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Old 12-17-2018, 03:11 PM  
gblowfish gblowfish is offline
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Outlook for 2019 Royals

My old pal Steve in Chicago is a big baseball fantasy geek, and is a lifelong Cubs fan. He's sort of adopted the Royals as his AL team, because he despises the White Sox, and he sees the Royals on Chicago TV every time we play them.

He follows a Baseball Fantasy Guru guy named Joe Sheehan. This was published today on his evaluation of the Royals going into 2019:

The Royals have moved into the ionization blackout period, during which they will attempt to build a good team from the ground up in near-total anonymity, probably losing at least 90 games in both 2019 and 2020. The first season after their championship window closed was ugly, as the team slipped to 58-104 on the field and saw all of its attendance gains from the 2015 title disappear.

That Was Fast

2013 1.75M
2014 1.96M
2015 2.71M
2016 2.56M
2017 2.22M
2018 1.67M

People in the area are still watching the games on television, which bodes well for the team’s ability to keep their coffers filled with a new local-TV deal, hopefully upgrading from what Sam Mellinger described as “widely believed to be one of the worst for a team in major professional sports.” Kansas City is ranked #32 in market size, making the Royals a legitimate small-market team. Their regional appeal was helped by the championship, but they remain behind the Cardinals and even the Cubs for popularity through the Midwest.

I’ve been hard on the Royals over the years, turned off by the way an oligarch who competed viciously to turn Wal-Mart into a global behemoth, bankrupting smaller competitors along the way, became the worst sort of welfare queen when it came to baseball. I remain insistent that David Glass and his ilk should have their significant personal fortunes, the prestige value of owning a baseball team, the subsidies paid by the cities and states in which they play, and the inevitable rise in franchise value all be part of any conversation about what they can “afford.”

With that said, there are real small-market teams in MLB, and the chart above shows that those fans are as fickle as any others. The additional ticket sales created by the Royals’ championship run took just three years to wash out, and they won’t return until the team is good again. For now, the Royals will live off their cut of the considerable baseball revenues generated by their partners until they can get the locals excited again.

In having these conversations over the years, I’ve come across the idea that rooting for a small-market team is somehow more pure than rooting for the Yankees or Dodgers or Cubs. The truth is, fans are pretty much the same everywhere. There’s a core who will be with a team thick and thin, and then a much larger group you can reach if you do well on the field. Both groups are larger in bigger cities, but the idea that fans of the Royals or Brewers or whomever are entitled to seeing their teams subsidized by the league because they’re somehow better fans is belied by the chart above.

Maybe, three years past Eric Hosmer’s dash to the plate, a lot of kids are being Raised Royal, but their moms and dads spent the summer Supporting Sporting.

The fans who do show up at Kauffman Stadium next year are unlikely to see a winning team, but the signing of Billy Hamilton will make it a touch easier to watch. Hamilton has been overmatched at the plate in MLB, with a .299 OBP over his five-year career that has been unchanged the past two seasons. Once he drops the bat, however, Hamilton is still as watchable a player as there is in baseball. He’s still one of the fastest men in the game, a plus defensive center fielder and exciting basestealer.

I want baseball to be a game where the likes of Hamilton can be stars, not because of any inherent value to the type, but because baseball is better when a variety of player and team archetypes can lead to success. For most of its history, and surely during the time I came to love it, baseball was a game where both strength and speed were rewarded.

One of the most visible ways in which power pitching has changed the game is that it has overpowered the Hamilton class. There’s a high minimum strength standard now, and if you don’t reach it, you can’t play. Billy Hamilton doesn’t have a career .245 batting average because he’s obstinate but, rather, because you can’t beat modern pitching by “just slapping the ball and running.” The game that Willie Wilson could play 40 years ago, that Otis Nixon could play 30 years ago, that Ichiro Suzuki and Juan Pierre could play even a decade ago, is gone. (The Larry Bowa/Freddy Galvis comparison within this piece also makes the point.)

Billy Hamilton’s career is just another thing we’ve lost to pitchers becoming witches. Everything comes back to velocity. Everything.

Anyway, Hamilton adds to the Royals’ collection of very good basestealers. The Royals will lead the AL in steals next year, and there’s some chance they’ll have the three highest individual totals in the league with Hamilton, Whit Merrifield, and Adalberto Mondesi. They won’t win, but they’ll be entertaining.

2B-R Merrifield
SS-B Mondesi
LF-L Gordon
DH-R Soler
1B-L O’Hearn
C-R Perez
RF-L Phillips
3B-R Dozier
CF-B Hamilton

The Central teams generally get short shrift in my baseball watching not out of bias, but game times. Bad teams get short shrift for what should be obvious reasons. So the 2019 Royals project to be down on the list of teams I see, and yet...I’m kind of interested? What if a team just decided to try to steal 300 bases? This group probably can’t get enough baserunners to pull that off, but it would at least be a hook, like Savannah State going Loyola Marymount-on-uppers in its final year in Division I.

If Brett Phillips plays, which isn’t a certainty, this is one of the best defensive outfields in baseball, too.

Bench-R Cuthbert (IF)
Bench-R Owings (UT)
Bench-B Herrera (OF)
Bench-R Gallagher (C)

There was a time when Chris Owings was one of the fastest players in baseball, too, so sure, let’s just collect them all.

SP-R Keller
SP-L Duffy
SP-R Kennedy
SP-R Junis
SP-R Lopez

As with the lineup, this isn’t an unattractive rotation, even if Brad Keller is due for some significant sophomore year regression. Danny Duffy’s window for stardom has closed; he’s 30 and has never reached 30 starts or 180 innings in a season, and the stuff that made him a constant target for trade rumors has taken a step backwards. The Royals need to treat him the way the Rays treated Nathan Eovaldi, trying to turn any stretch of health and effectiveness into a trade.

The Royals have very little behind this group, and no reason to invest in making their backup rotation much better.

RP-R W. Peralta
RP-R McCarthy
RP-L Hill
RP-L Flynn
RP-R McWilliams
RP-R Fillmyer
RP-L Skoglund

The Royals took Rays righty Sam McWilliams with the second pick in the Rule 5 draft. After the success they had with Keller, a Rule 5 pick in 2017, the Royals have every reason to go back to the well. I’ve listed him in the bullpen, where Keller started last season, but he’s been a starter throughout his five-year pro career. Add Chris Ellis, the seventh pick in the Rule 5 draft, to this mix as well -- the Royals traded for him from the Rangers after the draft.

Last year, the Reds were my pick for the game’s most watchable bad team. The Reds should be better this year, but even if they’re not, the Royals will take away their title. With the speed and defense on the field, with interesting pitchers like Jake Junis and Jorge Lopez, the Royals are a notch above the truly dreadful teams, even if their record may not reflect it.
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Old 12-27-2018, 12:48 PM   #46
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I think that is because of the mlb rule change for Latin America and the cap imposed.

So dumb too, MLB uncapped, Latin America capped so the royals quit leading in spending.
Well, they did spend quite a bit a few years ago when they blew their load on Seuly Matias and went over the limit. They were restricted on their spending the past 2 years and finally had their full allotment to spend this year but stit came away with very little, relatively speaking. I also don't think Moore has been able to cope with the restrictions on draft spending, as signing high schoolers to big bonuses as an incentive to forgo college was our only advantage. Without that we've been pretty bad in the draft. I don't see us with a farm system anytime soon that is comparable to the amazing group we had in the late 2000s.
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Good article. Just as I suspected everything is Smitty's fault. Hope he burns in hell for all of eternity.
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Old 12-27-2018, 01:19 PM   #47
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Well, they did spend quite a bit a few years ago when they blew their load on Seuly Matias and went over the limit. They were restricted on their spending the past 2 years and finally had their full allotment to spend this year but stit came away with very little, relatively speaking. I also don't think Moore has been able to cope with the restrictions on draft spending, as signing high schoolers to big bonuses as an incentive to forgo college was our only advantage. Without that we've been pretty bad in the draft. I don't see us with a farm system anytime soon that is comparable to the amazing group we had in the late 2000s.
That group was considered maybe the greatest farm system of all time. Even if they rebuild it up it's probably not going to be comparable to that. Same thing we used to say when we had three closers in the bullpen with 95+ heat and 1 ERAs. Hope you enjoyed it because that's probably not happening again.
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Old 12-27-2018, 02:23 PM   #48
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The biggest problem is they still have very little talent in the minors, relatively speaking. Outside of Mondesi they've found pretty much nothing in the international market in forever and they refuse to make big trades to restock the minors. They pretty much have to nail the draft every single year to have a chance at competing.

I would disagree with finding nothing... though it’s debatable whether they have found enough.

In addition to Seuly Matias, the Royals have added Carlos Hernandez, Yefri Del Rosario (who was part of this year’s class pool though signed last fall), and a few others. There was kid flashing at the Dominican complex whose name escapes me right now, but was impressive as an under-radar guy. Can’t remember right now.

What hurts is missing big on big expenditures like Elier Hernandez, Marten Gasparini, and Jeison Guzman. But those are the risks with playing in a market where you primarily are signing 16-year olds.

I think saying they refuse to make big trades is just inaccurate. They have to get the return they want to make a big trade, and they just haven’t been in that mode with highly valuable chips.

If you look at the returns for one-year rentals and/or at what the Tigers got mid season for JD Martinez, there’s not any “re-stocking” talent coming back in those types of moves.

None of the guys the Tigers got for Martinez is even top 10 in their middle-of-the-pack system. The Royals got better players in comp picks for Hosmer and Cain than they would have returned for half-year rentals and likely even for full-year rentals.

Merrifield is the first valuable movable piece they’ve had since the contention window closed. He’s so cheap and has so much control, they can and should sit until they get a return that’s worth Green-lighting, and that includes a top 25-50 prospect as the headline backed by a 50-100 guy and a few lotto tickets (Adam Eaton return).

It’s easy to say “trade a guy” but the match has to be there with a team willing to pay an appropriate price.
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Old 12-27-2018, 03:03 PM   #49
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I would disagree with finding nothing... though it’s debatable whether they have found enough.

In addition to Seuly Matias, the Royals have added Carlos Hernandez, Yefri Del Rosario (who was part of this year’s class pool though signed last fall), and a few others. There was kid flashing at the Dominican complex whose name escapes me right now, but was impressive as an under-radar guy. Can’t remember right now.

What hurts is missing big on big expenditures like Elier Hernandez, Marten Gasparini, and Jeison Guzman. But those are the risks with playing in a market where you primarily are signing 16-year olds.

I think saying they refuse to make big trades is just inaccurate. They have to get the return they want to make a big trade, and they just haven’t been in that mode with highly valuable chips.

If you look at the returns for one-year rentals and/or at what the Tigers got mid season for JD Martinez, there’s not any “re-stocking” talent coming back in those types of moves.

None of the guys the Tigers got for Martinez is even top 10 in their middle-of-the-pack system. The Royals got better players in comp picks for Hosmer and Cain than they would have returned for half-year rentals and likely even for full-year rentals.

Merrifield is the first valuable movable piece they’ve had since the contention window closed. He’s so cheap and has so much control, they can and should sit until they get a return that’s worth Green-lighting, and that includes a top 25-50 prospect as the headline backed by a 50-100 guy and a few lotto tickets (Adam Eaton return).

It’s easy to say “trade a guy” but the match has to be there with a team willing to pay an appropriate price.
Well, I'm avoiding directly criticising them for not trading Merrifield, as I'm just beating a dead horse at this point. But I do see a huge difference between Dayton Moore and someone like Jerry Dipoto. The narrative right now from what I've seen is that the Mariners have added a huge influx of talent into their minors from their trades the past month. Perhaps we haven't had much of an opportunity to make trades, but it still seems to me like Moore is much more hesitant to pull the trigger than many other GMs. I think it's also worth contemplating why we don't have many tradable assets. If we are lacking in pieces that are valuable in a trade to other teams, is that not also a further indictment of the front office? The failures in scouting talent are just compounded when you consider that not only do we have very little talent in the big leagues and upper minors to help us win games, but that lack of talent also keeps us from making smart trades and restocking the cupboard.

I'm on board with holding on to the few tradable assets we have, but I'm also aware that we risk injury to them the longer we keep them. Danny Duffy was possibly tradable at one point, now he's an overpaid marginal starter worth very little. There's a fine line between waiting for the optimal return and waiting too long and getting nothing.
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Good article. Just as I suspected everything is Smitty's fault. Hope he burns in hell for all of eternity.
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Old 12-27-2018, 03:11 PM   #50
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That group was considered maybe the greatest farm system of all time. Even if they rebuild it up it's probably not going to be comparable to that. Same thing we used to say when we had three closers in the bullpen with 95+ heat and 1 ERAs. Hope you enjoyed it because that's probably not happening again.
kcchiefsus was a miserable **** during 2015 season.
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Old 12-27-2018, 03:34 PM   #51
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*=Rule5 so they must make the 25 man all year or else pass through waivers.
The other three have no options remaining so they either make the 25 or get DFA'd. Hahn might make it through waivers (coming off injury), so if he pitches in few ML spring games, he's being hidden for a DFA to the minors or a trip to the 60 day DL for rehab.
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Old 12-27-2018, 03:43 PM   #52
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kcchiefsus was a miserable **** during 2015 season.
I could continue to tell you that I'm not this person you say I am, but what's the point? Don't you think the moderators would remove me if I were this person you continue to accuse me of being?

Either way, what's the point of constantly derailing the conversation? Do you have anything constructive to add, or are you going to continue being a prick?
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Good article. Just as I suspected everything is Smitty's fault. Hope he burns in hell for all of eternity.
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Old 12-27-2018, 03:56 PM   #53
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I would disagree with finding nothing... though it’s debatable whether they have found enough.

In addition to Seuly Matias, the Royals have added Carlos Hernandez, Yefri Del Rosario (who was part of this year’s class pool though signed last fall), and a few others. There was kid flashing at the Dominican complex whose name escapes me right now, but was impressive as an under-radar guy. Can’t remember right now.

What hurts is missing big on big expenditures like Elier Hernandez, Marten Gasparini, and Jeison Guzman. But those are the risks with playing in a market where you primarily are signing 16-year olds.
This conversation would be 150% different if they'd signed Acuna.
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Old 12-27-2018, 04:20 PM   #54
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This conversation would be 150% different if they'd signed Acuna.
This is true, bad luck that went against us in that case. What could have been. I'm curious how he would have developed in our system.
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Good article. Just as I suspected everything is Smitty's fault. Hope he burns in hell for all of eternity.
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Old 12-27-2018, 04:25 PM   #55
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This conversation would be 150% different if they'd signed Acuna.

Acuna for 125k and Juan Soto for 4 million (instead of Jeison Guzman for 2.5) would make it quite a bit different as well.

They need to stop spending so much on glove and speed SS in Latin America. They have signed a lot if big deals for those types of players and have not had great returns.

Nothing wrong with spending on the Mondesis or Tatises, but Humberto Artaega types need to drop off the board.
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Old 01-03-2019, 10:20 AM   #56
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Prospect1500 rated the top 50 Royals prospects;

https://prospects1500.com/top-50-lis...-50-prospects/

This paragraph about Rylan Kaufman caught my eye;

Rylan Kaufman, LHP
Age: 19 (6/23/99)
2018 Highest Level: Rookie
That isn’t how you spell Kauffman. I’m not sure Rylan is spelled correctly, either. Impressively, the Royals did not sign a single high school pitcher from the 2018 draft. Kaufman, from JuCo powerhouse San Jacinto is the closest you’ll find. Drafted in the 12th round, Kaufman signed for a $722K bonus – 2nd round money. In fact, he received the 5th highest bonus in the Royals draft class, ahead of second rounder Bowlan.

Duncan, Why would the Royals give a 12th round draft pick 2nd round bonus money?
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Old 01-03-2019, 12:29 PM   #57
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:12 PM   #58
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Prospect1500 rated the top 50 Royals prospects;

https://prospects1500.com/top-50-lis...-50-prospects/

This paragraph about Rylan Kaufman caught my eye;

Rylan Kaufman, LHP
Age: 19 (6/23/99)
2018 Highest Level: Rookie
That isn’t how you spell Kauffman. I’m not sure Rylan is spelled correctly, either. Impressively, the Royals did not sign a single high school pitcher from the 2018 draft. Kaufman, from JuCo powerhouse San Jacinto is the closest you’ll find. Drafted in the 12th round, Kaufman signed for a $722K bonus – 2nd round money. In fact, he received the 5th highest bonus in the Royals draft class, ahead of second rounder Bowlan.

Duncan, Why would the Royals give a 12th round draft pick 2nd round bonus money?

Because he was a top 100, round 2-3 talent who fell because of signability concerns.
You want to take players you know will sign in rounds 1-10, because you lose the slot money if a player doesn’t sign.

If you take a few guys you know will sign for well under slot, you can then draft kids with signability questions in rounds 11+ and not be hurt if they don’t sign.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:04 PM   #59
Al Bundy Al Bundy is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Overland Park
Casino cash: $5461831

Posts: 23,306
Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Al Bundy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:12 PM   #60
OKchiefs OKchiefs is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Bundy View Post

I of course don't expect this, but we could really use some luck. Zimmer actually surprising us and finally providing some value would be huge.
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Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy View Post
Good article. Just as I suspected everything is Smitty's fault. Hope he burns in hell for all of eternity.
Posts: 5,178
OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.OKchiefs is not part of the Right 53.
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