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Old 05-21-2020, 07:30 PM  
displacedinMN displacedinMN is offline
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One of the new rule proposals....

The proposal that would give teams another option instead of an onside kick permits a team to maintain possession of the ball after a score by substituting one offensive play. The kicking team would attempt a fourth-and-15 from its 25-yard line. This could be done a maximum of two times per game.

Onside kicks have become infrequent and hardly ever successful since the NFL changed rules on alignments for kickoffs.
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Old 05-22-2020, 04:42 PM   #16
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Old 05-23-2020, 05:42 PM   #17
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Old 05-23-2020, 10:12 PM   #18
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Old 05-24-2020, 05:43 PM   #19
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I don't think the NFL has given enough thought to where the play should begin. The explanation their analysts offer here doesn't mention the expected value of different parts of the field, such as are described here.
According to the NFL's explanation, they estimated the success probabilities of the onside kick and the 4th and 15 play to be 13.2% and 16.8% respectively. But let's incorporate the expected value of the field position to get a rough sense of the expected payoff.
For an onside kick from the 35, whichever team gets the ball is going to be around the 50, where the expected points added (EPA) is about 1.5, so the kicking team that elects to go for an onside kick is looking at a 13.2% chance to win 1.5 EPA versus a 86.8% chance to lose 1.5 EPA, an expected payoff of -1.1 EPA. The negative value is why you don't see teams go for onside kicks very often, of course.

For a 4th and 15 from the 25, let's say that a conversion also puts you around the 50, a generous assumption, so you can get 1.5 expected points. If you fail, though, the opponent will be starting from inside the 40, so has an EPA of at least 2 points, so the expected payoff for the team that decides to go for it would be
(16.8% * 1.5 EPA ) - (83.2% * 2 EPA ) = -1.4 EPA
.

So, from an expected payoff standpoint, it's less attractive to go for it with a 4th and 15 than with an onside kick.

Of course, these are just averages and I'm using them in just a very rough way to evaluate whether we might see more attempts from the scoring team to retain possession. My guess is that we definitely won't see more during the first 3 quarters, even though then the probability of success for an onside kick may be a bit higher due to the element of surprise. I wouldn't be surprised if in the 4th quarter, there isn't an overall increase, either. Late in games when teams are desperate, there might be some teams that are more willing to go for it with a 4th and 15 play than they are with an onside kick. I'd be comfortable with Mahomes going for it, because he's the best player I've ever seen. Of course, if your QB is good enough to give you confidence to take a 4th and 15 shot, you're probably not going to be in many desperate late-game situations.

Denver proposed this rule originally and wanted to start from the 35. That may be too far forward, but I think 25 is too far back, if the goal is to increase more attempts to keep the ball after scoring.
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Old 05-24-2020, 06:27 PM   #20
displacedinMN displacedinMN is offline
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Of course, if your QB is good enough to give you confidence to take a 4th and 15 shot, you're probably not going to be in many desperate late-game situations.

Denver proposed this rule originally and wanted to start from the 35. That may be too far forward, but I think 25 is too far back, if the goal is to increase more attempts to keep the ball after scoring.
yup. So to me, it means if you fail on the 4th/15 on the 25. Does the other team get the ball at the 25? Sounds almost like a disincentive.....and more of an incentive to kick deep.
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Old 05-24-2020, 06:40 PM   #21
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yup. So to me, it means if you fail on the 4th/15 on the 25. Does the other team get the ball at the 25? Sounds almost like a disincentive.....and more of an incentive to kick deep.
The rule proposal says that the other team would get the ball at the "dead ball spot", which is where the play ended.
Here's a page that has an image with the current proposal: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-updates...ng-requirement
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Old 05-24-2020, 06:53 PM   #22
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Perfect scenario is where we score before the half with about 45 seconds left, do this fourth down conversion thing, score, then get the ball to start the second half. With Mahomes, you do that every time you can. Yeah, I don’t see this one making it after the way Mahomes dominated long yardage situations on 3rd downs.

Yes, the current rule proposal can make for some interesting end-of-first-half situations for a confident team. Currently, the proposal would limit each team to two chances per game to retain possession by doing a 4th and 15 from their own 25. A confident team might make going for it when they scored late in the first half a matter of routine. Heck, if there are only a few ticks left, it's practically a free chance to go for a Hail Mary, because the current proposal would start the play clock at the snap.

The NFL hasn't really thought through all the angles on this, yet, but I suspect that they'll be able to come up with some tweaks and make this work.
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Old 05-24-2020, 06:55 PM   #23
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ok.

So then the Chargers score, make it 45-35 with 3 minutes left.
go for it 4/15. get to the 28. *yes our D can do that

We get the ball. Score again.

Sounds like a good scenario too

This proposal makes it more likely teams will want to kick it long. No one wants to put our O on the 28 yard line.
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