2023 Free Agency

[O.city]

Figured we could get one of these going as well.

Who's some guys we like, would like to see in KC?

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by milkshock

No you don’t get a little stabby because ‘it’s not real’. Of course wr1’s are real. They clearly exist on nfl rosters.

It’s because it’s gets in the way of the facts that we don’t have a reliable 80 catch a season guy since JuJu left, and for some reason you refuse to acknowledge this as a problem, when it really is.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No, they're not. Do teams have a 'best receiver?' Sure. Most do. A guy they 'go to' more often? Yes.

It might be partially because the offense is designed to go through the 'X', 'Y', or 'Z' receiver due to that player's skill-set.

In KC, Kelce's skill-set makes him the 100 catch guy, and nothing changes that other than eventually he'll be too old to be that guy. But a lot of it is his intelligence, so that's aging well.

As for a 'problem', no we don't have a problem because it's March. We have questions, for which the answers are not yet known.

These guys have shown they know what they're doing, I think. I'm curious to see what they put together. But no, it's not a 'problem' unless we line up to play next week.

[Chris Meck]

I think it might be as simple as the Chiefs feel that Juju's knee situation is dicey and costing him some speed and mobility.

I would think they'd be looking for a guy of that type of body and skill-set, unless they're going in another direction entirely.

[Dunerdr]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I think it might be as simple as the Chiefs feel that Juju's knee situation is dicey and costing him some speed and mobility.

I would think they'd be looking for a guy of that type of body and skill-set, unless they're going in another direction entirely.

The chiefs are being smart with their money. They have to be. Don’t take risks on people with injury risks.

[Chris Meck]

One interesting thing I'd like to point out-

Every SINGLE THING that the talking heads/analyists/NFL insiders have said about the Chiefs thus far has been incorrect.

We never intended to tag Brown. We had no intention of paying Juju. None of the guys we supposedly were 'interested in' signed here. We didn't hear dick about Taylor or Omenihu or anyone until it was a done deal.

Loose lips sink ships, and Veach is running a damned tight ship.

[Dunerdr]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

One interesting thing I'd like to point out-

Every SINGLE THING that the talking heads/analyists/NFL insiders have said about the Chiefs thus far has been incorrect.

We never intended to tag Brown. We had no intention of paying Juju. None of the guys we supposedly were 'interested in' signed here.

Loose lips sink ships, and Veach is running a damned tight ship.

This is a hell of a point. Another thing is, everyone we’ve signed looks like they’re still growing and getting better. When you believe in your coaching staff you take these shots. Young, ascending but not completely peaked yet. Ride the roller coaster to the top then get a comp pick before the big hill.

[JohnnyV13]

Originally Posted by Dunerdr

This is a hell of a point. Another thing is, everyone we’ve signed looks like they’re still growing and getting better. When you believe in your coaching staff you take these shots. Young, ascending but not completely peaked yet. Ride the roller coaster to the top then get a comp pick before the big hill.

Look, my guess is the Chiefs probably have a very detailed model of free agency, built by analytics nerds that use an internal metric something like AV (approximate value)...but instead of rated by "analysts" on PFF or ESPN, they use their scouting staff for those evaluations.

I bet Clark Hunt is all over this kind of thing. Remember, he's a finance guy, his first job out of school was working for Goldman Sachs and he tried to launch a hedge fund before he became "chairman." Building economic math models is what hedge fund guys do.

I bet a lot of front offices have built something similar, but what's unusual about the Chiefs is they're just damned disciplined in how to stick to their efficiency evaluations of when they're paying too much for the expected value.

I also suspect they're built an analytical profile of players likely to produce in FA using performance data/evaluations going back to the beginning of FA. If we could look at their "model" to identify good FA investments it would probably be something like this:

1) age 25-28
2) emerging production
3) limited injury history
4) middle round draft history
5) poor skillset fit with prior team/or coaching instability

I'd also expect it's got a clear idea of AV/dollar on the open market, and probably further breakdowns of average AV/dollar by position.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by JohnnyV13

Look, my guess is the Chiefs probably have a very detailed model of free agency, built by analytics nerds that use an internal metric something like AV (approximate value)...but instead of rated by "analysts" on PFF or ESPN, they use their scouting staff for those evaluations.

I bet Clark Hunt is all over this kind of thing. Remember, he's a finance guy, his first job out of school was working for Goldman Sachs and he tried to launch a hedge fund before he became "chairman." Building economic math models is what hedge fund guys do.

I bet a lot of front offices have built something similar, but what's unusual about the Chiefs is they're just damned disciplined in how to stick to their efficiency evaluations of when they're paying too much for the expected value.

I also suspect they're built an analytical profile of players likely to produce in FA using performance data/evaluations going back to the beginning of FA. If we could look at their "model" to identify good FA investments it would probably be something like this:

1) age 25-28
2) emerging production
3) limited injury history
4) middle round draft history
5) poor skillset fit with prior team/or coaching instability

I'd also expect it's got a clear idea of AV/dollar on the open market, and probably further breakdowns of average AV/dollar by position.

I think you're probably right.

[Dunerdr]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I think you're probably right.

I know he’s right. There’s zero doubt in my mind that the chiefs have a free agent style draft board. I’m sure they weigh health/ age/ production and cost into every move.

[JPH83]

So what do we have left to fill between FA and the draft? WRx2, DTx2, RT, DE? Doesn't look much left at DE or RT and DT is fast going. At RT the only guy i can see is perhaps Cameron Fleming as a cheap vet. Assuming that doesn't happen though. In which case I've gone from thinking we pick DE in the 1st to thinking it's much more likely to be OT. Which would be a shame as I think we'll get a much better player at DE. Thinking a DT and WR are probably the priority in FA then it's OT first round, WR or DE 2nd

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by JPH83

So what do we have left to fill between FA and the draft? WRx2, DTx2, RT, DE? Doesn't look much left at DE or RT and DT is fast going. At RT the only guy i can see is perhaps Cameron Fleming as a cheap vet. Assuming that doesn't happen though. In which case I've gone from thinking we pick DE in the 1st to thinking it's much more likely to be OT. Which would be a shame as I think we'll get a much better player at DE. Thinking a DT and WR are probably the priority in FA then it's OT first round, WR or DE 2nd

Bud Dupree, Leonard Floyd, Javeon Clowney are all out there. I also think we will draft a LT first round as a good one is likely to fall to us I think.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

Bud Dupree, Leonard Floyd, Javeon Clowney are all out there. I also think we will draft a LT first round as a good one is likely to fall to us I think.

Hmm, to be honest none inspire me, id probably prefer Ingram or Dunlap back. I'd also be pretty OK with us using the draft to fill out DE now. Not ideal but if we got an upgrade at DT, someone like Ioannides or Wormley then I think we can afford a thinner DE group, especially if Chenal is used as a rusher more.

[Couch-Potato]

I'd go with...

NT Greg Gains
WR DJ Chark
DE Javeon Clowney
RB Jerrick Mckinnon

All on relatively cheap deals, hit RT with our 1st and go BPA from there!

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

I'd go with...

NT Greg Gains
WR DJ Chark
DE Javeon Clowney
RB Jerrick Mckinnon

All on relatively cheap deals, hit RT with our 1st and go BPA from there!

If we somehow found the money we'd be better at DE by a lot, better but thinner possibly at DT. The only areas of need would be RT and then probably WR given the injury profile of that group.

[Dunerdr]

Calling it now. Dupree is this years Dunlap/Ingram. He’s 30 been on some great defenses, not a cancer that I’ve heard of, and has an injury history that probably keeps him available deeper into the off-season.

[Chief Northman]

What is the obsession with Clowney?

Guy is trash.

McKinnon and Kareem Hunt could be RB adds. A’Shawn Robinson and Gaines make sense for DL. I think D-Hop is a legitimate consideration but Veach is calling Arizona’s bluff right now. 3rd qb might be a FA or trade add (Foles for a 7th for instance).

I don’t expect many more additions leading up to the draft.