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Old 02-26-2020, 10:28 PM  
JakeF JakeF is offline
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***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

A couple of reminders...

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Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dartgod View Post
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Bearcat; 03-25-2020 at 08:56 AM.. Reason: adding spoiler tag
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Old 07-31-2020, 05:34 PM   #41386
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If the vaccine was nearly 100% effective teachers could get it and be protected and parents could choose whether to give it to their kids but their kids could still attend school.

But if it's only partially effective, which seems likely at this point, it's hard to see allowing unvaccinated kids into schools.

Lots of angry parents in the future for sure.

If the vaccine is only partially effective, I would be in favor of making it a requirement for air travel.
The idea that the vaccine is going to be 100% effective is a pipe dream. I hope they hit 75%- 80% effective with this first batch.

I'm excited about the prospects of a vaccine but would prefer we have some sort of breakthrough with therapeutics sooner rather than later. "Oh you got covid? Here's your prescription to be filled at the pharmacy."
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Old 07-31-2020, 05:34 PM   #41387
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I think most vaccines are partially effective to some degree. Like you can still get measles even if you were vaccinated - but it's not as severe as if you didn't have the vaccination.

Also there are kids with massively compromised immune systems who can't take any vaccine.
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Old 07-31-2020, 05:44 PM   #41388
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Another 1,400 deaths in the US today. We were already over 1,000 deaths for the 7 day rolling average. I can't remember who posted that we were on track to go over 2,000 deaths a day again but they may be right.
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Old 07-31-2020, 06:13 PM   #41389
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chitownchiefsfan View Post
Another 1,400 deaths in the US today. We were already over 1,000 deaths for the 7 day rolling average. I can't remember who posted that we were on track to go over 2,000 deaths a day again but they may be right.


This a very rough analysis I did a couple weeks ago to project deaths per day by state (and total for USA). The 7DMA columns are the projected 7-day moving average of deaths per day on the date shown. So far it doesn't seem far off.

I got CFR by looking at current deaths then dividing by cases from a month before - to account for the lag between cases and deaths. 3 states at the time had 20% positivity or worse - TX/AZ/FL, and they all came in around 5% CFR using this method.

So I pegged 5% CFR to 20% positivity rate and made it proportional. IE - 10% positivity rate gets 2.5% CFR. Not super scientific obviously. But nothing really is that accurate right now.

The last column is where I set a floor of 2% CFR just to see if it would make a difference for states with very low positivity rates. It added 90 extra deaths/day. So not a huge difference.
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Old 07-31-2020, 06:32 PM   #41390
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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
That's good to hear. What kind of policies do they have in place for covid?

What worries me is stuff like the summer camp thing I posted, and just knowing that kids in general are giant germ factories who slobber all over each other all day. It seems like if schools aren't going to be big problems - it's really going to take some re-engineering of the typical school day and/or something magical about covid that keeps kids from spreading it like they do other viruses.

There's been a study posted that little kids are half as susceptible to catching covid as adults - which is great, but half is still a lot. Teenagers seem to be pretty much the same as adults as far as catching and spreading it. And they're mostly asymptomatic - which is even worse for spread since the don't know they have it.

Look at sports locker rooms - kinda like schools they've long been known as super-spreader places. Traditionally, when something gets into a locker room, everyone gets it. MLB seems to think it will be different this time for some reason. But it's looking like no locker rooms are still super-spreaders once it gets in there. They should just lock up the locker rooms imo, and have the players sit in the stands instead of the dugout. Business as usual w/o a bubble doesn't seem like it's going to work.

When I was a kid in KC public schools we'd have half the day outside sometimes when it was nice. It really seems like they should think about moving outside whenever possible, until the weather turns.
It was relatively stringent. Same teahcers in the same class all day, kids only go in the xlass or outside, all teachers and staff wear face shields, outsiders not allowed in the building, temperature scans every morning. They had one positive case that did not result in any spread.

He'll be starting kindergarten in a couple of weeks with roughly the same procedure and their plan is to do things outside as much as possible. They also installed some fancy new filtering HVAC thing (I'm not sure of the details on that)
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Old 07-31-2020, 08:04 PM   #41391
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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
Sure, but don't be surprised when they won't let unvaccinated kids into school, and a lot of countries won't let you in w/o vaccination papers.

I predict a lot of people throwing fits about that first one.
Shit, don't let them into Chiefs games either.

**** those ppl.
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Old 07-31-2020, 08:36 PM   #41392
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Hope this isn't posted already. Interesting that children seem to have less symptoms but now are showing they could spread it more easily than adults.


New Evidence Suggests Young Children Spread Covid-19 More Efficiently Than Adults

Quote:
Two new studies, though from different parts of the world, have arrived at the same conclusion: that young children not only transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently, but may be major drivers of the pandemic as well.

The first, which was published in The Lancet yesterday, reports findings from a pediatric hospital in Chicago, Illinois. The second, a preprint manuscript awaiting peer review, was conducted in the mountainous province of Trento, Italy.

The Chicago study examines the concentration of the SARS-CoV-2 in the nasopharynx, or the upper region of the throat that connects to the nasal passages, of children and adults. According to the results, children 5 years and younger who develop mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms have 10 to 100 times as much SARS-CoV-2 in the nasopharynx as older children and adults.

Whenever these young children cough, sneeze, or shout, they expel virus-laden droplets from the nasopharynx into the air. If they have as much as one hundred times the amount of virus in their throat and nasal passages as adults, it only makes sense that they would spread the virus more efficiently. The study also shows that children from the ages of 5 to 17, also with mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms, have the same amount of virus in the nasopharynx as adults age 18 and above.

The authors conclude it is likely that young children, while not as prone to suffering from Covid-19 infection, still drive its spread—just as they do with several other respiratory diseases.

The second manuscript reports the results of an extensive contact tracing study conducted in Trento, an autonomous region in Northern Italy. Despite a total lockdown that began in March with the closure of schools, universities, and all businesses except grocery stores, pharmacies, and newsstands, for more than a month the number of cases rose exponentially.

The researchers found that although young children had a somewhat lower risk of infection than adults and were less likely to become ill, children age 14 and younger transmit the virus more efficiently to other children and adults than adults themselves. Their risk of transmitting Covid-19 was 22.4 percent—more than twice that of adults aged 30 to 49, whose rate of contagiousness was about 11 percent. “Although childhood contacts were less likely to become cases,” they wrote, “children were more likely to infect household members.”

The Trento study also found that its youngest participants were the most efficient transmitters of the disease, citing respiratory syncytial virus as an example of another infectious disease for which this has been the case. The younger the child, they noted, the higher the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in their nasal passages—an observation consistent with the Chicago study.

Both studies spell serious implications for countries contemplating whether or not to reopen schools in the face of lingering and out-of-control outbreaks, the United States included. Even if children are required to keep their hands to themselves, refrain from sharing toys and supplies, and wear masks at all times, we can’t realistically expect them to follow such rules without fail. So long as misbehavior is a possibility, so too is the rampant spread of infection.

If children from ages 5 to 17 are as or possibly even more contagious than adults, then opening schools in areas where daily rates of infection remain moderate to high is extremely risky and unwise. The measures we deploy to contain the spread of Covid-19 in our schools and our communities must take the entire population into account—children age 18 and below included.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#658ea7d119fd
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Old 08-01-2020, 12:12 AM   #41393
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
Hope this isn't posted already. Interesting that children seem to have less symptoms but now are showing they could spread it more easily than adults.


New Evidence Suggests Young Children Spread Covid-19 More Efficiently Than Adults





https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#658ea7d119fd
They plan to go back to school full time here in September with HS having to wear masks between classes and such I can’t see it happening if this is the cases .
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Old 08-01-2020, 06:14 AM   #41394
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This guy wants people to wear masks for flu season now.


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10h
What to expect:
-1st wave continues to roll through the country
-Areas where schools & bars are open will be new hot spots
-Weather events will be a huge risk
-A bad flu season can be avoided with masks. Southern Hemi was mild.
-Baseball & football & NCAA will be a disaster 39/
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Old 08-01-2020, 06:30 AM   #41395
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic View Post
This guy wants people to wear masks for flu season now.


Andy Slavitt @ House with garden
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What to expect:
-1st wave continues to roll through the country
-Areas where schools & bars are open will be new hot spots
-Weather events will be a huge risk
-A bad flu season can be avoided with masks. Southern Hemi was mild.
-Baseball & football & NCAA will be a disaster 39/
We should probably still be wearing for covid at that time but flu shots would be be more helpful in avoiding bad flu season than masks in normal times , masks and social distancing would still technically help still .
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:16 AM   #41396
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You may need to update your talking points. At a national level your buddies have moved back to crowing about cases, since those are cresting while deaths are still rising.
I don’t have “talking points”, comrade.
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:47 AM   #41397
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Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
Hope this isn't posted already. Interesting that children seem to have less symptoms but now are showing they could spread it more easily than adults.


New Evidence Suggests Young Children Spread Covid-19 More Efficiently Than Adults





https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#658ea7d119fd
Read about rhat this morning. Not good.

But the timing seems weird on the infections or maybe I just misread it, but it doesn’t (to me atleast) clarify if the infections at the event were necessarily caused by the event

If that makes sense
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Old 08-01-2020, 08:53 AM   #41398
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This is very concerning:

In the initial study 100 patients from the University of Hospital Frankfurt Covid Registry – all relatively healthy adults in their 40s and 50s – 1/3 of the patients required hospitalisation during their bout with the virus. The others recovered at home.

“Researchers examined cardiac magnetic resonance imaging taken nearly two and a half months after they were diagnosed and compared them with images from people who never had Covid-19. The study found heart abnormalities in 78 patients, with 60 of those patients showing signs of inflammation in the heart muscle from the virus.”
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Old 08-01-2020, 10:16 AM   #41399
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiefnj2 View Post
This is very concerning:

In the initial study 100 patients from the University of Hospital Frankfurt Covid Registry – all relatively healthy adults in their 40s and 50s – 1/3 of the patients required hospitalisation during their bout with the virus. The others recovered at home.

“Researchers examined cardiac magnetic resonance imaging taken nearly two and a half months after they were diagnosed and compared them with images from people who never had Covid-19. The study found heart abnormalities in 78 patients, with 60 of those patients showing signs of inflammation in the heart muscle from the virus.”
1) It's unclear how one gets on the "University of Hospital Frankfurt Covid Registry". Presumably it means you must be sick enough to show up at the hospital? Although the study authors do say they had a few asymptomatic cases. But they also say the pool is not representative of asymptomatic cases. So it must not have been very many.

2) There seems to be a lot of question as to how severe the heart abnormalities they discuss really are. One of their metrics was elevated troponin levels. Apparently these are fairly common and marathon runners even experience them.

For more information:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus..._heart_damage/
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:35 AM   #41400
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They plan to go back to school full time here in September with HS having to wear masks between classes and such I can’t see it happening if this is the cases .
Between classes? So they can take them off during class? That's a fool proof plan. I see nothing wrong with that.
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