Let's Talk About the Bills (AFC Championship Edition)

[cmh6476]

They're pretty good

[Chieftain]

Just like their Super Bowl past, I've always found the Buffalo Bills team name comical. They are named after a dude from Kansas. Buffalo Bill Cody never stepped foot in the city of Buffalo or had any association with that city. So his nickname is also the name of Buffalo's football franchise. It's ridiculous.

[alanm]

Originally Posted by Chieftain

Just like their Super Bowl past, I've always found the Buffalo Bills team name comical. They are named after a dude from Kansas. Buffalo Bill Cody never stepped foot in the city of Buffalo or had any association with that city. So his nickname is also the name of Buffalo's football franchise. It's ridiculous.

Bill Cody was born in Iowa. Spent most of his time in Kansas, Wyoming, hence Cody, Wy and Nebraska where he had his ranch in North Platte. I would almost bet his Wild West show went thru Buffalo a time or two.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by alanm

Bill Cody was born in Iowa. Spent most of his time in Kansas, Wyoming, hence Cody, Wy and Nebraska where he had his ranch in North Platte. I would almost bet his Wild West show went thru Buffalo a time or two.

Yep. Born in Iowa, grew up in Kansas, died in Colorado.

AT BEST, his show stopped in upstate New York a few times.

Dumbest franchise name in the league.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

Last two years when Diggs has played the Chiefs.

2019 for the Vikings 1 catch, 4 yards and 0 td's

2020 for the Bills 6 catches, 46 yards and 1 td

So in two games combined he's gotten 7 catches for 50 yards and one td.

Let's hope Spags can work his magic again.

He not only can, he will.

Other teams scheme to take out Hill. We're going to do the same with Diggs. They'll give him special treatment and make the other guys beat us. The Bills don't have a real running game, so we're going to be in nickel with a lot of DB's.

The Bills won't break 30 points.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by dma0034

Hi, I'm a Bills fans and I'll answer these for you:

1. My guess is you'll see a mixture. Bills like to play zone but after that game against the Chiefs they decided to blitz more often. In Week 6 the Bills invited the run to prevent big plays. That worked perfectly as the Chiefs took the runs non-stop and the Bills never adjusted and looked dumb for doing it.

2. Well the big difference in this game will be Matt Milano will be playing. He is the Bills' best coverage LB. Now he isn't good enough to eliminate Kelce (no one is really) but my guess is in Man to Man Kelce will see Milano a lot. As far as Hill it is Tre White (this is maybe the only matchup from the Bills Defense compared to Chiefs offense that I'm not nervous about: as good as Hill is White is very good too). As far as your options: Watkins-Robinson-Hardman the speed is tricky. Bills do have some talented Safeties but outside of White it's difficult to say. Every week it seems like a CB is the worst player in the league or amazing (like Taron Johnson's pick six last week, he isn't that great but got lucky). This is where sending pressure is interesting. The Bills try to confuse teams with pressure looks and 90% play Zone. If the pressure forces a throw the Bills are normally in a good spot. If the pressure is picked up then Rivers picks you apart like it's practice. I'm not going to pretend that I know how well the Chiefs O-Line is but I can tell you the Bills D-Line is terrible (outside maybe Jerry Hughes), if the Chiefs OLine plays as well as the Colts OLine did against the Bills two weeks ago the Bills are probably losing this game by 14-20. So the Bills will bring pressure and gamble.

3. So a few things. Allen was playing with a seperated shoulder in his non-throwing arm for the weeks between Tenn-NYJ (KC was in that group). That combined with the weather (Mahomes missed some throws in that game too) made Allen look a lot worse than he is. He is completing 70% of his passes on the year and only completed about 50% that game. Allen is actually exceptional against the blitz. Hard to go man to man with the WRs the Bills have (it's not unlike the Chiefs, lots of speed) and I haven't seen a DB this year that can cover Diggs one on one. After the Chiefs game when Allen got healthy the Bills just decided to pass more often. Getting 1 or 2 yards a Rush was doing nothing for them and the pass gives you better results. So this team will pass, and pass, and pass some more. I will tell you that if there is bad weather (wind especially) the Bills offense will be terrible (you saw last week against the Ravens and the game against the Chiefs). If weather is good then the offense rolls because Allen can create some plays with his legs and, like Mahomes, has no limit on where he can throw the ball; the OLine has been better since getting their RG Ford out and they're a pretty solid Pass Blocking group.

4. The Bills can't run (except Allen). Their only way to beat the Chiefs is to make the Chiefs abaddon the run. I know it sounds crazy for you guys because the Chiefs Offense, especially Mahomes, are amazing but the Bills Defense can either: A. Stop the Run or B. Stop the Pass. They can do either very well but they can't do both. So in the Colts game; despite what the numbers would tell you the Bills held the Colts running game in check (until they changed their defense to stop the pass... then the Colts ran on them when the Bills were up by 14 in the 4th), they dared Rivers to beat them and he moved it down the field with ease. So if some how some way the Bills were to get a lead and the Chiefs just decided to throw it around I would expect the Bills to play zone and blitz.

Welcome. Nice post and thanks for answering questions. I believe you’re the first Bills fan to do so.

1) I hope Bills fans understand that when Chiefs fans hear someone say they’re going to blitz to pressure Mahomes, we get excited because of how excellent Mahomes has been against the blitz in his career. He has a career 115 rating against the blitz and has only thrown 2 picks his against it.

The Bills D in the first game IS the best approach to take against the Chiefs. Drop 7 every play. The only time that really is effective in limiting KC is if the team can generate pressure with its front four. Obviously, the Bills’ personnel is not configured to do that.

This matchup doesn’t favor Buffalo. If they can surprise Mahomes with some pressure, that will give them a chance... but that’s really, really difficult to do.

2) I understand Milano is your best coverage LB (tell that to Willie Mcginest, who apparently thinks it is Edmunds). But coverage LBs are just not factors against Kelce. Chiefs fans look at what Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox did to you round one 11 catches on 13 targets for more than 100 yards and a TD and lick our chops.

If the plan is to single cover Kelce with a LB, it isn’t going to work.

Tre White is awesome. If the Bills leave him on an island against Hill without help over the top, they will regret it.

If he follows Hill everywhere, he’s going to run around a lot more than in a normal game, too. There are a lot of CBs that didn’t have anything left in the tank in the 4th quarter because of that.

3) Allen being healthy and playing better is the biggest X-factor. I get this ... we tried to explain to Houston fans how big a factor that would be with Mahomes last year.

Despite the perception by many that the Chiefs pass D is awful, it’s actually the defensive strength. So this becomes a strength on strength matchup. I actually expect the Bills to make some plays - it sounds like Breeland and Fenton are full go’s for KC - we’ll get better insight on that today. If they are and KC has its full complement of DBs, Spagnuolo will again do some creative things defensively. They’re going to show Allen things that look familiar, or that look like one thing but are entirely different. How he handles that will go a long way in determining the final score.

4) teams that have presented normal boxes
to KC have been torn up by the KC passing attack. Dropping 5-6 into coverage against the Chiefs receiving group just isn’t a way to succeed consistently. You need both safeties deep.

Anyway, long story short (ha), the confidence in this forum on this game is about the matchup. The Bills currently don’t match up well against the Chiefs offense, and this is the best type of matchup for the Chiefs D.

I think the Bills will still make plays because of how good Allen and company are. They’re going to put up points. But I still see something like a 34-24/34-27 final the Chiefs way. A turnover that leads to an easy score for Buffalo is something that could turn the game.

It looks like your squad has a lot of cap space. I’d say spend it (or at least what’s left after extending Allen) on making your offense more balanced (I’m really hoping Najee Harris doesn’t fall to Buffalo at #30 in the draft) and making your front four more capable of creating pressure on its own. Move those matchups more in Buffalo’s favor, and let’s do this again next year (and the year after. And the year after.)

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Yep. Born in Iowa, grew up in Kansas, died in Colorado.

AT BEST, his show stopped in upstate New York a few times.

Dumbest franchise name in the league.

The Browns are right there too. A team named after a color? And a shitty color (pun intended) at that?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by dma0034

Hi, I'm a Bills fans and I'll answer these for you:

1. My guess is you'll see a mixture. Bills like to play zone but after that game against the Chiefs they decided to blitz more often. In Week 6 the Bills invited the run to prevent big plays. That worked perfectly as the Chiefs took the runs non-stop and the Bills never adjusted and looked dumb for doing it.

2. Well the big difference in this game will be Matt Milano will be playing. He is the Bills' best coverage LB. Now he isn't good enough to eliminate Kelce (no one is really) but my guess is in Man to Man Kelce will see Milano a lot. As far as Hill it is Tre White (this is maybe the only matchup from the Bills Defense compared to Chiefs offense that I'm not nervous about: as good as Hill is White is very good too). As far as your options: Watkins-Robinson-Hardman the speed is tricky. Bills do have some talented Safeties but outside of White it's difficult to say. Every week it seems like a CB is the worst player in the league or amazing (like Taron Johnson's pick six last week, he isn't that great but got lucky). This is where sending pressure is interesting. The Bills try to confuse teams with pressure looks and 90% play Zone. If the pressure forces a throw the Bills are normally in a good spot. If the pressure is picked up then Rivers picks you apart like it's practice. I'm not going to pretend that I know how well the Chiefs O-Line is but I can tell you the Bills D-Line is terrible (outside maybe Jerry Hughes), if the Chiefs OLine plays as well as the Colts OLine did against the Bills two weeks ago the Bills are probably losing this game by 14-20. So the Bills will bring pressure and gamble.

3. So a few things. Allen was playing with a seperated shoulder in his non-throwing arm for the weeks between Tenn-NYJ (KC was in that group). That combined with the weather (Mahomes missed some throws in that game too) made Allen look a lot worse than he is. He is completing 70% of his passes on the year and only completed about 50% that game. Allen is actually exceptional against the blitz. Hard to go man to man with the WRs the Bills have (it's not unlike the Chiefs, lots of speed) and I haven't seen a DB this year that can cover Diggs one on one. After the Chiefs game when Allen got healthy the Bills just decided to pass more often. Getting 1 or 2 yards a Rush was doing nothing for them and the pass gives you better results. So this team will pass, and pass, and pass some more. I will tell you that if there is bad weather (wind especially) the Bills offense will be terrible (you saw last week against the Ravens and the game against the Chiefs). If weather is good then the offense rolls because Allen can create some plays with his legs and, like Mahomes, has no limit on where he can throw the ball; the OLine has been better since getting their RG Ford out and they're a pretty solid Pass Blocking group.

4. The Bills can't run (except Allen). Their only way to beat the Chiefs is to make the Chiefs abaddon the run. I know it sounds crazy for you guys because the Chiefs Offense, especially Mahomes, are amazing but the Bills Defense can either: A. Stop the Run or B. Stop the Pass. They can do either very well but they can't do both. So in the Colts game; despite what the numbers would tell you the Bills held the Colts running game in check (until they changed their defense to stop the pass... then the Colts ran on them when the Bills were up by 14 in the 4th), they dared Rivers to beat them and he moved it down the field with ease. So if some how some way the Bills were to get a lead and the Chiefs just decided to throw it around I would expect the Bills to play zone and blitz.

The only thing I'm going to say here is in regards to the two parts I highlighted.

1. If, by your estimation, Mahomes "missed some throws" the Bills are in real trouble because Mahomes was 21-26 in that game - that's an 81% completion percentage.

2. See number 1. You say they can either stop the run or stop the pass. The Bills sold out to do the latter in the first game and not only gave up 250 yards rushing, they didn't actually stop the pass. Mahomes still had that monster completion percentage, 225 yards, and 2 TD's.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Welcome. Nice post and thanks for answering questions. I believe you’re the first Bills fan to do so.

1) I hope Bills fans understand that when Chiefs fans hear someone say they’re going to blitz to pressure Mahomes, we get excited because of how excellent Mahomes has been against the blitz in his career. He has a career 115 rating against the blitz and has only thrown 2 picks his against it.

The Bills D in the first game IS the best approach to take against the Chiefs. Drop 7 every play. The only time that really is effective in limiting KC is if the team can generate pressure with its front four. Obviously, the Bills’ personnel is not configured to do that.

This matchup doesn’t favor Buffalo. If they can surprise Mahomes with some pressure, that will give them a chance... but that’s really, really difficult to do.

2) I understand Milano is your best coverage LB (tell that to Willie Mcginest, who apparently thinks it is Edmunds). But coverage LBs are just not factors against Kelce. Chiefs fans look at what Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox did to you round one 11 catches on 13 targets for more than 100 yards and a TD and lick our chops.

If the plan is to single cover Kelce with a LB, it isn’t going to work.

Tre White is awesome. If the Bills leave him on an island against Hill without help over the top, they will regret it.

If he follows Hill everywhere, he’s going to run around a lot more than in a normal game, too. There are a lot of CBs that didn’t have anything left in the tank in the 4th quarter because of that.

3) Allen being healthy and playing better is the biggest X-factor. I get this ... we tried to explain to Houston fans how big a factor that would be with Mahomes last year.

Despite the perception by many that the Chiefs pass D is awful, it’s actually the defensive strength. So this becomes a strength on strength matchup. I actually expect the Bills to make some plays - it sounds like Breeland and Fenton are full go’s for KC - we’ll get better insight on that today. If they are and KC has its full complement of DBs, Spagnuolo will again do some creative things defensively. They’re going to show Allen things that look familiar, or that look like one thing but are entirely different. How he handles that will go a long way in determining the final score.

4) teams that have presented normal boxes
to KC have been torn up by the KC passing attack. Dropping 5-6 into coverage against the Chiefs receiving group just isn’t a way to succeed consistently. You need both safeties deep.

Anyway, long story short (ha), the confidence in this forum on this game is about the matchup. The Bills currently don’t match up well against the Chiefs offense, and this is the best type of matchup for the Chiefs D.

I think the Bills will still make plays because of how good Allen and company are. They’re going to put up points. But I still see something like a 34-24/34-27 final the Chiefs way. A turnover that leads to an easy score for Buffalo is something that could turn the game.

It looks like your squad has a lot of cap space. I’d say spend it (or at least what’s left after extending Allen) on making your offense more balanced (I’m really hoping Najee Harris doesn’t fall to Buffalo at #30 in the draft) and making your front four more capable of creating pressure on its own. Move those matchups more in Buffalo’s favor, and let’s do this again next year (and the year after. And the year after.)

Buffalo is paying a lot of average joe's big money. So their cap is not all that great once you figure in:

Josh Allen will now get mega extension
Stephon Diggs will want a large raise
Daryl Williams is only getting paid 2 million on a 1 year deal, he's worth 12 million+ in FA (Chiefs should target him if Schwartz is done)
Matt Milano wants large contract
Tremaine Edmunds will want a large contract

I bet they let John Brown go because they are doing dumb things like paying Star Lotulelei 10 million a year (he's not as good as Mike Pennel who we pay 1 or 2 million).

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Buffalo is paying a lot of average joe's big money. So their cap is not all that great once you figure in:

Josh Allen will now get mega extension
Stephon Diggs will want a large raise
Daryl Williams is only getting paid 2 million on a 1 year deal, he's worth 12 million+ in FA (Chiefs should target him if Schwartz is done)
Matt Milano wants large contract
Tremaine Edmunds will want a large contract

I bet they let John Brown go because they are doing dumb things like paying Star Lotulelei 10 million a year (he's not as good as Mike Pennel who we pay 1 or 2 million).

1. They're already talking about an either/or situation with Williams and Milano.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...n-all-32-teams

2. We won't be able to afford Williams at that price tag.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

1. They're already talking about an either/or situation with Williams and Milano.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...n-all-32-teams

2. We won't be able to afford Williams at that price tag.

If we aren't paying Schwartz we should be able to.

Don't know the details if we do injury settlement or if he retires.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

If we aren't paying Schwartz we should be able to.

Don't know the details if we do injury settlement or if he retires.

Getting rid of Schwartz, whether cutting him or him retiring, would cost us a net $3.75M. We'd only save about $4M but take a $7M instant dead cap hit.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by dma0034

Hi, I'm a Bills fans and I'll answer these for you:

1. My guess is you'll see a mixture. Bills like to play zone but after that game against the Chiefs they decided to blitz more often. In Week 6 the Bills invited the run to prevent big plays. That worked perfectly as the Chiefs took the runs non-stop and the Bills never adjusted and looked dumb for doing it.

2. Well the big difference in this game will be Matt Milano will be playing. He is the Bills' best coverage LB. Now he isn't good enough to eliminate Kelce (no one is really) but my guess is in Man to Man Kelce will see Milano a lot. As far as Hill it is Tre White (this is maybe the only matchup from the Bills Defense compared to Chiefs offense that I'm not nervous about: as good as Hill is White is very good too). As far as your options: Watkins-Robinson-Hardman the speed is tricky. Bills do have some talented Safeties but outside of White it's difficult to say. Every week it seems like a CB is the worst player in the league or amazing (like Taron Johnson's pick six last week, he isn't that great but got lucky). This is where sending pressure is interesting. The Bills try to confuse teams with pressure looks and 90% play Zone. If the pressure forces a throw the Bills are normally in a good spot. If the pressure is picked up then Rivers picks you apart like it's practice. I'm not going to pretend that I know how well the Chiefs O-Line is but I can tell you the Bills D-Line is terrible (outside maybe Jerry Hughes), if the Chiefs OLine plays as well as the Colts OLine did against the Bills two weeks ago the Bills are probably losing this game by 14-20. So the Bills will bring pressure and gamble.

3. So a few things. Allen was playing with a seperated shoulder in his non-throwing arm for the weeks between Tenn-NYJ (KC was in that group). That combined with the weather (Mahomes missed some throws in that game too) made Allen look a lot worse than he is. He is completing 70% of his passes on the year and only completed about 50% that game. Allen is actually exceptional against the blitz. Hard to go man to man with the WRs the Bills have (it's not unlike the Chiefs, lots of speed) and I haven't seen a DB this year that can cover Diggs one on one. After the Chiefs game when Allen got healthy the Bills just decided to pass more often. Getting 1 or 2 yards a Rush was doing nothing for them and the pass gives you better results. So this team will pass, and pass, and pass some more. I will tell you that if there is bad weather (wind especially) the Bills offense will be terrible (you saw last week against the Ravens and the game against the Chiefs). If weather is good then the offense rolls because Allen can create some plays with his legs and, like Mahomes, has no limit on where he can throw the ball; the OLine has been better since getting their RG Ford out and they're a pretty solid Pass Blocking group.

4. The Bills can't run (except Allen). Their only way to beat the Chiefs is to make the Chiefs abaddon the run. I know it sounds crazy for you guys because the Chiefs Offense, especially Mahomes, are amazing but the Bills Defense can either: A. Stop the Run or B. Stop the Pass. They can do either very well but they can't do both. So in the Colts game; despite what the numbers would tell you the Bills held the Colts running game in check (until they changed their defense to stop the pass... then the Colts ran on them when the Bills were up by 14 in the 4th), they dared Rivers to beat them and he moved it down the field with ease. So if some how some way the Bills were to get a lead and the Chiefs just decided to throw it around I would expect the Bills to play zone and blitz.

First off, I really appreciate a Bills fan that has answered the questions! Very refreshing

Now with that, here's my viewpoints. NOTE: I always caveat that it's football, and any given Sunday of course, but my write up doesn't account for "unexpected" bounces, injuries, etc.

1. Most Chiefs fans are hoping that the Bills try to Blitz more....that creates more one on one mismatches with your secondary and allows us to utilize the deep ball. Mahomes has been one of the best against blitzes, and is very calm under pressure for the most part. Also, if you aren't able to get home, this is where Pat can get out of the pocket and do damage. Sending more bodies on blitzes puts more pressure on the back end....

2. Milano is not stopping Kelce (you noted this), and people are fooling yourself if they think that's the case (that would be like Chiefs fans saying "We didn't have Sneed last time, and now he's going to shut down Diggs"). Also, what Bills fans are saying about White is exactly what Browns fans said about Ward. We haven't mentioned Watkins yet (who didn't play in the first game and looks to be playing in this one), nor the combo of Hardman/Robinson/Pringle, all of who were just fine the first time around....I will also say that, because the Chiefs were so committed to the run last game, that they didn't do a lot of their mis-direction stuff: Jet sweeps, crazy motions designed to get guys in space. I don't think it was any purposeful effort to not do those things, I just think the Chiefs didn't need to do them. They lined up and ran right at the Bills for 250.

3. Bills fans love to throw out "Allen's shoulder".....sure, he was in a brace, but I saw plenty of designed runs and RPO plays called in that week 6 game. That isn't the sign of a team trying to "protect" their injured QB. I think it's an excuse for Allen's poor performance. I'm not saying it didn't impact him at all, but he was hardly injured to the point he couldn't throw the ball, and again, the Bills felt compelled enough to run him. The excuse that this was a significant thing is silly. Dude ran the ball 8 times for 42 yards and was the leading rusher.....again, many on designed runs. Allen was fine....

4. Given number 3 above: To me, the Bills are a one dimensional team. They do that dimension very well obviously, but their strengths line up well with the Chiefs Strengths (pass O on pass D). the Chiefs D is vulnerable in the run game, and the Bills have more than proven that they can't do it. But the Chiefs group of DBs collectively play very well together, and match up well collectively with the Bills. Outside of Diggs, nobody is scared of Beasly, Davis, Brown, Knox, Mckenzie....they are role players for the most part (OK, Beasley is a little more than that) and our role players match up very well. Take away the passing O, and what do the Bills have left? Oh yeah, and the Chiefs didn't have to abandon how they played D. They too need to generate pressure by blitzing, and do it a lot. But they also disguise coverages well. they didn't have to sit back in a soft zone and expose the front four to stop the Bills D....


5. Now, flip the switch: Bills played D to take away the deep threat, and the Chiefs ran all over you. I didn't note one blitz on a passing play when I re-watched the game last night, and I think somebody else confirmed 0% blitzing by the Bills. The Bills obviously were taking away the pass, and even that didn't work. But the Chiefs adapted and ran the ball. Obviously, the Chiefs can run the ball when/if they commit to it. I'll also note that, for most of the first game, even with the Bills dropping 7 each time, the Chiefs still were able to pick up a quick 5-6-7 yards when they wanted or needed it. You start putting more bodies on the line, the Chiefs can and will go over the top....Pat was not impacted very much at all in that game....he was 21 / 26 for 225 (even after considering that the Chiefs put up 250 on the ground.

6. At the end of the Day, the Chiefs didn't have to change who they are and what they do to beat the Bills. The Bills did have to change who they are and what they do (at least on Defense) and still lost by two scores. the Chiefs methodically dismantled them the first game, and nothing much has changed that will prevent it a second time. That's not a rub on the Bills, they are a very nice team, and have played really well......It's a testament to just how poorly most, if not all, NFL teams match up against the Chiefs. It's not impossible for the Bills to win, but the chips are stacked way against this squad. With that said, Bills fans should be proud and excited about their team!

So, given all that, I do expect the Bills to "go all out" in this game. Send pressure, try to hit Pat, and certainly don't allow the run game to gash them. But that is going to leave them very exposed, and they aren't playing noodle armed, slow processing Lamar Jackson this week. They are going to get burned. When the Bills have the ball, I just don't see anything that is going to change. The Chiefs are still going to manufacture their pressure, and they have the juice in the defense backfield to get a few stops. And the Chiefs don't need to shut down the Bills, they just need to limit them.

Finally, and I've said this earlier: After watching several Bills games yesterday evening (including last week's Ravens, and Week 6 Chiefs), the Bills are closer to the Browns than they are the Chiefs.....sorry, but that's what it is

Don't let all those regular season wins, and post-season wins over the Colts and Ravens boost your heads up......If you can beat the Chiefs, then everyone will give you your props.....

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Welcome. Nice post and thanks for answering questions. I believe you’re the first Bills fan to do so.

1) I hope Bills fans understand that when Chiefs fans hear someone say they’re going to blitz to pressure Mahomes, we get excited because of how excellent Mahomes has been against the blitz in his career. He has a career 115 rating against the blitz and has only thrown 2 picks his against it.

The Bills D in the first game IS the best approach to take against the Chiefs. Drop 7 every play. The only time that really is effective in limiting KC is if the team can generate pressure with its front four. Obviously, the Bills’ personnel is not configured to do that.

This matchup doesn’t favor Buffalo. If they can surprise Mahomes with some pressure, that will give them a chance... but that’s really, really difficult to do.

2) I understand Milano is your best coverage LB (tell that to Willie Mcginest, who apparently thinks it is Edmunds). But coverage LBs are just not factors against Kelce. Chiefs fans look at what Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox did to you round one 11 catches on 13 targets for more than 100 yards and a TD and lick our chops.

If the plan is to single cover Kelce with a LB, it isn’t going to work.

Tre White is awesome. If the Bills leave him on an island against Hill without help over the top, they will regret it.

If he follows Hill everywhere, he’s going to run around a lot more than in a normal game, too. There are a lot of CBs that didn’t have anything left in the tank in the 4th quarter because of that.

3) Allen being healthy and playing better is the biggest X-factor. I get this ... we tried to explain to Houston fans how big a factor that would be with Mahomes last year.

Despite the perception by many that the Chiefs pass D is awful, it’s actually the defensive strength. So this becomes a strength on strength matchup. I actually expect the Bills to make some plays - it sounds like Breeland and Fenton are full go’s for KC - we’ll get better insight on that today. If they are and KC has its full complement of DBs, Spagnuolo will again do some creative things defensively. They’re going to show Allen things that look familiar, or that look like one thing but are entirely different. How he handles that will go a long way in determining the final score.

4) teams that have presented normal boxes
to KC have been torn up by the KC passing attack. Dropping 5-6 into coverage against the Chiefs receiving group just isn’t a way to succeed consistently. You need both safeties deep.

Anyway, long story short (ha), the confidence in this forum on this game is about the matchup. The Bills currently don’t match up well against the Chiefs offense, and this is the best type of matchup for the Chiefs D.

I think the Bills will still make plays because of how good Allen and company are. They’re going to put up points. But I still see something like a 34-24/34-27 final the Chiefs way. A turnover that leads to an easy score for Buffalo is something that could turn the game.

It looks like your squad has a lot of cap space. I’d say spend it (or at least what’s left after extending Allen) on making your offense more balanced (I’m really hoping Najee Harris doesn’t fall to Buffalo at #30 in the draft) and making your front four more capable of creating pressure on its own. Move those matchups more in Buffalo’s favor, and let’s do this again next year (and the year after. And the year after.)

Very nice post.....covered a lot of what I said in mine (should have read down first!)

[Hammock Parties]

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

love the dead Buffalo with it's dead tongue hanging out, laying on a busted table.....very nice!