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Old 06-27-2016, 11:23 AM  
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Personal finance and investing megathread extravaganza

I know lewdog (and maybe others) have mentioned the desire to have a place to chat about personal finance stuff. We'll see if there's enough interest to keep this going in the long-term, but at least for now, here's a place to chat about whatever personal finance topics come up.



If you're just getting started thinking about saving and don't know where to begin, this flow chart can help. Ask for advice in the thread for more help!

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Old 08-14-2019, 10:28 AM   #3136
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Dow down 666 right now
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:04 AM   #3137
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Dow down 666 right now
Now at -740

Every single stock on the Dow is down led by the big banks JPM , GS over 4%
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:17 AM   #3138
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:27 AM   #3139
petegz28 petegz28 is online now
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We have more downside to go but I am buying lightly on the way down.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:10 PM   #3140
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We have more downside to go but I am buying lightly on the way down.
Will it be a volatile down swing (you think) or swift and steady?
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:27 PM   #3141
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Will it be a volatile down swing (you think) or swift and steady?
All downswings are volatile. Think of tearing down a house. You don't do it brick by brick. My target on the downside at the moment is between 2730 -2790 on the SP500.

If you ever look at a downturn in the market look at a chart of the VIX. You will quickly see that increased volatility and down markets go hand in hand.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:31 PM   #3142
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:39 PM   #3143
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Heard a great analysis today on CNBC by a Treasury trader who said this entire inversion crap goes back on the shoulders of the Fed and their aggressive rate hiking last year. Now they actually need to start dumping their $2.4t worth of 10 years and cut rates to get the curve back to normal.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 08-14-2019, 05:15 PM   #3144
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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I like this guy . I've watched several of his videos and i have to say I agree with 99% of what he says. Maybe that's why I like him.

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Old 08-14-2019, 05:37 PM   #3145
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Heard a great analysis today on CNBC by a Treasury trader who said this entire inversion crap goes back on the shoulders of the Fed and their aggressive rate hiking last year. Now they actually need to start dumping their $2.4t worth of 10 years and cut rates to get the curve back to normal.
Sorry, but thatís an entirely ridiculous analysis.

Term premium - or the amount investors are compensated for investing in longer maturity interest rates - is low. A portion of that is a function of the Fedís large holdings of Treasury securities. But a larger portion is the fact that 30y German bonds are yielding -0.20% (exerting a global pull lower in yield) and a portion is a function of lower inflation expectations than weíve faced in many, many decades. So itís a lot easier

Youíll hear a lot about how the inverted yield curve is an indicator of a coming recession. And while that may be true, there are lots and lots of reasons why it could easily be giving a false positive in this environment given the much reduced term premium mentioned above (ie, inversion has a much lower bar) and a sort of self-fulfilling quality to it all as the Treasury rally tends to accelerate when it inverts because of its alleged meaning. Iíd also mention that liquidity - that is, the ease with which one buys and sells - in Treasuries is abysmal right now (JPM released a paper today mentioning that it declined by a factor of 3 this month), and August is seasonally a month very favorable to a flattening of the yield curve.

In any case, if the Fed actually started selling Treasury securities as per the trader you saw on CNBC (I wanna LOL at that), equities would be down 10% tomorrow.

The Fed hasnít been the problem here, no matter what Trump tells you.
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:30 PM   #3146
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You **** off...the vast majority of traders use an SMA, tard ****er.
Now you tell me!!!

Thanks a lot asshole!
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:47 PM   #3147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief View Post
Sorry, but thatís an entirely ridiculous analysis.

Term premium - or the amount investors are compensated for investing in longer maturity interest rates - is low. A portion of that is a function of the Fedís large holdings of Treasury securities. But a larger portion is the fact that 30y German bonds are yielding -0.20% (exerting a global pull lower in yield) and a portion is a function of lower inflation expectations than weíve faced in many, many decades. So itís a lot easier

Youíll hear a lot about how the inverted yield curve is an indicator of a coming recession. And while that may be true, there are lots and lots of reasons why it could easily be giving a false positive in this environment given the much reduced term premium mentioned above (ie, inversion has a much lower bar) and a sort of self-fulfilling quality to it all as the Treasury rally tends to accelerate when it inverts because of its alleged meaning. Iíd also mention that liquidity - that is, the ease with which one buys and sells - in Treasuries is abysmal right now (JPM released a paper today mentioning that it declined by a factor of 3 this month), and August is seasonally a month very favorable to a flattening of the yield curve.

In any case, if the Fed actually started selling Treasury securities as per the trader you saw on CNBC (I wanna LOL at that), equities would be down 10% tomorrow.

The Fed hasnít been the problem here, no matter what Trump tells you.
First of all this has nothing to do with Trump so talk about idiotic analysis, you just said the most idiotic thing I've heard in a while. Secondly I don't disagree with anything you said save the part of excusing the Fed. Thirdly I agree that if the Fed started selling it would put pressure on equities but that was not the point this person was making. A Fed cut and a dump of 10 years would in fact right the curve. The fact it would impact equities negatively however is expected. You can LOL all you want but newsflash, just because you are in the business doesn't mean you are the only one in the business.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:48 PM   #3148
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Now you tell me!!!

Thanks a lot asshole!
Meh, keep using your EMAs of they work for you. But I am just saying when you hear the talking heads spattering about averages they are using SMAs.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 08-14-2019, 08:01 PM   #3149
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First of all this has nothing to do with Trump so talk about idiotic analysis, you just said the most idiotic thing I've heard in a while. Secondly I don't disagree with anything you said save the part of excusing the Fed. Thirdly I agree that if the Fed started selling it would put pressure on equities but that was not the point this person was making. A Fed cut and a dump of 10 years would in fact right the curve. The fact it would impact equities negatively however is expected. You can LOL all you want but newsflash, just because you are in the business doesn't mean you are the only one in the business.
If you think the inverted yield curve has nothing to do with Trump, you donít know as much as you think you do about markets.

And further, whatís so great about an analysis (your words) that speak to actions the Fed can take to force the yield curve steeper that would actually increase the odds of a recession? The whole issue of an inverted yield curve is what people think it represents given that historically it often - but not always - presaged recession. If the Fed decided to torque the yield curve by itself, youíd just lose the signal while doing nothing to treat the disease. Correlation <> causation.
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Old 08-14-2019, 08:08 PM   #3150
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If you think the inverted yield curve has nothing to do with Trump, you don’t know as much as you think you do about markets.

And further, what’s so great about an analysis (your words) that speak to actions the Fed can take to force the yield curve steeper that would actually increase the odds of a recession? The whole issue of an inverted yield curve is what people think it represents given that historically it often - but not always - presaged recession. If the Fed decided to torque the yield curve by itself, you’d just lose the signal while doing nothing to treat the disease. Correlation <> causation.
You've said a lot of nothing. How has Trump inverted the yield curve? I have not heard one person claim that so you have the stage.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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