end in heartache.

**HemiEd** · 07-24-2013, 04:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

It's amazing to me that any team would want Hoch for any sort of stretch run. Heh, your just asking for that to end in heartache.

ssshhhhhussh you

Fansy the Famous Bard · 07-24-2013, 05:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HemiEd

ssshhhhhussh you

First rule of "screwing the other team" club - don't talk about "screwing the other team" club.

BlackHelicopters · 07-24-2013, 05:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

Luke Hochevar - R - Royals

FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox have been scouting Luke Hochevar.
He notes that the Sox "have not engaged in trade discussions with the Royals" at this point. Still, it's not a surprise that they're interest, as Boston is on the lookout for relief help and Hochevar has thrived in a bullpen role, posting a 2.00 ERA and 38/10 K/BB ratio over 36 frames. He's making $4.65 million this season before hitting free agency this winter.
Related: Red Sox
Source: FOXSports.com
Jul 23 - 7:21 PM

If Hoch leaves, and with Francoeur gone, that leaves only Getz to suck GMDM off.

-King- · 07-24-2013, 05:55 AM

Santana apparently wants to re-sign but hasn't been approached by the team about it.
Posted via Mobile Device

BlackHelicopters · 07-24-2013, 05:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King-

Santana apparently wants to re-sign but hasn't been approached by the team about it.
Posted via Mobile Device

Interesting

Nightfyre · 07-24-2013, 06:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King-

Santana apparently wants to re-sign but hasn't been approached by the team about it.
Posted via Mobile Device

Santana is the kind of risk the Royals can't really afford to take. He's an on again/off again type pitcher who will be making probably somewhere around 15 per year.

duncan_idaho · 07-24-2013, 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

It's amazing to me that any team would want Hoch for any sort of stretch run. Heh, your just asking for that to end in heartache.

But look at his stuff! He's got it all! He peripherals are great, and his K:BB has been awesome out of the pen!

"Yes, Ben Cherington. Yes. He is great. We hate to give him up, but you may take him."

Santana and Hochevar to Boston for, say, Allen Webster, Jackie Bradley would be pretty sweet.

**DeezNutz** · 07-24-2013, 07:07 AM

It's ironic that we have Hoch's twin in the rotation right now, so we won't miss a beat when Davies is moved to the pen.

duncan_idaho · 07-24-2013, 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Santana is the kind of risk the Royals can't really afford to take. He's an on again/off again type pitcher who will be making probably somewhere around 15 per year.

----^ This.

I like Santana a lot, and he seems to genuinely like KC. But his jekyll-hyde nature makes him too big a risk for KC.

Who knows, though. They resigned Guthrie after last season because they were trying to compete. Maybe the same thing happens with Santana. I'd rather see them sell high with him at the trade deadline, but we'll see.

Nightfyre · 07-24-2013, 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

But look at his stuff! He's got it all! He peripherals are great, and his K:BB has been awesome out of the pen!

"Yes, Ben Cherington. Yes. He is great. We hate to give him up, but you may take him."

Santana and Hochevar to Boston for, say, Allen Webster, Jackie Bradley would be pretty sweet.

Yes.... yes....

BigCatDaddy · 07-24-2013, 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

It's ironic that we have Hoch's twin in the rotation right now, so we won't miss a beat when Davies is moved to the pen.

Was he used in high level situations in TB or like we have to use Hoch now?

siberian khatru · 07-24-2013, 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

----^ This.

I like Santana a lot, and he seems to genuinely like KC. But his jekyll-hyde nature makes him too big a risk for KC.

Who knows, though. They resigned Guthrie after last season because they were trying to compete. Maybe the same thing happens with Santana. I'd rather see them sell high with him at the trade deadline, but we'll see.

We can always trade him ... and then re-sign him in the winter.

duncan_idaho · 07-24-2013, 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Was he used in high level situations in TB or like we have to use Hoch now?

Looking at some advanced stats, a few things pop out....

1) According to Fangraphs, Davis threw his slider 10.9 percent of the time last year, and it was a positive value pitch - about 5 runs above average. He has thrown it zero percent of the time this year.

2) Instead, Davis has picked up a cutter that he didn't throw at ALL in Tampa. that has been a completely dogshit pitch. He is nearly 7 runs below average with that pitch this season while throwing it 22 percent of the time. His fastball is also 8 runs below average. Would suspect those two things are related.

What's terrifying? Neither one is as bad as LUke Hochevar's fastball last year, which was 17.5 runs below average.

3) Davis had slightly negative value in high leverage situations (-0.42) according to Fangraphs, which means he was 0.42 percent worse in those spots than if he had been in a non-clutch situation.

4) Looking at Baseball Ref's advanced reliever stats... Davis appeared 54 times in 2012 for Tampa, and 13 of those were "High Leverage" situations. 10 were "Medium." The rest were "Low" or clean innings.

5) Davis blew just one "save" in 2012 and picked up 6 holds. He entered in 9 save situations. Not sure what happened the other two times.

6) Only 5 of 20 inherited runners scored for Davis, so he did a pretty good job there. 25 percent is a strong score.

7) To show, once again, how stupid fWAR for pitchers is... Davis has a 1.1 fWAR score, which is flat-out stupid. bWAR has him at -2.0, which seems about right for the worst starter in major league baseball this year.

Cephalic Trauma · 07-24-2013, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop

If Hoch leaves, and with Francoeur gone, that leaves only Getz to suck GMDM off.

And that little twerp can only take so much semen.

12-11-2012, 09:59 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1840308	2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it? Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
Posts: 21,051

07-24-2013, 12:06 AM	#7471
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $3914454	It's amazing to me that any team would want Hoch for any sort of stretch run. Heh, your just asking for that to end in heartache. __________________ Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning: Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down. One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
Posts: 66,914

07-24-2013, 05:55 AM	#7475
-King- ▓▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▓▓ Join Date: Jan 2009 Casino cash: $2575743	Santana apparently wants to re-sign but hasn't been approached by the team about it. Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 63,865